Background Rising antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a threat to modern medicine, and increasing international mobility facilitates the spread of AMR. Infections with resistant organisms have higher morbidity and mortality, are costlier to treat, result in longer hospital stays and place a greater burden on health systems than infections caused by susceptible organisms. Here we review the role of travel in the international dissemination of AMR and consider actions at the levels of travelers, travel medicine practitioners and policymakers that would mitigate this threat. Results Resistant pathogens do not recognize international borders; travelers to areas with high AMR prevalence are likely to be exposed to resistant bacteria and return to their home countries colonized. Medical tourists go between health facilities with drastically different rates of AMR, potentially transmitting highly resistant strains. Drug-resistant bacteria have been found in every continent; however, differences between countries in the prevalence of AMR depend on multiple factors. These include levels of antibiotic consumption (including inappropriate use), access to clean water, adequate sanitation, vaccination coverage, the availability of quality healthcare and access to high-quality medical products. Conclusions Travelers to areas with high levels of AMR should have vaccines up to date, be aware of ways of treating and preventing travelers’ diarrhea (other than antibiotic use) and be informed on safe sexual practices. The healthcare systems of low- and middle-income countries require investment to reduce the transmission of resistant strains by improving access to clean water, sanitation facilities and vaccines. Efforts are needed to curb inappropriate antibiotic use worldwide. In addition, more surveillance is needed to understand the role of the movement of humans, livestock and food products in resistance transmission. The travel medicine community has a key role to play in advocating for the recognition of AMR as a priority on the international health agenda. Key policy recommendations AMR is a threat to modern medicine, and international travel plays a key role in the spread of highly resistant strains. It is essential that this is addressed at multiple levels. Individual travelers can reduce antibiotic consumption and the likelihood of infection. Travelers should have up-to-date vaccines and be informed on methods of preventing and treating travelers’ diarrhea, other than use of antibiotics and on safe sexual practices, such as condom use. Healthcare facilities need to be aware of the travel history of patients to provide appropriate treatment to those who are at high risk of exposure and to prevent further spread. Internationally, in countries without reliable and universal access to clean water, sanitation and hygiene, investment is needed to reduce the emergence and spread of resistance and ensure the antimicrobials available are of assured quality. High-income countries must ensure their use of antimicrobials is appropriate to reduce selection for AMR. Surveillance across all countries is needed to monitor and respond to this emerging threat.

Background The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic is an emerging threat across the African continent where national critical care capacity is underdeveloped or unknown. In this paper, we compile data on critical care capacity -- including number of ICU beds, number of ventilators, and number of physician and non-physician anesthesia providers -- for 54 African countries. Methods Data was compiled from a variety of resources including World Bank databases, local and international news media, government reports, local healthcare workers, and published scientific literature. Results Overall, data on number of ICU beds were available for 49 (91%) countries and on number of ventilators for 46 (85%) countries, respectively. Data on physician anesthesia providers and non-physician providers was available for 47 (87%) and 37 (69%) of the 54 African countries. Conclusion Most low and lower middle-income African countries have limited critical care capacity available to cope with potential surges in critical care demand due to COVID-19 outbreaks. Keywords: COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, critical care capacity, ICU, ventilators, Africa

ObjectivesAs of 13 January 2021, there have been 3 113 963 confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 and 74 619 deaths across the African continent. Despite relatively lower numbers of cases initially, many African countries are now experiencing an exponential increase in case numbers. Estimates of the progression of disease and potential impact of different interventions are needed to inform policymaking decisions. Herein, we model the possible trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 in 52 African countries under different intervention scenarios.DesignWe developed a compartmental model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to estimate the COVID-19 case burden for all African countries while considering four scenarios: no intervention, moderate lockdown, hard lockdown and hard lockdown with continued restrictions once lockdown is lifted. We further analysed the potential impact of COVID-19 on vulnerable populations affected by HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis (TB).ResultsIn the absence of an intervention, the most populous countries had the highest peaks in active projected number of infections with Nigeria having an estimated 645 081 severe infections. The scenario with a hard lockdown and continued post-lockdown interventions to reduce transmission was the most efficacious strategy for delaying the time to the peak and reducing the number of cases. In South Africa, projected peak severe infections increase from 162 977 to 2 03 261, when vulnerable populations with HIV/AIDS and TB are included in the analysis.ConclusionThe COVID-19 pandemic is rapidly spreading across the African continent. Estimates of the potential impact of interventions and burden of disease are essential for policymakers to make evidence-based decisions on the distribution of limited resources and to balance the economic costs of interventions with the potential for saving lives.

ObjectiveThe purpose of this analysis was to describe national critical care capacity shortages for 52 African countries and to outline needs for each country to adequately respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.MethodsA modified SECIR compartment model was used to estimate the number of severe COVID-19 cases at the peak of the outbreak. Projections of the number of hospital beds, ICU beds, and ventilators needed at outbreak peak were generated for four scenarios – if 30, 50, 70, or 100% of patients with severe COVID-19 symptoms seek health services—assuming that all people with severe infections would require hospitalization, that 4.72% would require ICU admission, and that 2.3% would require mechanical ventilation.FindingsAcross the 52 countries included in this analysis, the average number of severe COVID-19 cases projected at outbreak peak was 138 per 100,000 (SD: 9.6). Comparing current national capacities to estimated needs at outbreak peak, we found that 31of 50 countries (62%) do not have a sufficient number of hospital beds per 100,000 people if 100% of patients with severe infections seek out health services and assuming that all hospital beds are empty and available for use by patients with COVID-19. If only 30% of patients seek out health services then 10 of 50 countries (20%) do not have sufficient hospital bed capacity. The average number of ICU beds needed at outbreak peak across the 52 included countries ranged from 2 per 100,000 people (SD: 0.1) when 30% of people with severe COVID-19 infections access health services to 6.5 per 100,000 (SD: 0.5) assuming 100% of people seek out health services. Even if only 30% of severely infected patients seek health services at outbreak peak, then 34 of 48 countries (71%) do not have a sufficient number of ICU beds per 100,000 people to handle projected need. Only four countries (Cabo Verde, Egypt, Gabon, and South Africa) have a sufficient number of ventilators to meet projected national needs if 100% of severely infected individuals seek health services assuming all ventilators are functioning and available for COVID-19 patients, while 35 other countries require two or more additional ventilators per 100,000 people.ConclusionThe majority of countries lack sufficient ICU bed and ventilator capacity to care for the projected number of patients with severe COVID-19 infections at outbreak peak even if only 30% of severely infected patients seek health services.This analysis reveals there is an urgent need to allocate resources and increase critical care capacity in these countries.

No abstract