Estimating the solar wind conditions during an extreme geomagnetic storm: a case study of the event that occurred on March 13–14, 1989

Nagatsuma, Tsutomu; Kataoka, Ryuho; Kunitake, Manabu

doi:10.1186/s40623-015-0249-4

Cited by 21 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 30 publications

(32 reference statements)

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“…This event has been used as a historical benchmark from a scientific perspective (Wei et al, ) as well as a reference event for power grid reliability legislation (North American Electric Reliability Corporation, ). However, solar wind measurements were sparse (Nagatsuma et al, ) and the spatial coverage provided by ground‐based magnetometers was far below current levels. (Ngwira et al, ) As noted above, global simulations are difficult without solar wind observations, and the fidelity of modeling GIC strongly depends on the distance from available magnetometer data to the power grid infrastructure (Butala et al, ).…”

Section: Benchmarking and Forecastingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Challenges and Opportunities in Magnetospheric Space Weather Prediction

Morley

2020

Space Weather

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Space Weather is the study of the dynamics of the coupled Solar‐Terrestrial environment, as these dynamics impact technological systems and human activity. This paper reviews a selection of the advances, challenges, and new opportunities for magnetospheric space weather, and while the focus is on specific phenomena, many other aspects of space weather will have similar challenges and needs. As a scientific field with direct applications, the field of space weather is partly driven by imperatives from both policy and operations. We provide an introduction to some of the context in which the field exists and discuss how this might shape future developments and norms within the space weather enterprise. We briefly examine benchmarking, as a policy and operationally driven activity, as it provides immediate societal relevance and an opportunity to stretch scientific understanding. As numerical space weather prediction now becomes routine, and exascale computing is in the near future, we identify challenges relating to computational expense and big data, capturing and accounting for uncertainties, and specification of boundary conditions. Here, as with the observations supporting numerical space weather prediction, the key challenge lies in extending the lead time of predictions. We also discuss the role of data, particularly in regard to model validation and empirical modeling. Due to the growing societal impact of space weather, we also examine the relationships between space weather and its terrestrial counterpart and look at the importance of continuous evaluation, monitoring progress in predictive capability, and communication with researchers, forecasters, and end users.

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Section: Benchmarking and Forecastingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Challenges and Opportunities in Magnetospheric Space Weather Prediction

Morley

2020

Space Weather

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“…(a) The VBs obtained from the Dst index, represented by the thick black line, and VBs obtained from GOES 06 and 07 observations with the estimated solar wind speed during 13 and 14 March (Nagatsuma et al, ). (b) The ∆ H GUAM‐LNP (difference between the H horizontal component at equator GUAM and nonequator station LNP).…”

Section: Observation and Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

East‐West Difference in the Ionospheric Response of the March 1989 Great Magnetic Storm Throughout East Asian Region

et al. 2019

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The effects of the 13–14 March 1989 great magnetic storm on the East Asian ionosphere have been re‐investigated using ground‐based and satellite measurements as well as theoretical simulation. Within introduction of new data like the Chinese ionosondes and DMSP F8 and F9 and low‐equatorial magnetometer data, we are able to track the ionospheric response at both the bottomside and topside ionosphere from middle to low latitude to obtain an overall understanding of storm‐time ionospheric change. Through the comparative study of different longitude bands, we found that the East‐Asian ionosphere was characterized by a strong westward electron density gradient persisting over a day at both the bottomside and topside ionosphere at mid‐low latitudes during the main and recovery phases of the storm. This feature was not studied in the previous literature for this event at this area. We then examine the effect through a numerical simulation work from the Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model under Apex and Dipole geomagnetic fields. It is seen that the model well reproduces the zonal gradients during this event under realistic geomagnetic field model. The conditions favor for this structure requires a hemispheric asymmetry response of storm thermosphere as well as background condition and also the storm development which requires further investigation. This study shows that even very close stations would manifest totally different storm behaviors during the superstorm event suggesting a great challenge in the space weather prediction.

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“…The solar wind parameters were not very extreme at the time of the 1989 storm. For example, Nagatsuma et al (2015) estimated that the solar wind speed of 960 km/s and southward interplanetary magnetic field Bz of −50 nT continuing for 5 h drove the main phase of the March 1989 storm, whereas Lakhina and Tsurutani (2016) indicated that the interplanetary driver of the March 1989 storm included multiple shocks, multiple sheaths, and multiple magnetic clouds. It is therefore reasonable to assume that a perfect "slot machine"-type combination of solar wind parameters sometimes results from the complex interactions of chains of coronal mass ejections during their propagation in the solar wind (Cid et al 2014;Kataoka et al 2015).…”

Section: Rc-type Slow Gicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme geomagnetically induced currents

Kataoka

Ngwira

2016

Prog. in Earth and Planet. Sci.

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We propose an emergency alert framework for geomagnetically induced currents (GICs), based on the empirically extreme values and theoretical upper limits of the solar wind parameters and of dB/dt, the time derivative of magnetic field variations at ground. We expect this framework to be useful for preparing against extreme events. Our analysis is based on a review of various papers, including those presented during Extreme Space Weather Workshops held in Japan in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014. Large-amplitude dB/dt values are the major cause of hazards associated with three different types of GICs: (1) slow dB/dt with ring current evolution (RC-type), (2) fast dB/dt associated with auroral electrojet activity (AE-type), and (3) transient dB/dt of sudden commencements (SC-type). We set "caution," "warning," and "emergency" alert levels during the main phase of superstorms with the peak Dst index of less than −300 nT (once per 10 years), −600 nT (once per 60 years), or −900 nT (once per 100 years), respectively. The extreme dB/dt values of the AE-type GICs are 2000, 4000, and 6000 nT/min at caution, warning, and emergency levels, respectively. For the SCtype GICs, a "transient alert" is also proposed for dB/dt values of 40 nT/s at low latitudes and 110 nT/s at high latitudes, especially when the solar energetic particle flux is unusually high.

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Estimating the solar wind conditions during an extreme geomagnetic storm: a case study of the event that occurred on March 13–14, 1989

Cited by 21 publications

References 30 publications

Challenges and Opportunities in Magnetospheric Space Weather Prediction

Challenges and Opportunities in Magnetospheric Space Weather Prediction

East‐West Difference in the Ionospheric Response of the March 1989 Great Magnetic Storm Throughout East Asian Region

Extreme geomagnetically induced currents

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