Estimating the infection and case fatality ratio for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using age-adjusted data from the outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, February 2020

Russell, Timothy; Hellewell, Joel; Jarvis, Christopher I; Zandvoort, Kevin van; Abbott, Sam; Ratnayake, Ruwan; Flasche, Stefan; Eggo, Rosalind M; Edmunds, W. John; Kucharski, Adam J.

doi:10.2807/1560-7917.es.2020.25.12.2000256

Cited by 408 publications

(343 citation statements)

References 7 publications

(16 reference statements)

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“…2D and table S2). Our estimate of overall IFR is similar to other recent studies that found values of between 0.5 and 0.7% for the Chinese epidemic (6)(7)(8). We find men have a consistently higher risk than women of hospitalization (RR 1.25, 95% CrI: 1.22-1.29), ICU admission once hospitalized (RR: 1.61, 95% CrI: 1.56-1.67) and death following hospitalization (RR: 1.47, 95% CrI: 1.42-1.53) ( fig.…”

supporting

confidence: 91%

Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France

Salje

Kiem

Lefrancq

et al. 2020

Science

1,047

165

1,341

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France has been heavily affected by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic and went into lockdown on 17 March 2020. Using models applied to hospital and death data, we estimate the impact of the lockdown and current population immunity. We find that 2.9% of infected individuals are hospitalized and 0.5% of those infected die (95% credible interval: 0.3 to 0.9%), ranging from 0.001% in those under 20 years of age to 8.3% in those 80 years of age or older. Across all ages, men are more likely to be hospitalized, enter intensive care, and die than women. The lockdown reduced the reproductive number from 2.90 to 0.67 (77% reduction). By 11 May 2020, when interventions are scheduled to be eased, we project that 3.5 million people (range: 2.1 million to 6.0 million), or 5.3% of the population (range: 3.3 to 9.3%), will have been infected. Population immunity appears to be insufficient to avoid a second wave if all control measures are released at the end of the lockdown.

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supporting

confidence: 91%

Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France

Salje

Kiem

Lefrancq

et al. 2020

Science

1,047

165

1,341

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“…These values for the IFR are consistent with the findings in [2] (0.66% in China) and [3] (0.9% in the UK). The value of 1.3% estimated on the Diamond Princess cruise ship [4] falls above the top end of our 95% CI. This reflects the age distribution on the ship, which was skewed towards older individuals (mean age: 58 years), among whom the IFR is higher [3,4].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 41%

“…Based on the PCR-confirmed cases in international residents repatriated from China on January 2020, Verity et al [2] obtained an estimate of the infection fatality ratio (IFR) of 0.66% in China, and, adjusting for non-uniform attack rates by age, an IFR of 0.9% was obtained in the UK [3]. Using data from the quarantined Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan and correcting for delays between confirmation and death, Russel et al [4] obtained an IFR of 1.3%.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using Early Data to Estimate the Actual Infection Fatality Ratio from COVID-19 in France

Roques

Klein

Papaïx

et al. 2020

Biology

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The number of screening tests carried out in France and the methodology used to target the patients tested do not allow for a direct computation of the actual number of cases and the infection fatality ratio (IFR). The main objective of this work is to estimate the actual number of people infected with COVID-19 and to deduce the IFR during the observation window in France. We develop a 'mechanistic-statistical' approach coupling a SIR epidemiological model describing the unobserved epidemiological dynamics, a probabilistic model describing the data acquisition process and a statistical inference method. The actual number of infected cases in France is probably higher than the observations: we find here a factor ×8 (95%-CI: 5-12) which leads to an IFR in France of 0.5% (95%-CI: 0.3-0.8) based on hospital death counting data. Adjusting for the number of deaths in nursing homes, we obtain an IFR of 0.8% (95%-CI: 0.45-1.25). This IFR is consistent with previous findings in China (0.66%) and in the UK (0.9%) and lower than the value previously computed on the Diamond Princess cruse ship data (1.3%).

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“…Para identificar diferencias en la letalidad se ha desarrollado un índice de letalidad relativa, utilizando la tasa de letalidad del brote de COVID-19 en el crucero Princess Diamond como referencia 10 . Este índice es la letalidad de cada país en relación con la letalidad que hubo en el crucero.…”

Section: Métodounclassified

“…Además, la mayoría de los casos se detectaron en pacientes nacidos en países de la OCDE 10 , similares a los incluidos en este estudio. Hubo siete muertes, todas en pacientes mayores de 70 años, resultando una tasa de letalidad del 1,01% 10 .…”

Section: Métodounclassified