Wild plants and their associated pathogens are involved in ongoing interactions over millennia that have been modified by coevolutionary processes to limit the spatial extent and temporal duration of disease epidemics. These interactions are disrupted by modern agricultural practices and social activities, such as intensified monoculture using superior varieties and international trading of agricultural commodities. These activities, when supplemented with high resource inputs and the broad application of agrochemicals, create conditions uniquely conducive to widespread plant disease epidemics and rapid pathogen evolution. To be effective and durable, sustainable disease management requires a significant shift in emphasis to overtly include ecoevolutionary principles in the design of adaptive management programs aimed at minimizing the evolutionary potential of plant pathogens by reducing their genetic variation, stabilizing their evolutionary dynamics, and preventing dissemination of pathogen variants carrying new infectivity or resistance to agrochemicals.

Genetically-controlled plant resistance can reduce the damage caused by pathogens. However, pathogens have the ability to evolve and overcome such resistance. This often occurs quickly after resistance is deployed, resulting in significant crop losses and a continuing need to develop new resistant cultivars. To tackle this issue, several strategies have been proposed to constrain the evolution of pathogen populations and thus increase genetic resistance durability. These strategies mainly rely on varying different combinations of resistance sources across time (crop rotations) and space. The spatial scale of deployment can vary from multiple resistance sources occurring in a single cultivar (pyramiding), in different cultivars within the same field (cultivar mixtures) or in different fields (mosaics). However, experimental comparison of the efficiency (i.e. ability to reduce disease impact) and durability (i.e. ability to limit pathogen evolution and delay resistance breakdown) of landscape-scale deployment strategies presents major logistical challenges. Therefore, we developed a spatially explicit stochastic model able to assess the epidemiological and evolutionary outcomes of the four major deployment options described above, including both qualitative resistance (i.e. major genes) and quantitative resistance traits against several components of pathogen aggressiveness: infection rate, latent period duration, propagule production rate, and infectious period duration. This model, implemented in the R package landsepi, provides a new and useful tool to assess the performance of a wide range of deployment options, and helps investigate the effect of landscape, epidemiological and evolutionary parameters. This article describes the model and its parameterisation for rust diseases of cereal crops, caused by fungi of the genus Puccinia. To illustrate the model, we use it to assess the epidemiological and evolutionary potential of the combination of a major gene and different traits of quantitative resistance. The comparison of the four major deployment strategies described above will be the objective of future studies.

Background. The number of screening tests carried out in France and the methodology used to target the patients tested do not allow for a direct computation of the actual number of cases and the infection fatality ratio (IFR). The main objective of this work is to estimate the actual number of people infected with COVID-19 and to deduce the IFR during the observation window in France.Methods. We develop a 'mechanistic-statistical' approach coupling a SIR epidemiological model describing the unobserved epidemiological dynamics, a probabilistic model describing the data acquisition process and a statistical inference method.Results. The actual number of infected cases in France is probably higher than the observations: we find here a factor ×8 (95%-CI: 5-12) which leads to an IFR in France of 0.5% (95%-CI: 0.3−0.8) based on hospital death counting data. Adjusting for the number of deaths in nursing homes, we obtain an IFR of 0.8% (95%-CI: 0.45 − 1.25).Conclusions. This IFR is consistent with previous findings in China (0.66%) and in the UK (0.9%) and lower than the value previously computed on the Diamond Princess cruse ship data (1.3%).

A multitude of resistance deployment strategies have been proposed to tackle the evolutionary potential of pathogens to overcome plant resistance. In particular, many landscape-based strategies rely on the deployment of resistant and susceptible cultivars in an agricultural landscape as a mosaic. However, the design of such strategies is not easy as strategies targeting epidemiological or evolutionary outcomes may not be the same. Using a stochastic spatially explicit model, we studied the impact of landscape organization (as defined by the proportion of fields cultivated with a resistant cultivar and their spatial aggregation) and key pathogen life-history traits on three measures of disease control. Our results show that short-term epidemiological dynamics are optimized when landscapes are planted with a high proportion of the resistant cultivar in low aggregation. Importantly, the exact opposite situation is optimal for resistance durability. Finally, well-mixed landscapes (balanced proportions with low aggregation) are optimal for long-term evolutionary equilibrium (defined here as the level of long-term pathogen adaptation). This work offers a perspective on the potential for contrasting effects of landscape organization on different goals of disease management and highlights the role of pathogen life history. K E Y W O R D Scropping ratio, durability, epidemiological control, landscape, resistance deployment strategy, spatial aggregation, spatially explicit model, susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed

Once deployed uniformly in the field, genetically controlled plant resistance is often quickly overcome by pathogens, resulting in dramatic losses. Several strategies have been proposed to constrain the evolutionary potential of pathogens and thus increase resistance durability. These strategies can be classified into four categories, depending on whether resistance sources are varied across time (rotations) or combined in space in the same cultivar (pyramiding), in different cultivars within a field (cultivar mixtures) or among fields (mosaics). Despite their potential to differentially affect both pathogen epidemiology and evolution, to date the four categories of deployment strategies have never been directly compared together within a single theoretical or experimental framework, with regard to efficiency (ability to reduce disease impact) and durability (ability to limit pathogen evolution and delay resistance breakdown). Here, we used a spatially explicit stochastic demogenetic model, implemented in the R package landsepi, to assess the epidemiological and evolutionary outcomes of these deployment strategies when two major resistance genes are present. We varied parameters related to pathogen evolutionary potential (mutation probability and associated fitness costs) and landscape organization (mostly the relative proportion of each cultivar in the landscape and levels of spatial or temporal aggregation). Our results, broadly focused on qualitative resistance to rust fungi of cereal crops, show that evolutionary and epidemiological control are not necessarily correlated and that no deployment strategy is universally optimal. Pyramiding two major genes offered the highest durability, but at high mutation probabilities, mosaics, mixtures and rotations can perform better in delaying the establishment of a universally infective superpathogen. All strategies offered the same short‐term epidemiological control, whereas rotations provided the best long‐term option, after all sources of resistance had broken down. This study also highlights the significant impact of landscape organization and pathogen evolutionary ability in considering the optimal design of a deployment strategy.

The COVID-19 epidemic was reported in the Hubei province in China in December 2019 and then spread around the world reaching the pandemic stage at the beginning of March 2020. Since then, several countries went into lockdown. Using a mechanistic-statistical formalism, we estimate the effect of the lockdown in France on the contact rate and the effective reproduction number R e of the COVID-19. We obtain a reduction by a factor 7 (R e = 0.47, 95%-CI: 0.45-0.50), compared to the estimates carried out in France at the early stage of the epidemic. We also estimate the fraction of the population that would be infected by the beginning of May, at the official date at which the lockdown should be relaxed. We find a fraction of 3.7% (95%-CI: 3.0-4.8%) of the total French population, without taking into account the number of recovered individuals before April 1st, which is not known. This proportion is seemingly too low to reach herd immunity. Thus, even if the lockdown strongly mitigated the first epidemic wave, keeping a low value of R e is crucial to avoid an uncontrolled second wave (initiated with much more infectious cases than the first wave) and to hence avoid the saturation of hospital facilities.

The number of screening tests carried out in France and the methodology used to target the patients tested do not allow for a direct computation of the actual number of cases and the infection fatality ratio (IFR). The main objective of this work is to estimate the actual number of people infected with COVID-19 and to deduce the IFR during the observation window in France. We develop a 'mechanistic-statistical' approach coupling a SIR epidemiological model describing the unobserved epidemiological dynamics, a probabilistic model describing the data acquisition process and a statistical inference method. The actual number of infected cases in France is probably higher than the observations: we find here a factor ×8 (95%-CI: 5-12) which leads to an IFR in France of 0.5% (95%-CI: 0.3-0.8) based on hospital death counting data. Adjusting for the number of deaths in nursing homes, we obtain an IFR of 0.8% (95%-CI: 0.45-1.25). This IFR is consistent with previous findings in China (0.66%) and in the UK (0.9%) and lower than the value previously computed on the Diamond Princess cruse ship data (1.3%).

Owing to their evolutionary potential, plant pathogens are able to rapidly adapt to genetically controlled plant resistance, often resulting in resistance breakdown and major epidemics in agricultural crops. Various deployment strategies have been proposed to improve resistance management. Globally, these rely on careful selection of resistance sources and their combination at various spatiotemporal scales (e.g., via gene pyramiding, crop rotations and mixtures, landscape mosaics). However, testing and optimizing these strategies using controlled experiments at large spatiotemporal scales are logistically challenging. Mathematical models provide an alternative investigative tool, and many have been developed to explore resistance deployment strategies under various contexts. This review analyzes 69 modeling studies in light of specific model structures (e.g., demographic or demogenetic, spatial or not), underlying assumptions (e.g., whether preadapted pathogens are present before resistance deployment), and evaluation criteria (e.g., resistance durability, disease control, cost-effectiveness). It highlights major research findings and discusses challenges for future modeling efforts. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Phytopathology, Volume 59 is August 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.