Estimating the Economic Consequences of Terrorist Disruptions in the National Capital Region: An Application of Input-Output Analysis

Economic effects of terrorism: Local and city considerations, priorities for research and policy

“…Also, the empirical study of the economic effects of terrorism could be advanced in particular by two methodological approaches. These can complement research, largely at the intersection of hazard management and regional economics, which uses input-output models to simulate the impact of a terrorist attack (Cheng, Stough, & Kocornik-Mina, 2006). While GIS mapping and analysis is not new, it has been increasingly used to study terrorism, focused on questions like the risks and dynamics of terrorism (see Bahgat & Medina, 2012;Beck, 2003;Medina, Siebeneck, & Hepner, 2011;Van Horn & Mosurinjohn, 2010), but there is still significant unexplored application in the impact (economic or otherwise) of terrorism.…”

Economics definitions, methods, models, and analysis procedures for Homeland Security applications.

“…He also discusses the previous over-simplification of types of commodity flows that is often required for standard regionalization using the regional purchase coefficients. Chang, et al (2006) 35 presents an IO model that they use to estimate the economic impacts of terrorist events. They use a hypothetical event in which terrorists cause the outage of a major electric power plant serving the Washington, DC region.…”

The economic consequences of water utility disruptions

“…The first method involves estimating lost working days (Gordon et al, 1998;Cheng et al, 2006) or job losses (Lee et al, 2008) which are transformed into output losses using the employment/output ratio.…”

“…Inclusion of restoration activities is accomplished through the use of repair progress functions (Chang et al, 2002;Chang, 2003;Chang & Seligson, 2003), restoration curves (HAZUS-MH models and Jones et al, 2008;Porter et al, 2011) or by expert judgment (Cheng et al, 2006). Restoration costs are either estimated from surveys (Livernois, 2001) or from simulation models (URAMP by Seligson et al, 2003; WHEAT by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2010b).…”

“…Space is another relevant dimension especially because of the likelihood that neighboring areas will be affected by the changing demands of the local businesses (and the utility water company) (Lee et al, 2008). The spatial dimension involves the location and network characteristics of infrastructure damages (Chang et al, 2002;Chang, 2003;Cheng et al, 2006), neighborhood effects (Lee et al, 2008), interregional economic flows and relationships , spatial distribution of direct, indirect and induced effects (Gordon et al, 1998;Cho et al, 2000;Gordon et al, 2004), and effects on transportation related costs such as increased commuting, travel and freight costs (Cho et al, 2000;Gordon et al, 2004).…”