Economics definitions, methods, models, and analysis procedures for Homeland Security applications.

Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Loose, Verne W.; Vargas, Vanessa N; Smith, Braeton J.; Warren, Drake E.; Downes, Paula Sue; Eidson, Eric D.; Mackey, Greg Edward

doi:10.2172/1097196

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 14 publications

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“…19 The United States Department of Homeland Security National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) developed the NISAC Agent-Based Laboratory for Economics (N-ABLE) to conduct economic analysis of "homeland security-related disruptive events." 20 Ehlen et al used the N-ABLE framework with a chemical data model to simulate thousands of chemical plants and related firms in the United States. N-ABLE has been used to simulate the impact of disruptive events (both natural and man-made disasters) on the chemical industry.…”

Section: Agent-based Modeling and Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Opportunities for Chemical Manufacturing Using Natural Gas Feedstocks in the San Juan Basin

DeRosa

Downes

Lentz

et al. 2016

Ind. Eng. Chem. Res.

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The San Juan Basin, located in northwestern New Mexico and southwestern Colorado, produces natural gas from oil, gas, and coalseam wells. Because of abundant natural gas supply and price discounts relative to other natural gas trading hubs, the San Juan Basin is an attractive location to establish greenfield manufacturing of value-added chemicals from locally produced natural gas. To assess the viability of manufacturing different types of chemicals, agent-based models of three chemical markets were created to simulate historical market operation in the United States. Using the agent-based models, potential market share of a greenfield plant in the San Juan Basin is estimated. The historical market models show that world-scale production of urea or polypropylene could be achieved by a manufacturing plant in the San Juan Basin. Production of propylene in the region likely could not sustain world-scale production, even with improvements in local transportation infrastructure connections.

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Section: Agent-based Modeling and Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Opportunities for Chemical Manufacturing Using Natural Gas Feedstocks in the San Juan Basin

DeRosa

Downes

Lentz

et al. 2016

Ind. Eng. Chem. Res.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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Decision framework for evaluating the macroeconomic risks and policy impacts of cyber attacks

Kelic¹,

Collier²,

Brown³

et al. 2013

Environ Syst Decis

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Network Modeling of the U.S. Petrochemical Industry under Raw Material and Hurricane Harvey Disruptions

DeRosa

Kimura

Stadtherr

et al. 2019

Ind. Eng. Chem. Res.

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A geographically resolved network model of the U.S. chemical industry in 2017 is constructed, and optimal chemical flows between units are calculated using linear programming. A baseline solution and three disruption scenarios (primary raw material disruptions, reported Hurricane Harvey ethylene cracker disruptions, and assumed capacity disruptions based on the Hurricane Harvey geographic storm track) are studied to determine how the structure of the industry is modified to adapt to widespread and geographically specific disruptions. The calculated impacts of the assumed Hurricane Harvey disruption include 170 chemical units in 26 states that change production level as a result of supply chain disruptions during the storm. The systemic impact for the assumed Hurricane Harvey disruption is 19.3 million tonnes of gross chemical production. The day with the largest impact on gross chemical production shows a reduction from baseline operations of 1.3 million tonnes (42% of baseline). This model can be used for analysis of future disruption scenarios and to test resilience strategies, including impacts of new manufacturing configurations or technologies.

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Economics definitions, methods, models, and analysis procedures for Homeland Security applications.

Abstract: This report gives an overview of the types of economic methodologies and

Cited by 3 publications

References 14 publications

Opportunities for Chemical Manufacturing Using Natural Gas Feedstocks in the San Juan Basin

Opportunities for Chemical Manufacturing Using Natural Gas Feedstocks in the San Juan Basin

Decision framework for evaluating the macroeconomic risks and policy impacts of cyber attacks

Network Modeling of the U.S. Petrochemical Industry under Raw Material and Hurricane Harvey Disruptions

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