Estimating subnational preferences across the European Union

Lipps, Jana; Schraff, Dominik

doi:10.1017/psrm.2019.38

Cited by 9 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…Our four-wave sample has a median number of 511 observations per NUTS2 region. This allows us to avoid many of the issues regarding representativeness and precision on the regional level that usually plague European comparative surveys (Lipps & Schraff 2019). The four-wave design makes our analysis a longitudinal study that can investigate change on the regional and national level.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional inequality and institutional trust in Europe

Lipps¹,

Schraff²

2020

European J Political Res

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Inequality is a central explanation of political distrust in democracies, but has so far rarely been considered a cause of (dis-)trust towards supranational governance. Moreover, while political scientists have extensively engaged with income inequality, other salient forms of inequality, such as the regional wealth distribution, have been sidelined. These issues point to a more general shortcoming in the literature. Determinants of trust in national and European institutions are often theorized independently, even though empirical studies have demonstrated large interdependence in citizens' evaluations of national and supranational governance levels. In this paper, we argue that inequality has two salient dimensions: (1) income inequality and (2) regional inequality. Both dimensions are important antecedent causes of European Union (EU) trust, the effects of which are mediated by evaluations of national institutions. On the micro-level, we suggest that inequality decreases a person's trust in national institutions and thereby diminishes the positive effect of national trust on EU trust. On the macro-level, inequality decreases country averages of trust in national institutions. This, however, informs an individual's trust in the EU positively, compensating for the seemingly untrustworthiness of national institutions. Finally, we propose that residing in an economically declining region can depress institutional trust. We find empirical support for our arguments by analysing regional temporal change over four waves of the European Social Survey 2010-2016 with a sample of 209 regions nested in 24 EU member states. We show that changes in a member state's regional inequality have similarly strong effects on trust as changes in the Gini coefficient of income inequality. Applying causal mediation techniques, we can show that the effects of inequality on EU trust are largely mediated through citizens' evaluations of national institutions. In contrast, residing in an economically declining region directly depresses EU trust, with economically lagging areas turning their back on European governance and resorting to the national level instead. Our findings highlight the relevance of regional inequality for refining our understanding of citizens' support for Europe's multi-level governance system and the advantages of causal modelling for the analysis of political preferences in a multi-level governance system.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional inequality and institutional trust in Europe

Lipps¹,

Schraff²

2020

European J Political Res

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“…We improve the generalizability of the survey responses using MRP to reweight the responses so that they better represent the full population of previously successful noncompleters in our partner colleges. While MRP has been used extensively in political science to measure public opinion in the United States (Gao et al, 2019;Gelman et al, 2010;Gelman & Little, 1997;Howe et al, 2015;Kastellec et al, 2019;Lax & Phillips, 2009;Lei et al, 2017;Lipps & Schraff, 2019;Little, 1993;Pacheco, 2011;Park et al, 2004;Wang et al, 2015;Warshaw & Rodden, 2012), and is increasingly used by political scientists outside of the United States (Lipps & Schraff, 2019;Toshkov, 2015), sociologists (Fairbrother & Martin, 2013), and epidemiologists (Downes et al, 2018;Eke et al, 2016;Zhang et al, 2014) to generate representative estimates from nonrepresentative data, it has been seldom used in surveybased educational research. 3 Following our general description above, MRP is implemented using this two-step process:…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating Why Academically Successful Community College Students Leave College Without a Degree

2021

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Even though a postsecondary degree can offer economic, social, and civic benefits, many community college students leave without earning a degree—including some who have performed well academically and made substantial progress toward graduation. To better understand the factors contributing to early exit, we surveyed a number of former students in a large community college system. We improve the generalizability of the survey responses through multilevel regression with poststratification, which we use to reweight the responses to better represent the population in our original survey frame. We find that tuition and fees, living expenses, and no longer being eligible for financial aid are the factors contributing to early exit for the largest share of students. We also find variation in both financial and nonfinancial factors across subgroups, suggesting that targeted supports may be useful in helping students persist or return to college and complete their degree.

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“…We estimated additional models to determine how, if at all, our main results are sensitive to alternative specifications. Our first robustness check addresses possible concerns about the number and representativity of respondents surveyed at the subnational level (Lipps & Schraff, 2021a). The average number of individual respondents per region-year in our sample is 484 (and the median is 343).…”

Section: Robustness Testsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…On the other hand, as the powers of the EU have grown, scholars have shown how economic conditions shape attitudes toward the EU (Gomez, 2015) and Eurosceptic voting behaviour (Hobolt & de Vries, 2016). To date, however, few cross‐national studies have examined the impact of subnational economic conditions on Euroscepticism (Chalmers & Dellmuth, 2015; Colantone & Stanig, 2018b; Lechler, 2019; Lipps & Schraff, 2021a; Lubbers & Scheepers, 2007; Mahler et al., 2000). Moreover, among those that do, none has directly modelled how, if at all, the relationship between EU support and subnational economic conditions has changed over the long term.…”

Section: Support For European Integrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Subnational economic conditions and the changing geography of mass Euroscepticism: A longitudinal analysis

Mayne

Κατσανίδου

2022

European J Political Res

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Existing research mainly analyzes mass attitudes towards the European Union (EU) from the national and individual‐level perspective. This paper adds to this literature by focusing on the relationship between EU support and subnational economic conditions, using harmonized survey data covering 40 years and 1.1 million respondents in 197 European regions. We first describe Europe's changing subnational conditions in terms of catch‐up, wealthy, declining and glass‐ceiling regions. The paper then develops and tests a set of hypotheses regarding the temporally dynamic relationship between EU attitudes and regions’ long‐ and short‐term economic conditions. Our analyses reveal important longitudinal variations in this relationship with low levels of geographic differentiation in public opinion giving way to clear spatial differences in recent years. Our findings are consistent with the idea that the Great Recession and Brexit have generated a new geography of both Euroscepticism in Europe's declining regions and EU support in its wealthy and catch‐up regions.

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Estimating subnational preferences across the European Union

Cited by 9 publications

References 20 publications

Regional inequality and institutional trust in Europe

Regional inequality and institutional trust in Europe

Investigating Why Academically Successful Community College Students Leave College Without a Degree

Subnational economic conditions and the changing geography of mass Euroscepticism: A longitudinal analysis

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