Estimating Population Size for Capture-Recapture Data When Capture Probabilities Vary by Time and Individual Animal

Chao, Anne; Lee, SM; Jeng, S-L

doi:10.2307/2532750

Cited by 273 publications

(213 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…The precision of C-RC estimates depends on the extent to which certain conditions are met (Buster, 2001;Chao, Lee, & Jeng, 1992;IWGDMF, 1995). We enumerate these assumptions, as well as our measures to comply with them or to minimize their violation.…”

Section: Methods and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating the Prevalence of Crack Dependence Using Capture-Recapture With Institutional and Field Data: A Three-City Study in the Netherlands

Pérez

Cruyff

Benschop

et al. 2013

Substance Use & Misuse

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The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence of crack dependence in the three largest Dutch cities (Amsterdam, Rotterdam, The Hague), stratified by gender and age. Three-sample capture-recapture, using data (collected between 2009 and 2011) from low threshold substitution treatment (n = 1,764), user rooms (n = 546), and a respondent-driven sample (n = 549), and applying log-linear modeling (covariates: gender, age, and city), provided a prevalence rate of 0.51% (95% CI: 0.46%-0.60%) for the population aged 15-64 years, with similar estimates for the three cities. Females (23.0% of total estimate) and younger crack users (12.8% aged <35 years) might be underrepresented in drug user treatment services.Keywords capture-recapture, crack dependence, prevalence, gender, respondent-driven sampling, mark-recapture, problem drug usersThe authors thank Petra Houwing for her indispensable assistance in the fieldwork; Wim Van de Brink (AMC), Vincent Hendriks, and Peter Blanken (Parnassia) for their valuable contributions to the project design; Filip Smit (Amsterdam Free University), Marcel Buster (Municipal Health Department, Amsterdam), and Peter Van der Heijden (Utrecht University) for their advice on statistical analysis; and all social and healthcare agencies that have collaborated with this study. 1 Treatment can be briefly and usefully defined as a unique, planned, goal directed, temporally structured, multi-dimensional change process, of necessary quality, appropriateness, and conditions (endogenous and exogenous), which is bounded (culture, place, time, etc.) and can be categorized into professional-based, tradition-based, mutual-help based (AA, NA, etc.), and self-help ("natural recovery") models. There are no unique models or techniques used with substance users -of whatever types and heterogeneities -that aren't also used with non-substance users. Whether or not a treatment technique is indicated or contra-indicated -and its selection underpinnings are theory-based, empirically based, tradition-based, based on "principles of faith," etc. -continues to be a generic and key treatment issue. In the West, with the relatively new ideology of "harm reduction" and the even newer quality of life (QOL) and wellbeing treatment-driven models, there are now a new set of goals in addition to those derived from/associated with the older tradition of abstinence-driven models. Conflict-resolution models may stimulate an additional option for intervention. Each ideological model has its own criteria for success as well as failure. Treatment is implemented in a range of environments, ambulatory as well as within institutions, which can include controlled environments. Treatment includes a spectrum of clinician-caregiver-patient relationships representing various forms of decision-making traditions/models: (1) the hierarchical model, in which the clinician-treatment agent makes the decision(s) and the recipient is compliant and relatively passive; (2) shared decision-making, which facilitates the collaboration between clini...

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Section: Methods and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating the Prevalence of Crack Dependence Using Capture-Recapture With Institutional and Field Data: A Three-City Study in the Netherlands

Pérez

Cruyff

Benschop

et al. 2013

Substance Use & Misuse

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“…bilities that vary with time (Chao 1989), individual Mark-recapture-closed population models. Abun-(heterogeneity; Chao 1989), and time in combination dance estimates were generated from several markwith individual (Chao et al 1992). The 4 latter models recapture models that assume a closed population, were estimated using the program CAPTURE (Otis et with each year's data representing a single sample, al.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Chao (1989) also reported that her M, estimator, which assumes equal capture probabilities among individuals, underestimates N in the presence of heterogeneity, as expected (Hammond 1986(Hammond , 1990. Conversely, if there is no heterogeneity, models Mh and M,, will overestimate N (Chao 1989, Chao et al 1992. The magnitude of effect in either case depends upon the degree of heterogeneity, i.e.…”

Section: Closed Population Modelsmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…The closed capture models used in this study were designed to allow for variation in capture probability with individual and/or sampling occasion (Otis et al 1978, Chao 1989, Chao et al 1992). However, difficulties arise when individual capture probabilities vary among sampling occasions in a manner that is nonrandom and inconsistent among individuals.…”

Section: Variation In Probability Of Capture Due To Non-random Movementmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Estimates of humpback whale abundance off Kauai, 1989 to 1993:evaluating biases associated with sampling the Hawaiian Islands breeding assemblage

Cerchio¹

1998

Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser.

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Identification photographs of humpback whales Megaptera novaeangljae, collected off Kauai during the years 1989 to 1993, were used to estimate population abundance off the Hawaiian Islands, USA A total of 790 different individuals (988 different observations) were identified during the study. Several mark-recapture procedures were applied to the data using closed population models (Chapman's modified Petersen, weighted mean of the Petersen. Darroch's maximum likelihood estimator [MLE], and Chao's M,, M,, and M,,, estimators) and an open population model (Fisher-Ford estimator). The majority of population estimates were between 2000 and SO00 animals, with broad and overlapping 95% confidence intervals. Inconsistencies in pair-wise Petersen estimates and poor fit to the Fisher-Ford model indicated that the populat~on of ind~v~duals was not identical for each sampling occasion. As a pnmary example of this, it is suggested that individuals captured in 1992 had a lower probability of capture in other years examined. Possibly the greatest problems In estimating abundance of this population dealt with temporary emigration and non-random mixing of the population between sampling occasions. After considering the range of estimates, and potential biases in the data set. I suggest that the abundance of humpback whales off the Hawaiian Islands is likely close to 4000 individuals, and most probably between 3000 and 5000. These estimates are considerably greater than those generated in the late 1970s and early 1980s and, if accurate, would indicate growth of the population over the past decade; however, it is strongly recommended that more representative and precise estimates be obtained for management purposes.

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“…The time-variant models assume that for t capture occasions there are t possible capture probabilities. The estimators used for the different models included Darroch's maximum likelihood for time-variant capture probabilities (Darroch 1958, Otis et al 1978), Chao's time-variant capture probability (Chao 1989), individual heterogeneity (Chao 1989) and a time-and individual-variant capture probability model (Chao et al 1992). The Chao estimator is particularly useful when the probability of capture is small (as in this study).…”

Section: Photographs and Measurementsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Population size and structure of whale sharks Rhincodon typus at Ningaloo Reef, Western Australia

Meekan¹,

Bradshaw²,

Press³

et al. 2006

Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser.

164

222

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We used photo-identification to produce estimates of population size and structure of whale sharks Rhincodon typus at Ningaloo Reef, Western Australia. We analysed photographs of whale sharks taken from 1992 to 2004. A combination of spot and stripe patterns behind the last gill slit and forward of the dorsal fin (lateral view), and distinctive scars and marks on the body and fins were useful for identifying individual sharks. These patterns appeared to be unique to individuals and distinctive markings could be recognized on some sharks for more than a decade. From 581 photographs, 159 individuals were identified. Of these, 74% were male, 16% were female and 10% were of indeterminate gender. Photographed sharks ranged in estimated size from 3 to 10 m total length (TL). The size distribution of sharks was bimodal with a large peak at 8 m and a smaller peak at 6 m TL. Sixty individuals were resighted during the study. Of these, 46 were resighted at different times during the same year (sometimes on multiple occasions) up to 4 mo after they were initially photographed, and 33 were resighted (4 on > 2 occasions) in different years. The interval between inter-annual resightings was typically 1 to 3 yr; however, 2 sharks were resighted after a period of 12 yr. We estimated the super population of whale sharks that visit Ningaloo Reef to consist of approximately 300 to 500 individuals (95% confidence interval) based on closed population models, or 320 to 440 based on Jolly-Seber open-population models. Our study shows that photo-identification offers a practical, non-invasive and non-destructive means to obtain data on the population size and demography of whale sharks.

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Estimating Population Size for Capture-Recapture Data When Capture Probabilities Vary by Time and Individual Animal

Cited by 273 publications

References 16 publications

Estimating the Prevalence of Crack Dependence Using Capture-Recapture With Institutional and Field Data: A Three-City Study in the Netherlands

Estimating the Prevalence of Crack Dependence Using Capture-Recapture With Institutional and Field Data: A Three-City Study in the Netherlands

Estimates of humpback whale abundance off Kauai, 1989 to 1993:evaluating biases associated with sampling the Hawaiian Islands breeding assemblage

Population size and structure of whale sharks Rhincodon typus at Ningaloo Reef, Western Australia

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