Estimating plant–insect interactions under climate change with limited data

Abstract

Climate change may disrupt species–species interactions via phenological changes in one or both species. To predict and evaluate the influence of climate change on these interactions, long-term monitoring and sampling over large spatial areas are required; however, funding and labor constraints limit data collection. In this study, we predict and evaluate the plant–insect interactions with limited data sets. We examined plant–insect interaction using observational data for development of the crop plant rice (Oryza sativa) and an effective accumulated temperature (EAT) model of two mirid bugs (Stenotus rubrovittatus and Trigonotylus caelestialium). We combined 11 years of records monitoring rice phenology and the predicted phenology of mirid bugs using spatially–explicit EAT models based on both spatially and temporally high resolutions temperature data sets, then evaluated their accuracy using actual pest damage records. Our results showed that the predicted interactions between rice and mirid bugs explained rice damage to some degree. Our approach may apply predicting changes to plant–insect interactions under climate change. As such, combining plant monitoring records and theoretical predictions of insect phenology may be effective for predicting species–species interactions when available data are limited.

Assessing the Global Pest Risk of Aeolesthes sarta with Regards to the Host Specie Populus alba under Climate Change Scenarios

“…Regional changes in climate, most notably those associated with increases in temperature, impact several ecological systems [25]. Despite morphological and physiological alterations in one or both species, climate change may sabotage relationships between species [26]. Climate patterns, notably temperature, directly and significantly impact the phenology of poikilotherms, primarily invertebrates like insects [27].…”

Genome editing for healthy crops: traits, tools and impacts

“…‘Healthy plants’ are vital to sustainable and profitable crop production and to the quality and cost of the nation’s supply of food, fuel, and fiber. However, maintaining “healthy plants” is a challenge due to climate and other environmental changes that can disrupt the interactions between species ( Tamura et al., 2022 ) in a range of environments ( Karavolias et al., 2021 ). Currently, climate change is favoring enlargement of the geographical distribution of some already existing and newly emerging pests and invasive plants ( Jones and Barbetti, 2012 ; King et al., 2018 ).…”