Aeolesthes sarta (Solsky 1871) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) is a polyphagous longhorned beetle species that primarily damages broadleaved tree species. This pest is distributed in the western and northern regions of Pakistan, where it caused serious damage to Populus spp. plantations. However, the growth and dispersal patterns of insects and pests are changing due to climate change. Modeling the range expansion or contraction of A. sarta development regions in Pakistan was the goal of the current study, assuming climate change might influence the geographical distribution of A. sarta in Pakistan. Under historical and future climatic conditions, A. sarta distribution areas were estimated using the CLIMEX model. Three time periods, 2030 (early century), 2070 (late century), and 2100 (end century), were forecasted for habitat suitability using the two climate change scenarios (CCSs) A1B and A2. Under the historic climatic condition (HCC), A. sarta was distributed in most areas of Pakistan, and its optimum habitat accounted for 71.67% of its total potential distribution. In the early-century period, optimum habitat dropped to 50.60% and 52.22% under A1B and A2 scenarios in the suitable condition. In the late-century period, optimum habitat further reduced to 31.76% and 30.60% under A1B and A2 scenarios. Moreover, at the end-century period, severe range shrinkage was predicted in the optimum habitat (19.99% under both CSSs). The model predicted a shift in the suitable habitat areas for A. sarta to the west and north. Furthermore, most climatically suitable areas under historic conditions became unsuitable during the end-century period. These projected results will assist in identifying the impacts of global warming on the possible distribution of A. sarta, thereby offering vital information for developing early forecasting and pest-prevention techniques to prevent further loss of forest and woodland trees.

The city longhorn beetle (Aeolesthes sarta) (CLB) (Coleoptera – Cerambycidae) is a polyphagous invasive pest of both healthy and suppressed broadleaved trees in central Asia. CLB causes a great degree of damage in the countries of its origin. To understand this pest in a better way, a detailed review study has been conducted to gather all the valuable information related to the CLB. This review study covers the main aspects of the CLB, its morphology, ecology, distribution, damage, and control measures. The life span of the CLB is two years. It is mainly distributed in the central Asian countries and preferably damages broadleaved tree species, especially Juglans regia, Populus alba, P. euphratica, Acer spp, Salix alba, S. babylonica, Malus pumila, M. sylvestris, Platanus orientalis and Ulmus spp. Effective control and management practices include cutting, removing + burning of infested trees, cultivating high resilient tree species, use of biocontrol agents (i.e. fungus), and use of aluminium phosphide as a pesticide to significantly help control the CLB population. A CLB invasion in a new favourable habitat could impose a serious threat to broadleaf forests and plantations. Therefore, the keen monitoring and surveying of woodland management techniques are recommended. The strict monitoring and inspection of traded wood material at airports and seaports are highly recommended. There is a need to conduct multiple research studies to profoundly understand the CLB phenology, ecology, transportation mode, and damage severity to bridge the gap.

Agrotis ipsilon (Hufnagel) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) is a polyphagous moth species that mainly damages various crops and ornamental plants. This widely distributed pest is particularly a nuisance in Pakistan where it damages many crops, e.g., wheat and vegetables. To assess the risk of damage by this moth, we used the CLIMEX model to predict the distribution of A. ipsilon under current and future climatic conditions. Using the literature data, we collected information on the biology and ecology of A. ipsilon relevant for modelling the distribution of this species in Pakistan and worldwide under current and future climatic conditions. Our results revealed that under future climatic scenarios, the highly favourable habitat area of A. ipsilon (ecoclimatic index EI > 30) would decrease globally from 19% at present to 14% in the future, and the moderately favourable habitat area (0 < EI ≤ 15) would increase from 21 to 29%. We found that the northern areas of Pakistan will become highly suitable for the establishment of A. ipsilon. Under the current climatic conditions, the optimal habitats of A. ipsilon (EI > 30) comprised 10% and moderately favourable habitats (EI < 17) accounted for 25% of the total land area in Pakistan. Under future climatic scenarios, the optimal habitat area of the moth in Pakistan could decrease to 5% and the moderately favourable habitat area could cover 63% of the entire land area. The results can be applied in the protection of various crops and ornamental plants against A. ipsilon in Pakistan as well as worldwide.

The spongy moth (formerly known as a gypsy moth), Lymantria dispar L. (Lepidoptera: Erebidae), is a polyphagous pest that defoliates various species of trees in the genera Populus, Salix, Quercus, Acer and Pinus. Egg masses of Asian spongy moths (Lymantria dispar asiatica) were obtained from five geographically distinct locations in China (Chengdu, Xifeng, Heilongjiang, Kuduer and Longhua regions) and were carried to the lab for incubation and rearing larvae up to adult emergence. The aim was to see how locality, age and mating status influenced the flying activity of female Asian spongy moths. The findings demonstrate that age significantly affects L. dispar asiatica flying activity, with flight period and distance decreasing dramatically as age increases. Locality also significantly impacts flight ability, and mating status does not affect the L. dispar asiatica female flight ability (p > 0.05). The maximum speed was observed for females from Xifeng (7.19 ± 0.34 km/h). The females from Heilongjiang were recorded as having the maximum average speed (2.35 ± 0.08 km/h). Females from Xifeng exhibited the maximum flight duration and distance (0.94 ± 0.04 h and 1.87 ± 0.18 km). Morphological features, i.e., thorax width (cm) and wing loading, significantly influenced the L. dispar asiatica flight ability (R2 = 0.93 and R2 = −0.98). The overall pattern observed for female L. dispar asiatica flight duration was Xifeng > Kuder > Chengdu > Heilongjiang > Longhua, and for flight distance, it was Xifeng > Longhua > Heilongjiang > Kuder > Chengdu. This research offers detailed information on the dispersion rate of Spongy moths in a known or newly introduced habitat, which can help us limit the spread of this polyphagous pest.

Aeolesthes sarta or Trirachys sarta is a polyphagous long-horned beetle that has caused severe damage to the Populus alba forests/plantations in its regions of origin. Climate change could accelerate the introduction and spread of invasive pest species, potentially causing ecological damage and economic losses. Furthermore, globalization and increased trade can inadvertently transport pests across borders into regions where they do not already occur. Hence, it is crucial to identify areas where the climate is most suitable for the establishment of A. sarta’s and which areas of the world are suitable for the growth of P. alba under climate change scenarios. This study employed the CLIMEX model to estimate the potential global distribution of A. sarta and its correlation with its dominant host, P. alba, under current climatic conditions and potential future scenarios, namely the A1B and A2 climate change scenarios (CCSs). Under current climatic conditions, the model indicates that the establishment of a climatically suitable habitat for A. sarta extends beyond its current known range. The model estimated that, under the world’s current climatic conditions, 41.06% of the world can provide suitable areas (EI > 0) for the survival of A. sarta. For P. alba, under the current climatic conditions, suitable regions for the growth of P. alba are present in all continents (excluding Antarctica); under the world’s current climatic conditions, 53.52% of the world can provide suitable areas for the growth of P. alba (EI > 0). Climate change will significantly alter the number of suitable habitats for A. sarta development and P. alba growth globally. In future climatic conditions, the number areas capable of supplying suitable habitats (EI > 0) for A. sarta will slightly decrease to 40.14% (under A1B and A2 CCSs), while, for P. alba, the number areas capable of supplying suitable habitats will also marginally decrease to 50.39% (under A1B scenario), and this figure is estimated to drop to 48.41% (under A2 scenario) by the end century (2100). Asia, Europe, North America, South America, and Oceania have a high percentage of highly suitable areas for A. sarta development and P. alba growth under current climatic conditions; however, according to estimates of future climatic conditions, by the end century, only Asia, Europe, North America, and Oceania will have a high percentage of highly suitable areas for A. sarta development and P. alba growth. The range of highly suitable habitats is likely to increase in the northern hemisphere; however, this range is expected to shrink with regards to the southern hemisphere. The range contraction was higher under the A2 climate change scenario due to a higher warming trend than in the A1B scenario. Due to climate change, the range of A. sarta development shifted, as did the P. alba growth range, which, thanks to the suitable environmental conditions for the growth of P. alba, makes all those regions vulnerable to the introduction and development of A. sarta. Strict monitoring, prevention, and control measures at borders, airports, and seaports before the trade of P. alba and other suitable host species wood (logs/billets) are highly recommended to prevent the spread of A. sarta and ensure biodiversity security. It is expected that the A. sarta and P. alba climate models presented here will be useful for management purposes since both can be adapted to guide decisions about imparting resources to regions where the threat of pest invasion remains and away from regions where climate suitability is predicted to decrease in the future.

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