Estimating Participation and Party Voting in Poland: the 1991 Parliamentary Elections

Wade, Larry L.; Groth, Alexander J.; Lavelle, Peter

doi:10.1177/0888325494008001004

Cited by 16 publications

(9 citation statements)

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“…In transitional countries undergoing structural reforms, electorates are found to be very sensitive to economic recession, but pretty unresponsive when the economy is doing well (Pacek 1994; Pacek & Radcliff 1995). The empirical evidence for the Polish 1991 elections is mixed: while unemployment emerges as a strong predictor of declining turnout, higher personal income is actually found to have a negative effect on voters’ decision to go to the polls (Wade et al 1994).…”

Section: Turnout In Democracies In Transitionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Voter turnout dynamics in post‐Communist Europe

Kostadinova

2003

European J Political Res

169

109

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Declining levels of turnout recently observed in some East European elections have generated concerns about the performance of the newly emerging democracies. Theories developed to explain turnout in industrialized democracies emphasize the importance of two major groups of factors: institutional and socioeconomic. This article argues that a comprehensive model of voter participation in post-Communist settings should also include a dynamic component to account for temporal changes generated by the transitional process. I test a model of voter turnout that incorporates explanations of temporal (sequence of elections) and spatial differences (electoral system type, party system characteristics and economic development). Multivariate regression is used to estimate the model, with data from fifteen East European countries over four consecutive elections. Turnout in democracies in transitionVoter participation in the East European transitional elections of the 1990s has been remarkably different from the high levels of turnout reported by Communist authorities prior to 1989. Post-Communist turnout rates vary. While over 90 per cent of registered voters participated in the first multiparty elections in Czechoslovakia, only about 66 per cent of Hungarian voters in 1990 and less than 50 per cent of Polish voters in 1991 went to the polls. Moreover, observers have expressed concerns about a decline in turnout in some of the countries in the region. These varying levels of engagement in electoral participation across space and over time are indicative of changing patterns of behaviour among East European voters.Voter turnout in new emerging democracies has its unique important dimensions. The process of political liberalization and democratization makes it possible for people to face unlimited but, very often, unknown and uncertain choices. Exposed to serious hardships, voters are challenged by many competing alternatives, and they have to decide whether and how to respond to the changing transitional environment. Since 'unequal participation spells unequal influence' (Lijphart 1997), changes in voting behaviour could have a disturbing impact on the fair representation of societal interests. Therefore, the problem of voter participation in times of fundamental political and economic transformation requires special attention.

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Section: Turnout In Democracies In Transitionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Voter turnout dynamics in post‐Communist Europe

Kostadinova

2003

European J Political Res

169

109

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“…First, we emphasize that an inverse relationship between socioeconomic status and voting is not rare. Scholars studying voting in India, Egypt, Poland, and sub‐Saharan Africa have noted the inverse relationship between socioeconomic status and turnout, but these cases have been treated as anomalous (Blaydes ; Kuenzi and Lambright ; Kumar ; Wade, Groth, and Lavelle ). Second, we offer an explanation of turnout inequality that encompasses both cases in which the rich turn out at higher rates and cases in which the poor do so.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

When Do the Rich Vote Less Than the Poor and Why? Explaining Turnout Inequality across the World

Kasara

Suryanarayan

2014

American J Political Sci

129

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The conventional wisdom that the poor are less likely to vote than the rich is based upon research on voting behavior in advanced industrialized countries. However, in some places, the relationship between turnout and socioeconomic status is reversed. We argue that the potential tax exposure of the rich explains the positive relationship between income and voting in some places and not others. Where the rich anticipate taxation, they have a greater incentive to participate in politics, and politicians are more likely to use fiscal policy to gain support. We explore two factors affecting the tax exposure of the rich-the political salience of redistribution in party politics and the state's extractive capacity. Using survey data from developed and developing countries, we demonstrate that the rich turn out to vote at higher rates when the political preferences of the rich and poor diverge and where bureaucratic capacity is high.

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“…8. Among others: Kitschelt, Dimitrov, and Kanev (1995) on the 1991 Bulgarian National Assembly Election; Wade, Groth, and Lavelle (1994) on the 1991 Polish Sejm election; Wade, Lavelle, and Groth (1995) on the 1993 Polish Sejm election. 9.…”

Section: Endnotesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The goal of the present analysis is to empirically verify whether the punishing of the pro-reform incumbents based on negative economic evaluations was a primary cause for the return to power of ex-communist parties. Derived from theories of economic voting and findings indicating that district unemployment rates have influenced post-communist elections (Pacek 1994;Wade, Groth, and Lavelle 1994), the following core hypotheses will be tested for the three elections in this study: …”

Section: Economic Votingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Examining Polish voting patterns in the 1991 Sejm election, Wade, Groth, and Lavelle (1994) revealed that district-level unemployment and the varied presence of the Catholic Church by district were the most important influences on party vote shares, with higher district unemployment rates tending to increase left-party vote shares. Yet, in a follow-up study analyzing the 1993 Polish election (through which the ex-communist SLD was returned to parliamentary power), the same authors find that district unemployment is no longer a statistically significant predictor of party vote shares.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Economic Voting in Postcommunist Eastern Europe

Harper

2000

Comparative Political Studies

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This study tests the hypothesis that the replacement of incumbent promarket, prodemocracy governments with ex-communist parties in postcommunist East European elections was a function of the economic calculus of frustrated citizens at the ballot box. Using data from the Central and Eastern Euro-Barometer studies, this investigation adopts an individual-level approach to examine the degree to which economic assessments and unemployment influenced both proreform incumbent and ex-communist party voting intentions in Lithuania (1992), Hungary (1994), and Bulgaria (1994). The dominant impression that emerges from the logistic regression estimations predicting voting intentions is that despite strong expectations to the contrary, economic factors had at best a modest effect on party choice in these nations. These findings corroborate country-specific studies of electoral behavior in Eastern Europe that observe that the return to parliamentary power of ex-communist parties in these societies was not simply a function of economic voting.

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Estimating Participation and Party Voting in Poland: the 1991 Parliamentary Elections

Cited by 16 publications

References 0 publications

Voter turnout dynamics in post‐Communist Europe

Voter turnout dynamics in post‐Communist Europe

When Do the Rich Vote Less Than the Poor and Why? Explaining Turnout Inequality across the World

Economic Voting in Postcommunist Eastern Europe

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