Abstract:Design hydrographs are widely used in practical hydrologic engineering problems. Typical applications adopt event-based (EBM) methods, using rainfall-runoff models to convert design hyetographs into design hydrographs. Uncertainties include the definition of antecedent conditions and the assumption of equivalence between hyetograph and hydrograph return periods. An alternative is to use continuous simulation (CSM) methods, by forcing a rainfall-runoff model with long precipitation series, and directly analyzin… Show more
“…The MGB hydrological model was chosen for this study because it presents good results in the representation of hydrological processes on a large scale (Paz et al, 2013;Lopes et al, 2018;Siqueira et al, 2018;Fleischmann et al, 2019) and has been applied to assess the impacts of climate change on water resources in several studies in large river basins in Brazil (Queiroz et al, 2016;Schuster et al, 2020) and South America (Brêda et al2020).…”
This study verified the impacts of climate change on river flow in the Doce River basin, using the MGB and RCM Eta projections. Despite the differences between the trends, the basin will certainly be affected by the reduction of precipitation and the increase in temperature between 2025 and 2099. Results show considerable reductions in the trends of the average flow of the basin. In 2025 - 2049, these reduction trends are greater than 64% in 50% of river reaches, according to Eta-HadGEM2-ES RCP 8.5. In 2050 - 2074, the flows simulated with Eta-CanESM2 and Eta-HadGEM2-ES RCP 8.5 achieve reductions greater than 84% and 77%, respectively, in 50% of the simulated reaches. In 2075 - 2099 the reduction trends of Eta-CanESM2 and Eta-HadGEM2-ES RCP 8.5 are greater than 91% and 79%, respectively, in 50% of the drainage reaches.
“…The MGB hydrological model was chosen for this study because it presents good results in the representation of hydrological processes on a large scale (Paz et al, 2013;Lopes et al, 2018;Siqueira et al, 2018;Fleischmann et al, 2019) and has been applied to assess the impacts of climate change on water resources in several studies in large river basins in Brazil (Queiroz et al, 2016;Schuster et al, 2020) and South America (Brêda et al2020).…”
This study verified the impacts of climate change on river flow in the Doce River basin, using the MGB and RCM Eta projections. Despite the differences between the trends, the basin will certainly be affected by the reduction of precipitation and the increase in temperature between 2025 and 2099. Results show considerable reductions in the trends of the average flow of the basin. In 2025 - 2049, these reduction trends are greater than 64% in 50% of river reaches, according to Eta-HadGEM2-ES RCP 8.5. In 2050 - 2074, the flows simulated with Eta-CanESM2 and Eta-HadGEM2-ES RCP 8.5 achieve reductions greater than 84% and 77%, respectively, in 50% of the simulated reaches. In 2075 - 2099 the reduction trends of Eta-CanESM2 and Eta-HadGEM2-ES RCP 8.5 are greater than 91% and 79%, respectively, in 50% of the drainage reaches.
“…The water levels of the CSG were provided by the Port of Pelotas, which has a ruler installed next to the pier. It was first used in large basins in South America, for example, to assess climate change impacts in the Amazon (Sorribas et al 2016), in hydrological and hydrodynamic modeling of rivers and lakes (Lopes et al 2018;Munar et al 2018;Fleischmann et al 2019aFleischmann et al , 2019b, in water management scenarios in transboundary river basins (Gorgoglione et al 2019), and in continental hydrological modeling for South America .…”
The Mirim and Patos Lagoons form the largest lagoon complex in South America. Wind is one of the dominant climatic elements of circulation and water levels in the basin. Therefore, we aimed to better understand the effects of wind on the Mirim–São Gonçalo watershed by applying the MGB hydrological model and to assess whether it would produce satisfactory results for modeling. Various tests were performed to determine the best representation of the processes involved and the observed levels. The best results were obtained with the inclusion of sub-daily wind data in the simulation and also the downstream boundary condition by using the observed water level data at the sluice dam of the São Gonçalo channel. The results showed that the model could successfully simulate the levels and demonstrated the importance of including the wind when modeling the hydrodynamic processes of large lake environments.
“…Finally, MGB-IPH for the case presented here was used based on an hourly discretization, similar to that observed in (Fleischmann et al, 2019a), which allows greater representativeness regarding the propagation of the estimated rupture hydrograph.…”
In this research study, the MGB-IPH (acronym for Large Scale Model in Portuguese - Modelo de Grandes Bacias) was used to simulate the propagation of a dam breach hydrograph estimated from predictor equations for the Três Marias Hydropower Dam, considered one of the largest in South America. The results of the peak flow, peak time and flood spot were compared with results of the Hec-Ras 5.06 model, typically used for local-scale dam break studies. As for the extent of the flood, a hit rate of 84% and a median error of 2.1 meters deep, along 4,055 km2 of the flooded area downstream was obtained. Maximum errors of 13% were observed in the prediction of the peak flow and of 20% for the peak time in distant locations up to 526 km downstream from the dam, thus establishing itself within the limits of the typical uncertainties associated with dam break studies. Thus, the potential of using this type of approach in previous studies of large dam failures is explored, configuring this method as an alternative to the use of robust or simplified models for determining downstream areas potentially affected by these disasters.
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