Estimating causal effects of BRI infrastructure projects based on the synthetic control method

Abstract

This paper studies the regional treatment effects of infrastructure projects on employment and transport volumes by combining the quantitative econometric method with qualitative case studies. The quantitative method that we use is synthetic control, which allows us to analyze the causal effects on particular treatment groups. The regions of interest in our study are Duisburg and Piraeus. Both the quantitative and the qualitative evidence reveal that the impact on maritime transportation in Piraeus is very significant. Although the quantitative evidence shows a rather modest effect on employment before 2016, the qualitative evidence suggests a more significant effect in recent years. We interpret this as the postponed effects from infrastructure provision on various outcome variables. Moreover, we find that rail transport does not crowd out local road transport.

Belt and road initiative as a gender equalizer: Decomposing the impact of belt and road initiative trade on gender wages gap in participating countries

“…The Belt and Road Initiative has the potential to affect the gender wage gap in cooperating countries in a variety of ways. On the one hand, rising investment and trade can contribute to economic expansion and create new jobs, which might help women through improved employment opportunities and wages (Sayavong, 202;Li et al 2021; Zhu, M., & Hu 2023). Furthermore, infrastructure development, especially networks for communication and transportation, could mitigate gender inequalities by enhancing women's ability to obtain education, healthcare, and other services (Lall, & Lebrand 2020;Liao et al 2021).…”