Erratum to ‘A multidisciplinary effort to assign realistic source parameters to models of volcanic ash-cloud transport and dispersion during eruptions’ by Mastin et al. [J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 188(2009)1–21]

Mastin, Larry G.; Guffanti, Marianne; Servranckx, R.; Webley, P. W.; Barsotti, Sara; Dean, Kenneth; Durant, Adam J.; Ewert, John W.; Neri, Augusto; Rose, W. I.; Schneider, D.; Siebert, Lee; Stunder, Barbara J. B.; Swanson, Grace; Tupper, Andrew; Volentik, A. C.; Waythomas, Christopher F.

doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2009.10.013

Cited by 9 publications

(19 citation statements)

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“…Volcanoes exhibit a broad range of eruptive styles and variability (Woods, 1995), thus making theoretical attempts at predicting source parameters challenging. To date, only indirect methods are available to estimate ash emission rates (Mastin et al, 2009). For example, if eruption column heights are known, e.g., from weather radar measurements (Lacasse et al, 2004), empirical relationships may be used to estimate the mass flux of tephra (Sparks et al, 1997;Mastin et al, 2009).…”

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confidence: 99%

“…To date, only indirect methods are available to estimate ash emission rates (Mastin et al, 2009). For example, if eruption column heights are known, e.g., from weather radar measurements (Lacasse et al, 2004), empirical relationships may be used to estimate the mass flux of tephra (Sparks et al, 1997;Mastin et al, 2009). However, these relationships are loose , the vertical profile of ash emissions remains poorly quantified, and only a small but highly variable fraction of the tephra is fine grained enough (<30 µm) for long-range atmospheric transport.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Determination of time- and height-resolved volcanic ash emissions and their use for quantitative ash dispersion modeling: the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption

et al. 2011

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Abstract. The April-May, 2010 volcanic eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland caused significant economic and social disruption in Europe whilst state of the art measurements and ash dispersion forecasts were heavily criticized by the aviation industry. Here we demonstrate for the first time that large improvements can be made in quantitative predictions of the fate of volcanic ash emissions, by using an inversion scheme that couples a priori source information and the output of a Lagrangian dispersion model with satellite data to estimate the volcanic ash source strength as a function of altitude and time. From the inversion, we obtain a total fine ash emission of the eruption of 8.3±4.2 Tg for particles in the size range of 2.8-28 µm diameter. We evaluate the results of our model results with a posteriori ash emissions using independent ground-based, airborne and space-borne measurements both in case studies and statistically. Subsequently, we estimate the area over Europe affected by volcanic ash above certain concentration thresholds relevant for the aviation industry. We find that during three episodes in April and May, volcanic ash concentrations at some altitude in the atmosphere exceeded the limits for the "Normal" flying zone in up to 14 % (6-16 %), 2 % (1-3 %) and 7 % (4-11 %), respecCorrespondence to: A. Stohl (ast@nilu.no) tively, of the European area. For a limit of 2 mg m −3 only two episodes with fractions of 1.5 % (0.2-2.8 %) and 0.9 % (0.1-1.6 %) occurred, while the current "No-Fly" zone criterion of 4 mg m −3 was rarely exceeded. Our results have important ramifications for determining air space closures and for real-time quantitative estimations of ash concentrations. Furthermore, the general nature of our method yields better constraints on the distribution and fate of volcanic ash in the Earth system.

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Determination of time- and height-resolved volcanic ash emissions and their use for quantitative ash dispersion modeling: the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption

et al. 2011

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“…For the source strength, we made the assumption of a constant emission rate for the number density on all vertical model levels. The value of the strength was scaled according to the parameterization given by Mastin et al (2009).…”

Section: Emission Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the following we will evaluate the model results for which we applied the Mastin et al (2009) emission parameterization plus the calibration described in Sect. 4 (Fig.…”

Section: Uncertainties and Conditional Probabilities Of The Simulatedmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This ensemble is named reference ensemble. Moreover, we produced two additional time lagged ensembles varying the top of the plume height at the volcano by ± 1000 m. This in addition varies the total emissions of volcanic ash according to the Mastin et al (2009) parameterization. Figure 1 shows the source strengths that correspond to the modifications of the top height of the plume at the volcano.…”

Section: Uncertainties and Conditional Probabilities Of The Simulatedmentioning

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Time-lagged ensemble simulations of the dispersion of the Eyjafjallajökull plume over Europe with COSMO-ART

et al. 2014

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Abstract. An extended version of the German operational weather forecast model was used to simulate the ash dispersion during the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull. As an operational forecast was launched every 6 hours, a time-lagged ensemble was obtained. Sensitivity runs show the ability of the model to simulate thin ash layers when an increased vertical resolution is used. Calibration of the model results with measured data allows for a quantitative forecast of the ash concentration. After this calibration an independent comparison of the simulated number concentration of 3 µm particles and observations at Hohenpeißenberg gives a correlation coefficient of 0.79. However, this agreement could only be reached after additional modifications of the emissions. Based on the time lagged ensemble the conditional probability of violation of a certain threshold is calculated. Improving the ensemble technique used in our study such probabilities could become valuable information for the forecasters advising the organizations responsible for the closing of the airspace.

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The eruption run-up at Mt. Etna volcano: Constraining magma decompression rates and their relationships with the final eruptive energy

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Schiavi

Viccaro

2022

Earth and Planetary Science Letters

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Erratum to ‘A multidisciplinary effort to assign realistic source parameters to models of volcanic ash-cloud transport and dispersion during eruptions’ by Mastin et al. [J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 188(2009)1–21]

Cited by 9 publications

References 0 publications

Determination of time- and height-resolved volcanic ash emissions and their use for quantitative ash dispersion modeling: the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption

Determination of time- and height-resolved volcanic ash emissions and their use for quantitative ash dispersion modeling: the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption

Time-lagged ensemble simulations of the dispersion of the Eyjafjallajökull plume over Europe with COSMO-ART

The eruption run-up at Mt. Etna volcano: Constraining magma decompression rates and their relationships with the final eruptive energy

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