Epidemiological comparison of the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria, February 2020–April 2021

Akande, Oluwatosin Wuraola; Elimian, Kelly Osezele; Igumbor, Ehimario; Dunkwu, Lauryn; Kaduru, Chijioke; Olopha, O; Ohanu, Dabri Olohije; Nwozor, Lilian; Agogo, Emmanuel; Aruna, Olusola; Balogun, Muhammad Shakir; Aderinola, Olaolu; Ahumibe, Anthony; Arinze, Chinedu; Badaru, Sikiru; Nwachukwu, William; Dada, Augustine Olajide; Erameh, Cyril; Hamza, Khadeejah Liman; Mohammed, Tarik Benjamin; Ndodo, Nnaemeka; Obiekea, Celestina; Ofoegbunam, Chinenye; Ogunbode, Oladipo; Ohonsi, Cornelius; Tobin, Ekaete Alice; Yashe, Rimamdeyati; Adekaiyaoja, Afolabi; Asuzu, Michael C.; Audu, Rosemary; Bello, Muhammad Bashir; Bello, Shaibu Oricha; Deeni, Yusuf Y.; Disu, Yahya; Joseph, Gbenga; Ezeokafor, Chidiebere; Habib, Zaiyad Garba; Ibeh, Christian C.; Ike, Ifeanyi; Iwara, Emem; Luka-Lawal, Rejoice; Namara, Geoffrey; Okwor, Tochi; Olajide, Lois; Ilesanmi, Oluwafunke Olufemi; Omonigho, Solomon Esharegoma; Oyiri, Ferdinand; Takpa, Koubagnine; Ugbogulu, Nkem; Ibekwe, Priscilla; Ilori, Elsie; Ochu, Chinwe Lucia; Ihekweazu, Chikwe

doi:10.1136/bmjgh-2021-007076

Cited by 20 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…The proportion of infected frontline workers significantly decreased from the first to the fourth wave. Increased availability of personal protective equipment in health facilities across the nation, increased awareness of the fatality of the disease, COVID-19 vaccination, and increasing levels of natural immunity following infection are possible reasons for this observation [ 15 ]. This pattern of reduction in TPR was statistically significant in the second wave (25.0%), in contrast to that of the third (15.3%) and 4th (13.2%) waves.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Currently, there are several official epidemiological definitions of the COVID-19 waves. One of the main characteristics of a wave is an increasing number of registered cases, followed by a clear and identifiable peak and a subsequent decline [15][16][17][18]. However, more precise definitions are needed, as epidemiological and policy actions differ according to the state of the pandemic.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Epidemiological Comparison of Four COVID-19 Waves in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, March 2020–January 2022

Otshudiema¹,

Folefack²,

Nsio

et al. 2022

J Epidemiol Glob Health

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Purpose Nationwide analyses are required to optimise and tailor activities to control future COVID-19 waves of resurgence continent-wide. We compared epidemiological and clinical outcomes of the four COVID-19 waves in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Methods This retrospective descriptive epidemiological analysis included data from the national line list of confirmed COVID-19 cases in all provinces for all waves between 9 March 2020 and 2 January 2022. Descriptive statistical measures (frequencies, percentages, case fatality rates [CFR], test positivity rates [TPR], and characteristics) were compared using chi-squared or the Fisher–Irwin test. Results During the study period, 72,108/445,084 (16.2%) tests were positive, with 9,641/56,637 (17.0%), 16,643/66,560 (25.0%), 24,172/157,945 (15.3%), and 21,652/163,942 (13.2%) cases during the first, second, third, and fourth waves, respectively. TPR significantly decreased from 17.0% in the first wave to 13.2% in the fourth wave as did infection of frontline health workers (5.2% vs. 0.9%). CFR decreased from 5.1 to 0.9% from the first to fourth wave. No sex- or age-related differences in distributions across different waves were observed. The majority of cases were asymptomatic in the first (73.1%) and second (86.6%) waves, in contrast to that in the third (11.1%) and fourth (31.3%) waves. Conclusion Despite fewer reported cases, the primary waves (first and second) of the COVID-19 pandemic in the DRC were more severe than the third and fourth waves, with each wave being associated with a new SARS-CoV-2 variant. Tailored public health and social measures, and resurgence monitoring are needed to control future waves of COVID-19.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemiological Comparison of Four COVID-19 Waves in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, March 2020–January 2022

Otshudiema¹,

Folefack²,

Nsio

et al. 2022

J Epidemiol Glob Health

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“…Similarly, results from a previous report showed that there were relatively lower incidence rates across three countries in Africa (Sierra Leone, Guinea, and Liberia) compared to many parts of the globe ( 17 ). In Nigeria, there were 802,143 tests conducted from February 2020 to April 2021, with a resulting positivity rate of 3.2%, and 66,121 and 91,644 people tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection during two waves ( 18 ). As of December 31, 2020, southern regions in Africa began reporting more cases (43%) than its eastern and northern regions; in contrast, fewer cases were being reported in western African (9%) ( 19 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemiological Trends of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Sierra Leone From March 2020 to October 2021

Liu

Gao²,

Xue³

et al. 2022

Front. Public Health

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Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a serious public health challenge the world over, has led to significant health concerns in Sierra Leone. In the present study, epidemic indices, such as the number of cases, positivity rate, reproduction rate (R0), case fatality rate (CFR), age, and sex, were used to characterize the epidemiological trends of COVID-19. As of October 31, 2021, a total of 6,398 cases and 121 related deaths had been confirmed. The total number of COVID-19 reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests conducted to October 31, 2021, was 249,534, and the average positivity rate was 2.56%. Three waves of COVID-19 were recorded, occurring during weeks 15–46 in 2020 (2,369 cases), week 47 in 2020 to week 16 in 2021 (1,665 cases), and weeks 17–43 in 2021 (2,364 cases), respectively. Remarkably, there was no increase in the numbers of confirmed COVID-19 cases despite rising test numbers throughout the three waves. Moreover, three high R0 values were observed before each wave. The number of positive cases significantly correlated with positive numbers of international arrivals (P < 0.01), deaths (P < 0.01), and the positivity rate of tested samples (P < 0.01). Moreover, all of the deaths occurred during the peak of the three waves. Our results indicate that there was a low level of COVID-19 epidemic in Sierra Leone and that COVID-19's introduction led to local transmission. It is vital to fight against the spread of SARS-CoV-2 from the source of origin by strengthening testing and management of people entering the country. Our findings will provide important clues for expanding sample screening and will contribute to the reasonable allocation of medical resources.

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“…If during the first wave, the incidence level barely exceeded 5000 cases a day, during the second wave (October 2020 – Mar 2021) [ 38 ], the incidence peaked at over 30.000 a day in December [ 39 ], while we were still conducting interviews and FGDs. Nigeria also went through two epidemic waves (February – October 2020; November 2020 – February 2021) [ 40 ]. Nevertheless, there were significantly less reported cases (barely reaching 600 cases a day during the first wave), with a very low case fatality rate [ 41 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A comparative analysis of experienced uncertainties in relation to risk communication during COVID19: a four-country study

et al. 2022

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Background During outbreaks, uncertainties experienced by affected communities can influence their compliance to government guidance on public health. Communicators and authorities are, hence, encouraged to acknowledge and address such uncertainties. However, in the midst of public health crises, it can become difficult to define and identify uncertainties that are most relevant to address. We analyzed data on COVID-19-related uncertainties from four socio-economic contexts to explore how uncertainties can influence people’s perception of, and response to Risk Communication and Community Engagement (RCCE) strategies. Results This qualitative study, which adopts an interpretative approach, is based on data from a documentary review, key informant interviews (KII), and focus group discussions (FGD) with members of the general public and people with barriers to information from Germany, Guinea, Nigeria, and Singapore. Transcripts from the KII and FGD were coded and analyzed thematically. We interviewed a total of 155 KIs and conducted 73 FGD. Our analysis uncovered a divergence between uncertainties deemed relevant by stakeholders involved in policy making and uncertainties that people reportedly had to navigate in their everyday lives and which they considered relevant during the pandemic. We identified four types of uncertainties that seemed to have influenced people’s assessment of the disease risk and their trust in the pandemic control strategies including RCCE efforts: epidemiological uncertainties (related to the nature and severity of the virus), information uncertainties (related to access to reliable information), social uncertainties (related to social behavior in times of heightened risk), and economic uncertainties (related to financial insecurities). Conclusion We suggest that in future outbreaks, communicators and policy makers could improve the way in which affected communities assess their risk, and increase the trust of these communities in response efforts by addressing non-epidemiological uncertainties in RCCE strategies.

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Epidemiological comparison of the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria, February 2020–April 2021

Cited by 20 publications

References 25 publications

Epidemiological Comparison of Four COVID-19 Waves in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, March 2020–January 2022

Epidemiological Comparison of Four COVID-19 Waves in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, March 2020–January 2022

Epidemiological Trends of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Sierra Leone From March 2020 to October 2021

A comparative analysis of experienced uncertainties in relation to risk communication during COVID19: a four-country study

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