Epidemics, Inequality, and Poverty in Preindustrial and Early Industrial Times

Abstract

Recent research has explored the distributive consequences of major historical epidemics, and the current crisis triggered by COVID-19 prompts us to look at the past for insights about how pandemics can affect inequalities in income, wealth, and health. The fourteenth-century Black Death, which is usually believed to have led to a significant reduction in economic inequality, has attracted the greatest attention. However, the picture becomes much more complex if other epidemics are considered. This article covers the worst epidemics of preindustrial times, from the Plague of Justinian of 540–41 to the last great European plagues of the seventeenth century, as well as the cholera waves of the nineteenth. It shows how the distributive outcomes of lethal epidemics do not only depend upon mortality rates, but are mediated by a range of factors, chief among them the institutional framework in place at the onset of each crisis. It then explores how past epidemics affected poverty, arguing that highly lethal epidemics could reduce its prevalence through two deeply different mechanisms: redistribution toward the poor or extermination of the poor. It concludes by recalling the historical connection between the progressive weakening and spacing in time of lethal epidemics and improvements in life expectancy, and by discussing how epidemics affected inequality in health and living standards. (JEL D31, I12, I14, I30, N30, J11, J31)

The evolution of economic and political inequality: minding the gap

“…He finds that inequality peaked in this era around 150 CE, then declined sharply through 300 CE and more gradually to 700 CE. These changes in inequality reflect in part the decentralization of political power as the Roman Empire declined, as central elites lost some of their (often physically dispersed) assets and local authorities gained greater resources [39, pp. 6–8].…”

“…This process lowered land prices and enabled more people to enter into land ownership, the primary form of wealth holding. There is also evidence of reduced income inequality specifically, based on rising wages for unskilled workers in urban areas, reflecting labour shortages due to high morbidity and mortality [39, p. 12]. After the mid-1400s, the re-consolidation of state power led to a return of rising inequality.…”

“…After the mid-1400s, the re-consolidation of state power led to a return of rising inequality. The particular form of state activity in the era—taxation, often regressive, to support military expenditures that flowed to elites—reinforced the tendency to rising inequality [39, pp. 26–27].…”

“…By the time of the cholera outbreaks of the 1600s, Europe had gained extensive experience with such crises, and institutions were altered to limit the resulting impacts on wealth and income distribution. For instance, in Italy, new institutional arrangements prevented the fragmentation of inheritance [39, pp. 19–20].…”

“…19–20]. The pandemics in Central and South America following the arrival of Europeans did not have such levelling effects owing of course to slavery and other institutions of forced labour [39, p. 15].…”