Environmental Impact of Subsidy Concepts for Stimulating Car Sales in Germany

Abstract

In 2020, vehicle sales decreased dramatically due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, several voices have demanded a vehicle subsidy similar to the “environmental subsidy” in Germany in 2009. The ecological efficiency of vehicle subsidies is controversially discussed. This paper establishes a prognosis of the long-term environmental impacts of various car subsidy concepts. The CO2 emissions of the German car fleet impacted by the purchase subsidies are determined. A balance model of the CO2 emissions of the whole car life cycle is developed. The implementation of different subsidy scenarios directly affects the forecasted composition of the vehicle population and, therefore, the resulting life-cycle assessment. All scenarios compensate the additional emissions required by the production pull-in within the considered period and, hence, reduce the accumulated CO2 emissions until 2030. In the time period 2019–2030 and for a total number of 0.72 million subsidized vehicles—compensating the decrease due to the COVID-19 pandemic—savings of between 1.31 and 7.56 million t CO2 eq. are generated compared to the scenario without a subsidy. The exclusive funding of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) is most effective, with an ecological break-even in 2025.

A Review on Environmental Efficiency Evaluation of New Energy Vehicles Using Life Cycle Analysis

“…Environmental uncertainty makes the emission change of NEVs more drastic, including technological change [129], policy change [68] and emergencies [130]. Internet plus can realize the interaction between electric vehicles and the power grid, with the help of smart grid technology and internet intelligent control devices, so that this uncertainty is gradually controllable [129].…”

“…Internet plus can realize the interaction between electric vehicles and the power grid, with the help of smart grid technology and internet intelligent control devices, so that this uncertainty is gradually controllable [129]. When the current subsidy policy has little effect due to emergency situations such as the COVID-19 pandemic, technology-centered incentive and subsidy policies can achieve environmental and income balance at the fastest speed [130]. However, technological innovation that improves efficiency often fails to give full play to its potential when considering the environmental rebound effect [131].…”

“…The Nissan Leaf is the most representative compact electric car in the study. This is because the production data of the Nissan Leaf on Ecoinvent are relatively comprehensive [33,99,130].…”

Impact of coronavirus pandemic on sharing mode of manufacturer

“…Currently, despite the rapid development of car-sharing, it also faces many problems and challenges, especially in the case of coronavirus pandemic. Due to strict lockdown, the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the global car-sharing industry has soared ( Ivanov, 2020 , Scharf et al, 2020 ), in order to reduce the risk of infection, many people shift away from car-sharing 2 , according to sources from Fortune, the global pandemic has pummeled Uber’s passenger-trip volumes by 80% 3 . However, under the expectation of long-term economic downturn, many consumers are also worried about their own financial situation, some potential buyers embrace car-sharing to reduce the expenditure on car purchase.…”

Integrated Approach for the Assessment of Strategies for the Decarbonization of Urban Traffic

“…The trend towards heavier passenger cars (especially due to the increase in the share of sport utility vehicles) is also not considered in this paper. We addressed this issue in a study on the environmental impact of different subsidy programs for passenger vehicles in [123]. Here, in contrast, we analyse a direct transition of the current fleet to new drive technologies.…”