Environmental Change and Antarctic Seabird Populations

Croxall, John P.; Trathan, Philip N.; Murphy, Eugene J.

doi:10.1126/science.1071987

Cited by 376 publications

(341 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…5b) may have contributed to this stabilization of juvenile survival. Complex environmental effects on Adélie penguin survival Large-scale atmospheric indices and associated regional changes in marine conditions have been implicated in trends in numerous seabird populations around the world (Veit et al 1996;Croxall et al 2002;Sandvik et al 2005;Devney et al 2009). In Antarctica, the responses of penguin populations to environmental variability have included changes in abundance (e.g., Trathan et al 1996;Wilson et al 2001), but also included shifts in range (Emslie et al 1998), changes in breeding phenology Hinke et al 2012), and changes in foraging behavior (Fraser and Hofmann 2003).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Many seabirds display such life history traits, but observed variation and directional change in environmental conditions have caused changes in phenology, breeding and foraging ranges, and population trends of numerous seabirds (Veit et al 1996;Sandvik et al 2005;Barbraud and Weimerskirch 2006;Devney et al 2009). In particular, long-term data on Antarctic seabirds dependent on sea ice habitats, including emperor (Aptenodytes forsteri) and Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae), and snow petrels (Pagodroma nivea) suggest that variation in the seasonal duration and spatial extent of winter sea ice can be important drivers of population change (Croxall et al 2002;Jenouvrier et al 2005;Emmerson and Southwell 2011). Demographic models that link vital rates to environmental drivers (e.g., Jenouvrier et al 2009) and habitatassociation models (e.g., Ainley et al 2010) suggest that continued warming and loss of sea ice in Antarctica may hasten declines in the abundance of ice-obligate species.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) survival rates and their relationship to environmental indices in the South Shetland Islands, Antarctica

Hinke

Trivelpiece

2014

Polar Biol

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Seabird life history is typified by low fecundity, high adult survival rates, and relatively long lives. Such traits act as buffers, enabling persistence of populations under variable environmental conditions. Numerous studies, however, have suggested strong sensitivity of seabirds to environmental variability. In the Antarctic Peninsula region, for example, Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) populations have declined during the last three decades, attributed largely to rapid changes in environmental conditions and food availability. We use 30 years of markrecapture data from known-age individuals in the South Shetland Islands and capture-mark-recapture models to estimate survival rates with respect to such environmental variation. We investigated specifically whether negative trends in survival rates were evident and whether indices of global, regional, and local environmental conditions considered important for Adélie penguin survival explained the variability in survival rates. Overall, negative trends in juvenile survival were evident, but adult survival rates exhibited high interannual variability. Indices of sea ice extent had the strongest correlations with survival rates, particularly Weddell Sea ice extent during spring among adults (r = 0.62) and during winter for juveniles (r = 0.46). An analysis of deviance, however, suggested that single environmental covariates explained \30 % of the observed variation in the full mark-recapture models. Despite positive effects of sea ice extent on survival rates of Adélie penguins, limited explanatory power of several environmental conditions previously identified as important for Adélie penguin survival underscores the difficulty of predicting future population responses in this region of rapid environmental change.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) survival rates and their relationship to environmental indices in the South Shetland Islands, Antarctica

Hinke

Trivelpiece

2014

Polar Biol

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“…Emerging evidence suggests that warming has decreased the number of cold years with heavy winter sea ice and that as a consequence penguin populations are showing substantial concurrent population responses (Fraser et al, 1992;Fraser & Trivelpiece, 1996;Croxall et al, 2002;Smith et al, 2003). Current hypotheses suggest that in general, in locations where species' breeding ranges overlap, sea ice reduction has produced habitat conditions more suitable for ice-intolerant species, which have increased in numbers, whereas ice-dependent species have declined.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Contrasting population changes in sympatric penguin species in association with climate warming

Forcada

Trathan

Reid

et al. 2006

Global Change Biology

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202

230

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Climate warming and associated sea ice reductions in Antarctica have modified habitat conditions for some species. These include the congeneric Adélie, chinstrap and gentoo penguins, which now demonstrate remarkable population responses to regional warming. However, inconsistencies in the direction of population changes between species at different study sites complicate the understanding of causal processes. Here, we show that at the South Orkney Islands where the three species breed sympatrically, the less iceadapted gentoo penguins increased significantly in numbers over the last 26 years, whereas chinstrap and Adélie penguins both declined. These trends occurred in parallel with regional long-term warming and significant reduction in sea ice extent. Periodical warm events, with teleconnections to the tropical Pacific, caused cycles in sea ice leading to reduced prey biomass, and simultaneous interannual population decreases in the three penguin species. With the loss of sea ice, Adélie penguins were less buffered against the environment, their numbers fluctuated greatly and their population response was strong and linear. Chinstrap penguins, considered to be better adapted to ice-free conditions, were affected by discrete events of locally increased ice cover, but showed less variable, nonlinear responses to sea ice loss. Gentoo penguins were temporarily affected by negative anomalies in regional sea ice, but persistent sea ice reductions were likely to increase their available niche, which is likely to be substantially segregated from that of their more abundant congeners. Thus, the regional consequences of global climate perturbations on the sea ice phenology affect the marine ecosystem, with repercussions for penguin food supply and competition for resources. Ultimately, variability in penguin populations with warming reflects the local balance between penguin adaptation to ice conditions and trophic-mediated changes cascading from global climate forcing.

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“…In the Arctic, only a few species of seabirds are dependent on sea ice as a platform on which to forage or rest (e.g., Divoky et al, 2015); in contrast, in the Antarctic many species of seabirds use sea ice during their life cycles. However, the response of ice-associated seabirds is likely to differ regionally based on projected increases or decreases in sea-ice cover (Croxall et al, 2002;D.G. Ainley et al, 2010;D.A.…”

Section: Effects Of Advective Changes On Seabirds and Marine Mammalsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Advection in polar and sub-polar environments: Impacts on high latitude marine ecosystems

Hunt

Drinkwater

Arrigo

et al. 2016

Progress in Oceanography

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a b s t r a c tWe compare and contrast the ecological impacts of atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns on polar and sub-polar marine ecosystems. Circulation patterns differ strikingly between the north and south. Meridional circulation in the north provides connections between the sub-Arctic and Arctic despite the presence of encircling continental landmasses, whereas annular circulation patterns in the south tend to isolate Antarctic surface waters from those in the north. These differences influence fundamental aspects of the polar ecosystems from the amount, thickness and duration of sea ice, to the types of organisms, and the ecology of zooplankton, fish, seabirds and marine mammals. Meridional flows in both the North Pacific and the North Atlantic oceans transport heat, nutrients, and plankton northward into the Chukchi Sea, the Barents Sea, and the seas off the west coast of Greenland. In the North Atlantic, the advected heat warms the waters of the southern Barents Sea and, with advected nutrients and plankton, supports immense biomasses of fish, seabirds and marine mammals. On the Pacific side of the Arctic, cold waters flowing northward across the northern Bering and Chukchi seas during winter and spring limit the ability of boreal fish species to take advantage of high seasonal production there. Southward flow of cold Arctic waters into sub-Arctic regions of the North Atlantic occurs mainly through Fram Strait with less through the Barents Sea and the Canadian Archipelago. In the Pacific, the transport of Arctic waters and plankton southward through Bering Strait is minimal.In the Southern Ocean, the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and its associated fronts are barriers to the southward dispersal of plankton and pelagic fishes from sub-Antarctic waters, with the consequent evolution of Antarctic zooplankton and fish species largely occurring in isolation from those to the north. The Antarctic Circumpolar Current also disperses biota throughout the Southern Ocean, and as a result, the biota tends to be similar within a given broad latitudinal band. South of the Southern Boundary of the ACC, there is a large-scale divergence that brings nutrient-rich water to the surface. This divergence, along with more localized upwelling regions and deep vertical convection in winter, generates elevated nutrient levels throughout the Antarctic at the end of austral winter. However, such elevated nutrient levels do not support elevated phytoplankton productivity through the entire Southern Ocean, as iron concentrations are rapidly removed to limiting levels by spring blooms in deep waters. However, coastal http://dx

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Environmental Change and Antarctic Seabird Populations

Cited by 376 publications

References 26 publications

Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) survival rates and their relationship to environmental indices in the South Shetland Islands, Antarctica

Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) survival rates and their relationship to environmental indices in the South Shetland Islands, Antarctica

Contrasting population changes in sympatric penguin species in association with climate warming

Advection in polar and sub-polar environments: Impacts on high latitude marine ecosystems

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