ENSO Remote Forcing

Kug, Jong‐Seong; Vialard, Jérôme; Ham, Yoo‐Geun; Yu, Jin‐Yi; Lengaigne, Matthieu

doi:10.1002/9781119548164.ch11

Cited by 8 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 143 publications

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“…Indian Ocean basin-wide warming can further contribute to a transition from El Niño to La Niña 134 . The majority of models underestimate these remote impacts [135][136][137][138][139] , with implications for ENSO projections 41,140 .…”

Section: Inter-basin Interactionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changing El Niño–Southern Oscillation in a warming climate

Cai

Santoso

Collins

et al. 2021

Nat Rev Earth Environ

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257

207

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Originating in the equatorial Pacific, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has highly consequential global impacts, motivating the need to understand its responses to anthropogenic warming. In this Review, we synthesize advances in observed and projected changes of multiple aspects of ENSO, including the processes behind such changes. As in previous syntheses, there is an inter-model consensus of an increase in future ENSO rainfall variability. Now, however, it is apparent that models that best capture key ENSO dynamics also tend to project an increase in future ENSO sea surface temperature variability and, thereby, ENSO magnitude under greenhouse warming, as well as an eastward shift and intensification of ENSO-related atmospheric teleconnections -the Pacific-North American and Pacific-South American patterns. Such projected changes are consistent with palaeoclimate evidence of stronger ENSO variability since the 1950s compared with past centuries. The increase in ENSO variability, though underpinned by increased equatorial Pacific upper-ocean stratification, is strongly influenced by internal variability, raising issues about its quantifiability and detectability. Yet, ongoing coordinated community efforts and computational advances are enabling long-simulation, large-ensemble experiments and high-resolution modelling, offering encouraging prospects for alleviating model biases, incorporating fundamental dynamical processes and reducing uncertainties in projections.

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Section: Inter-basin Interactionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changing El Niño–Southern Oscillation in a warming climate

Cai

Santoso

Collins

et al. 2021

Nat Rev Earth Environ

Self Cite

257

207

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show abstract

“…However, after 2013, temperature anomalies were very high because of the cooccurrence of The Blob and the 2015-2016 ENSO. The last one, a combination of Eastern Pacific and Central Pacific El Niño, was characterized by a second warming point located in front of Baja California (Kug et al, 2021). During this span, the Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) reached record positive values, and subtropical Pacific temperature anomalies were high before, during, and after El Niño.…”

Section: Environment and The Bivalve Populationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…During this span, the Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) reached record positive values, and subtropical Pacific temperature anomalies were high before, during, and after El Niño. High temperature anomalies also may be associated with the positive phase of PDO, warming due to anthropogenic forcing (Kug et al, 2021), and the heatwaves NEPH 19 a, b, and NEPH20, the second-largest heatwave since 1982. After 2016, the La Niña phenomenon and NPGO have been very weak, limiting upwellings and nutrient-rich water mass advection from the northern Pacific.…”

Section: Environment and The Bivalve Populationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Environmental Considerations for the Management of the Bivalve Fisheries of Bahía Magdalena (Mexico), a Coastal Lagoon at the Southern End of the California Current

Jiménez-Quiroz

Barrón-Barraza²,

Cervantes‐Duarte

et al. 2021

Front. Mar. Sci.

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This study presents an overview of bivalve assemblages in Bahia Magdalena (BM, México) and the possible impact of environmental variability on these populations, constantly stressed by fishing. This lagoon is responsible for a high proportion of harvest of regional bivalves. First, we list the bivalve species reported in public biogeographic databases. Based on eight commercially exploited species, we described the composition of the bivalve assemblage and its biological characteristics, the history of fishery, and environmental variability in the marine area adjacent to the lagoon (1970–2019) and the habitat of bivalves (2002–2020). Sources of data were public databases and published literature. The enlisted species (n = 184) belong to six orders, and most are small and infaunal, but the structure of the assemblage is unknown. The fisheries began at different times and focused on the most valuable resources. Almost all harvest of bivalves had wide variations because of intensive fishing and a weak regulation frame. After 2015, the main resources were the Pacific wing-oyster (a new resource since 2017) and the geoduck clam due to the declining abundance of other resources (e.g., pen shells, Pacific calico scallop). There was a warming trend in the region since the 1970's, but the strongest El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases caused the most notable changes before 2013; after that year, a combination of large-scale phenomena increased the temperature significantly. The trend of chlorophyll-a abundance negatively correlated with temperature, but there was an almost constant supply of particulate organic matter in the interior of Bahia Magdalena (BM). After 2015, the quality of lagoon water gradually deteriorated, and in 2017 and 2019, harmful algal blooms developed, but the impact was not fully assessed. The challenges faced by the fishery are multiple (institutional weakness and regional warming); however, permanent monitoring programs of environmental conditions and critical biological variables should be implemented to design scenarios that allow fishery sustainability.

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“…This has led to poor quantification of these trans‐basin signals for lack of a uniform and reliable standard, which accounted for a large proportion of the uncertainties that brought about the disagreement concerning the relative importance of trans‐basin effects on ENSO. In addition, major effort was put into explaining the contributions of the SSTs in different ocean basins (Kug et al., 2020; Terray et al., 2016), leaving the subsurface features outside the tropical Pacific relatively unexplored. Thus, it remains unclear the extent to which the three interactive oceans might influence ENSO predictability.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the Relative Contributions of the Global Oceans to ENSO Predictability With Deep Learning

Li,

Tang,

Lian

et al. 2024

Geophysical Research Letters

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We propose a unified statistical method based on deep learning and analysis to quantify the relative contributions of the global oceans to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability. By incorporating subsurface signals in the Indian Ocean and Atlantic, the forecast lead can be skillfully extended by about one season. This skill enhancement mainly originates from the tropical Indian Ocean, presumably related to signals of the Indian Ocean Dipole passing to the tropical Pacific through the Indonesian Throughflow. The sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the Indian Ocean accounts for nearly 50% of surface contributions to both El Niño and La Niña predictions at a 15‐month lead. The north tropical Atlantic SSTA has a moderate impact on La Niña at a 9‐month lead. The Pacific Meridional Mode plays a significant role in both ENSO phases at a 12‐month lead. Thus, our study suggests that trans‐basin effects for ENSO are more vigorous than previously thought.

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ENSO Remote Forcing

Cited by 8 publications

References 143 publications

Changing El Niño–Southern Oscillation in a warming climate

Changing El Niño–Southern Oscillation in a warming climate

Environmental Considerations for the Management of the Bivalve Fisheries of Bahía Magdalena (Mexico), a Coastal Lagoon at the Southern End of the California Current

Quantifying the Relative Contributions of the Global Oceans to ENSO Predictability With Deep Learning

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