ENSO-Forced Variability of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Newman, Matthew; Compo, Gilbert P.; Alexander, Michael A.

doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<3853:evotpd>2.0.co;2

Cited by 599 publications

(461 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…The PDO is defined as the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly over the North Pacific ([20°N), and the leading principal component (PC1) is referred to as the PDO index (e.g., Mantua et al 1997;Minobe 1997;Zhang et al 1997;Garreaud and Battisti 1999; see review papers by Alexander 2010;Liu 2012). It is significantly correlated with ENSO (e.g., Alexander et al 2002;Newman et al 2003;Deser et al 2004;Schneider and Cornuelle 2005;Vimont 2005). On decadal timescales, the PDO is highly correlated with ENSO (Zhang and Church 2012) and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), a basin-wide decadal climate mode associated with decadal SST variability in the Pacific (e.g., Power et al 1999;Folland et al 2002;Meehl and Hu 2006).…”

Section: Pdo-related Sea Level Patternsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes

et al. 2016

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Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth's climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modes and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this paper, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR.

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Section: Pdo-related Sea Level Patternsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes

et al. 2016

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“…The relationship of the PDO to ENSO outliers is shown in Figure 13 for two typical La Niña and El Niño cases. In general, there is an expectation that the PDO will have the same sign as the concurrent ENSO event (see the discussion by Newman et al (2003)). This situation partially prevails in Figure 13 and in other outlier cases examined.…”

Section: Large-scale Climatic Oscillationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatic outliers

Hunt¹

2006

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Abstract:A 10 000-year simulation for 'present' climate has been generated with the CSIRO Mark 2 coupled climatic model. In this paper the model output has been analysed to produce a climatology of climatic outliers and to assess the role of such outliers in climatic variability. An assessment of the frequency of occurrence of outliers, compared with the statistical expectation from a Gaussian distribution, indicates that over most of the globe the surface temperature conforms to this distribution, but this is not the case for rainfall. Among the issues considered are the spatial occurrence rates over the globe of normalised climatic anomalies of various magnitudes, the temporal variability of outliers, the seasonal variability for a given outlier year, the spatial characteristics of outliers and the question of precursors to outliers. The relationship of outliers to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation is also considered. A case study examining the relative severities of an outlier drought to a severe drought is also undertaken. Finally, the role of outliers and the greenhouse effect is considered. It is concluded that outliers are a manifestation of stochastic forcing.

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“…Movement of TCs is affected by both external (Neumann, 1992) and internal Williams, 1987, 1994) factors. George and Gray (1976) and Chan and 828 A. Z.-C. GOH AND J. C. L. CHAN Gray (1982) related the 500-hPa flow to the steering of TCs, while Ho et al (2004) and Lee et al (2006) both suggested the subtropical high as a steering factor.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interannual and interdecadal variations of tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea

Goh

Chan

2009

Intl Journal of Climatology

108

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This study attempts to identify the factors affecting annual tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the South China Sea (SCS) using data during the period 1965-2005. The results indicate that the total number of TCs and number of TCs entering the SCS from the Western North Pacific are below normal in El Niño events but above normal during La Niña events. However, for TCs formed inside the SCS, the difference in numbers between the two phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is not as obvious. In addition, the positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) generally favours less TCs in all categories, while the negative PDO phase favours more. These results may be explained by the fact that the ENSO and the PDO affect TC behaviour through altering the conditions in the WNP to be favourable or unfavourable for TC genesis and movement into the SCS.

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ENSO-Forced Variability of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Cited by 599 publications

References 21 publications

Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes

Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes

Climatic outliers

Interannual and interdecadal variations of tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea

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