ENSO and interannual rainfall variability in Uganda: implications for agricultural management

Phillips, Jennifer; McIntyre, Beverly

doi:10.1002/(sici)1097-0088(200002)20:2<171::aid-joc471>3.0.co;2-o

Cited by 78 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…Nonetheless, support for crop development is subject to within-season rainfall characteristics and soil's water retention capacity. Compared with other seasons such as the ones in Sahelian and Guinean region (Sivakumar 1987;Kasei and Afuakwa 1991), Southern Africa (Tadross et al (Shisanya 1996;Phillips and McIntyre 2000), the two rainfall seasons in Tharaka district have a short growing period. In the neighbouring Ethiopia, Araya and Stroosnijder (2011) established that short growing periods were among the causes of crop failure.…”

Section: Variation In Seasonal Rainfall Amount and Rainy Daysmentioning

confidence: 94%

“…The ENSO is the most dominant perturbation responsible for inter-annual climate variability, especially OND over eastern and southern Africa. Studies by Ogallo (1988), Farmer (1988, Phillips and McIntyre (2000) and Hutchison (1990) have found OND rainfall to be in phase with ENSO. In general, seasonal rainfall in Tharaka district varies a lot around the mean, with occasions of subsequent below average rainfall.…”

Section: Trend Analysis Of Annual and Seasonal Rainfallmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…Inter-annual variability of seasonal rains results from complex interactions of forced and free atmospheric variations. Mutai et al (1998) observed that OND variability is stronger than MAM while Phillips and McIntyre (2000) observed that the low interannual variability of MAM rainfall can be attributed to its insignificant relationship with ENSO. The ENSO is the most dominant perturbation responsible for inter-annual climate variability, especially OND over eastern and southern Africa.…”

Section: Trend Analysis Of Annual and Seasonal Rainfallmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Determination of seasonal rainfall variability, onset and cessation in semi-arid Tharaka district, Kenya

Recha

Makokha

Traoré

et al. 2011

Theor Appl Climatol

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The study quantified rainfall variability for March-May (MAM) and October-December (OND) seasons in Tharaka district, Kenya. The parameters analysed were inter-annual variability of seasonal rainfall, onset and cessation using daily rainfall data in three agro-ecological zones' stations. Percentage mean cumulative method was used to determine onset and cessation, and seasonal variability was estimated using rainfall variability indices. Although both seasons are highly variable, OND has been persistently below mean over time while MAM shows high within-season variability. Despite the near uniformity in the mean onset and cessation dates, the former is highly variable on an inter-annual scale. The two rainfall seasons are inherently dissimilar and therefore require specific cropping in agro-ecological zone LM4 and LM4-5. It is possible that farmers in IL5 are missing an opportunity by under-utilising MAM rainfall. The results should be incorporated in implications of climate variability and vulnerability assessment in semi-arid Tharaka district.

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Section: Variation In Seasonal Rainfall Amount and Rainy Daysmentioning

confidence: 94%

Section: Trend Analysis Of Annual and Seasonal Rainfallmentioning

confidence: 98%

Section: Trend Analysis Of Annual and Seasonal Rainfallmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Determination of seasonal rainfall variability, onset and cessation in semi-arid Tharaka district, Kenya

Recha

Makokha

Traoré

et al. 2011

Theor Appl Climatol

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“…A closer analysis shows that the annual trend in rainfall is negative. This may have severe impacts on soil moisture and agricultural production in Namulonge, given the fact that the cropping system and planting time highly depends on rainfall distribution (Phillips and Mcintyre, 2000). The decrease is, however, not statistically significant at a 5% confidence level, with a decadal trend of -0.841 during the period 1947-2009 (Table 2).…”

Section: Rainfall Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatic Trends at Namulonge in Uganda: 1947-2009

Nsubuga

Olwoch²,

Rautenbach³

2011

JGG

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This paper investigates rainfall and temperature trends at Namulonge parish, in Wakiso district of Uganda using statistical techniques. Daily-observed temperature and rainfall records were aggregated into monthly means over a period of more than 55 years. These records were analyzed in an effort to identify both seasonal trends and shifts in climate. This was achieved by using non-parametric (Mann-Kendall) and parametric (linear regression) techniques. The analysis shows that total rainfall during the March-May season decreased, while maximum temperatures were increasing during the months between April and September, with both trends statistically significant at 5% confidence level. The Mann-Kendall test revealed that the number of wet days reduced significantly. Temperatures were found to be warmer and rainfall higher in the first climate normal compared to the recent 30 years. Results revealed that April was the only month with a statistically significant rainfall trend.

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“…1 and 3) and rainfall (time lag two years; for details see text) The diameter of symbols is proportional to the number of queens found in the colonies (maximum 7 queens). The contour lines give the probabilities for polygyny according to king and queen weight calculated from the equation: probability = e (-6.34 + 55.0*king -85.7*king 2 -0.222*queen) / (1+e (-6.34 + 55.0*king -85.7*king 2 -0.222*queen) ) and Mathu, 1999;Phillips and McIntyre, 2000), and the increased availability of water leads to an increase in primary production (Linthicum et al, 1999).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Yearly variation in polygyny in the termite Macrotermes michaelseni (Sj�stedt)

et al. 2004

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Macrotermes michaelseni, an abundant termite species in semi-arid ecosystems of eastern Africa, exhibits considerable fluctuations in the proportion of polygynous colonies across years (between 5 and 50 %). We found a negative correlation between rainfall and the proportion of polygynous colonies with a time lag of two years. A decrease in the percentage of polygynous colonies was particularly obvious in 1999 and 2000, two years after an El Niño-event. Rainfall and subsequent primary production seem to influence the degree of polygyny. Variation in the proportion of polygynous colonies could be due to several mutually nonexclusive factors, including better survival of polygynous colonies during years with low resource availability and increased aggression between nestmate queens with decreasing resource availability. Evaluating several lines of circumstantial evidence we suggest that the degree of polygyny depends on ecological factors.

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ENSO and interannual rainfall variability in Uganda: implications for agricultural management

Cited by 78 publications

References 18 publications

Determination of seasonal rainfall variability, onset and cessation in semi-arid Tharaka district, Kenya

Determination of seasonal rainfall variability, onset and cessation in semi-arid Tharaka district, Kenya

Climatic Trends at Namulonge in Uganda: 1947-2009

Yearly variation in polygyny in the termite Macrotermes michaelseni (Sj�stedt)

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