Ensemble projections of future streamflow droughts in Europe

Forzieri, Giovanni; Feyen, Luc; Rojas, Rodrigo; Flörke, Martina; Wimmer, Florian; Bianchi, Alessandra

doi:10.5194/hess-18-85-2014

Cited by 241 publications

(216 citation statements)

References 96 publications

(128 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

195

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Northern, Eastern and Central Europe show an opposite tendency with a strong reduction in drought frequency (Fig. 1) caused by higher precipitation that outweigh the effects of increased evapotranspiration (Forzieri et al 2014). Such effects translate mostly into consistent decreases in EAFE up to −100 % (Fig.…”

Section: Combining Multiple Hazardsmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…In our approach we focus on hazard-specific metrics of impact relevance that have been documented in recent literature. Details on the sensitivity analysis and calibration/validation exercises for each single hazard are reported in the references (Rojas et al 2012;Migliavacca et al 2013b;Outten and Esau 2013;Forzieri et al 2014;Cid et al 2014;Russo et al 2014). We recognize that extreme value fitting and kernel density estimators may introduce additional uncertainty in the projections of climate hazards especially at high return periods.…”

Section: Sources Of Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For inland flooding the annual maximum discharges and flood inundation maps were derived from earlier works (Rojas et al 2012;Rojas et al 2013). For drought the minimum discharges and return levels were obtained from a previous study (Forzieri et al 2014). Details in Text S1, Supplementary Material.…”

Section: Climate Hazard Indicatorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A number of climate change impact studies at the European level have been achieved, usually for a single specific climate or weather hazard, such as river floods (Rojas et al 2012;Alfieri et al 2015), coastal floods (Nicholls and Klein 2005;Hinkel et al 2010), heat waves (Fischer and Schär 2010;Russo et al 2015;Christidis et al 2015), streamflow droughts (Lehner et al 2006;Forzieri et al 2014), windstorms (Nikulin et al 2011;Outten and Esau 2013) and wildfires (Bedia et al 2013;Migliavacca et al 2013a). The study of multiple hazards poses two major challenges: (1) hazards are not directly comparable as their processes and describing metrics differ; and (2) hazards can interact triggering cascade effects and coupled dynamics.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Multi-hazard assessment in Europe under climate change

et al. 2016

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

While reported losses of climate-related hazards are at historically high levels, climate change is likely to enhance the risk posed by extreme weather events. Several regions are likely to be exposed to multiple climate hazards, yet their modeling in a joint scheme is still at the early stages. A multi-hazard framework to map exposure to multiple climate extremes in Europe along the twenty-first century is hereby presented. Using an ensemble of climate projections, changes in the frequency of heat and cold waves, river and coastal flooding, streamflow droughts, wildfires and windstorms are evaluated. Corresponding variations in expected annual exposure allow for a quantitative comparison of hazards described by different process characteristics and metrics. Projected changes in exposure depict important variations in hazard scenarios, especially those linked to rising temperatures, and spatial patterns largely modulated by local climate conditions. Results show that Europe will likely Climatic Change (2016)

show abstract

Section: Combining Multiple Hazardsmentioning

confidence: 96%

Section: Sources Of Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Climate Hazard Indicatorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Multi-hazard assessment in Europe under climate change

et al. 2016

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…E-mail: lenggy.11b@igsnrr.ac.cn Orlowsky and Seneviratne, 2013;Trenberth et al, 2014) or runoff/streamflow related extremes (e.g. Hirabayashi et al, 2013;Forzieri et al, 2014;van Huijgevoort et al, 2014). The limitations of these studies are that most of them focus on one single variable of interest for analysis.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessments of joint hydrological extreme risks in a warming climate in China

et al. 2015

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Understanding how hydrological extremes would respond to global warming and its associated uncertainties is important for better designing mitigation and adaption strategies to cope with global change. Very few works have investigated the changes in future hydrological extremes and, especially, the more devastating joint hydrological extremes over China. In this article, two combinations of joint extremes [i.e. high runoff/high soil moisture (HRHS) and low runoff/low soil moisture (LRLS)] are designed for analysis. To derive the scenarios of hydrological conditions, the bias-corrected daily climate projections from five global circulation models (GCMs) under the historical and Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission scenarios are used to drive the calibrated Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model from 1951 to 2099 over China. Results show notable increase of occurrence of HRHS in Northeast China, LRLS in Northwest and South of China under 2 ∘ C global warming. The spatial pattern of changes in joint extremes tends to remain stable with global temperature increase up to 3 ∘ C. Compared with the individual extreme risk, joint extreme are much more concentrated in Northwest and South China and the magnitude of changes is several times larger. Larger areas experiencing changes are found when using lower standards of extreme definition. Because hydrological regime may change gradually in response to climate change, the threshold derived from present regime may lead to misrepresentation of extreme risk analysis. This was demonstrated by the ten times smaller magnitude of changes when adopting the updated transient threshold representing the changing hydrological regime, thus providing a low-boundary of potential changes in extremes. Our results highlight the importance of considering the changing hydrological regime in addition to choosing various levels of threshold for extreme definition in order to cover the full range of possible extreme changes in a warming climate.

show abstract

A modeling study of irrigation effects on global surface water and groundwater resources under a changing climate

Leng

Huang

Tang

et al. 2015

J Adv Model Earth Syst

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study investigates the effects of irrigation on global water resources by performing and analyzing Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4) simulations driven by downscaled/bias-corrected historical simulations and future projections from five General Circulation Models (GCMs). For each climate scenario, three sets of numerical experiments were performed: (1) a CTRL experiment in which all crops are assumed to be rainfed; (2) an IRRIG experiment in which the irrigation module is activated using surface water (SW) to feed irrigation; and (3) a PUMP experiment in which a groundwater pumping scheme coupled with the irrigation module is activated for conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater (GW) for irrigation. The parameters associated with irrigation and groundwater pumping are calibrated based on a global inventory of census-based water use compiled by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Our results suggest that irrigation could lead to two major effects: SW (GW) depletion in regions with irrigation primarily fed by SW (GW), respectively. Furthermore, irrigation depending primarily on SW tends to have larger impacts on low-flow than high-flow conditions, suggesting increased vulnerability to drought. By the end of the 21st century, combined effect of increased irrigation water demand and amplified temporal-spatial variability of water supply may lead to severe local water scarcity for irrigation. Regionally, irrigation has the potential to aggravate/alleviate climate-induced changes of SW/GW although such effects are negligible when averaged globally. Our study highlights the need to account for irrigation effects and sources in assessing regional climate change impacts.Correspondence to: M. Huang, maoyi.huang@pnnl.gov Citation:Leng, G., M. Huang, Q. Tang, and L. R. Leung (2015), A modeling study of irrigation effects on global surface water and groundwater resources under a changing climate, J. Adv.

show abstract

Ensemble projections of future streamflow droughts in Europe

Cited by 241 publications

References 96 publications

Multi-hazard assessment in Europe under climate change

Multi-hazard assessment in Europe under climate change

Assessments of joint hydrological extreme risks in a warming climate in China

A modeling study of irrigation effects on global surface water and groundwater resources under a changing climate

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About