Assessments of joint hydrological extreme risks in a warming climate in China

Leng, Guoyong; Tang, Qiuhong; Huang, Shengzhi; Zhang, Xuejun; Cao, Junjun

doi:10.1002/joc.4447

Cited by 24 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 70 publications

(116 reference statements)

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“…The VIC model has been widely used in climate change impact and hydrologic variability studies (Beyene et al, 2009;Cuo et al, 2009;Hamlet & Lettenmaier, 1999;Lee et al, 2015;Leng et al, 2015;Nijssen et al, 2001;Munoz-Arriola et al, 2009;Parr et al, 2015). Previously, the VIC was found to make reasonable estimates of recharge in the western U.S. (Niraula et al, 2016) and Northeastern U.S. (Li et al, 2015).…”

Section: Sources Of Hydrologic Projections From Previous Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

How Might Recharge Change Under Projected Climate Change in the Western U.S.?

Niraula

Meixner

Domínguez

et al. 2017

Geophysical Research Letters

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Although groundwater is a major water resource in the western U.S., little research has been done on the impacts of climate change on groundwater storage and recharge in the West. Here we assess the impact of projected changes in climate on groundwater recharge in the near (2021–2050) and far (2071–2100) future across the western U.S. Variable Infiltration Capacity model was run with RCP 6.0 forcing from 11 global climate models and “subsurface runoff” output was considered as recharge. Recharge is expected to decrease in the West (−5.8 ± 14.3%) and Southwest (−4.0 ± 6.7%) regions in the near future and in the South region (−9.5 ± 24.3%) in the far future. The Northern Rockies region is expected to get more recharge in the near (+5.3 ± 9.2%) and far (+11.8 ± 12.3%) future. Overall, southern portions of the western U.S. are expected to get less recharge in the future and northern portions will get more. Climate change interacts with land surface properties to affect the amount of recharge that occurs in the future. Effects on recharge due to change in vegetation response from projected changes in climate and CO2 concentration, though important, are not considered in this study.

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Section: Sources Of Hydrologic Projections From Previous Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

How Might Recharge Change Under Projected Climate Change in the Western U.S.?

Niraula

Meixner

Domínguez

et al. 2017

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…This approach consists of using bias corrected and downscaled general circulation model (GCM) projections of climate variables (typically precipitation and temperature) to calculate streamflow using transfer functions, numerical hydrologic models, or a combination of both. This approach has been employed at a variety of spatial scales, including global (Arnell & Gosling, 2016;Dankers et al, 2014;Hirabayashi et al, 2013;Winsemius et al, 2016), continental (Alfieri et al, 2015;Madsen et al, 2014;Roudier et al, 2016), and national (Leng et al, 2016;Seidou et al, 2012). A major concern with this approach is that it is driven by GCM simulation of rainfall, which is known to be associated with shortcomings, particularly in regard to preservation of teleconnections (Langenbrunner & Neelin, 2013;Lee & Black, 2013;Polade et al, 2013;Sheffield et al, 2013aSheffield et al, , 2013b and accurate representation of extremes (Cretat et al, 2014;Dai, 2006;Rocheta et al, 2014;Sillmann et al, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A General Methodology for Climate‐Informed Approaches to Long‐Term Flood Projection—Illustrated With the Ohio River Basin

Schlef

François

Robertson

et al. 2018

Water Resources Research

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Estimating future hydrologic floods under nonstationary climate is a key challenge for flood management. Climate‐informed approaches to long‐term flood projection are an appealing alternative to traditional modeling chains. This work formalizes climate‐informed approaches into a general methodology consisting of four steps: (1) selection of predictand representing extreme events, (2) identification of credible large‐scale predictors that mechanistically control the occurrence and magnitude of the predictand, (3) development of a statistical model relating the predictors to the predictand, and (4) projection of the predictand by forcing the model with predictor projections. These four steps, developed from a review of the current literature, are demonstrated for multiple gages in the northwest Ohio River Basin in the United States Midwest as a case study. Floods are defined as annual maximum series events in January through April and are linked to geopotential height and soil moisture predictors in a Bayesian linear regression model. The projections generally show a slight decrease in future flood magnitude and demonstrate the transparency of the climate‐informed approach. An initial step for more general application across the United States and remaining challenges associated with climate‐informed flood projection are discussed.

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“…These regions have experienced serious water shortages in addition to intensive human activity and climate change (Wang and Cheng, 2000;Ma and Fu, 2003). In this case, the effects of LULC and climate changes on runoff are considerably more sensitive, and a dry climate can result in serious environmental degradation and water crises (Ma et al, 2008;Jiang et al, 2011;Leng et al, 2016). The Jinghe River basin (JRB), which is located on the central Loess Plateau, is a typical catchment located in a semi-humid and semi-arid transition zone in northwest China.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of land use/land cover and climate changes on surface runoff in a semi-humid and semi-arid transition zone in northwest China

Yin

Xiong

et al. 2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

161

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Abstract. Water resources, which are considerably affected by land use/land cover (LULC) and climate changes, are a key limiting factor in highly vulnerable ecosystems in arid and semi-arid regions. The impacts of LULC and climate changes on water resources must be assessed in these areas. However, conflicting results regarding the effects of LULC and climate changes on runoff have been reported in relatively large basins, such as the Jinghe River basin (JRB), which is a typical catchment (> 45 000 km 2 ) located in a semi-humid and arid transition zone on the central Loess Plateau, northwest China. In this study, we focused on quantifying both the combined and isolated impacts of LULC and climate changes on surface runoff. We hypothesized that under climatic warming and drying conditions, LULC changes, which are primarily caused by intensive human activities such as the Grain for Green Program, will considerably alter runoff in the JRB. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was adopted to perform simulations. The simulated results indicated that although runoff increased very little between the 1970s and the 2000s due to the combined effects of LULC and climate changes, LULC and climate changes affected surface runoff differently in each decade, e.g., runoff increased with increased precipitation between the 1970s and the 1980s (precipitation contributed to 88 % of the runoff increase). Thereafter, runoff decreased and was increasingly influenced by LULC changes, which contributed to 44 % of the runoff changes between the 1980s and 1990s and 71 % of the runoff changes between the 1990s and 2000s. Our findings revealed that large-scale LULC under the Grain for Green Program has had an important effect on the hydrological cycle since the late 1990s. Additionally, the conflicting findings regarding the effects of LULC and climate changes on runoff in relatively large basins are likely caused by uncertainties in hydrological simulations.

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Assessments of joint hydrological extreme risks in a warming climate in China

Cited by 24 publications

References 70 publications

How Might Recharge Change Under Projected Climate Change in the Western U.S.?

How Might Recharge Change Under Projected Climate Change in the Western U.S.?

A General Methodology for Climate‐Informed Approaches to Long‐Term Flood Projection—Illustrated With the Ohio River Basin

Effects of land use/land cover and climate changes on surface runoff in a semi-humid and semi-arid transition zone in northwest China

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