Ensemble distribution models in conservation prioritization: from consensus predictions to consensus reserve networks

Meller, Laura; Cabeza, Mar; Pironon, Samuel; Barbet‐Massin, Morgane; Maiorano, Luigi; Georges, Damien; Thuiller, Wilfried

doi:10.1111/ddi.12162

Cited by 106 publications

(83 citation statements)

References 49 publications

(69 reference statements)

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“…The relative contribution of individual patches to the regional connectivity depends on multiple factors, and only by accounting for these divergent conservation criteria can a good balance between the current and future habitat and connectivity requirements of all species within the network be ensured (Meller et al. ). We found that conserving connectivity and habitat quality for multiple species requires substantial increases in total habitat area protected and efficient prioritization of the habitat to be protected based on multiple criteria.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Applying network theory to prioritize multispecies habitat networks that are robust to climate and land‐use change

Albert

Rayfield

Dumitru

et al. 2017

Conservation Biology

220

131

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Designing connected landscapes is among the most widespread strategies for achieving biodiversity conservation targets. The challenge lies in simultaneously satisfying the connectivity needs of multiple species at multiple spatial scales under uncertain climate and land-use change. To evaluate the contribution of remnant habitat fragments to the connectivity of regional habitat networks, we developed a method to integrate uncertainty in climate and land-use change projections with the latest developments in network-connectivity research and spatial, multipurpose conservation prioritization. We used land-use change simulations to explore robustness of species' habitat networks to alternative development scenarios. We applied our method to 14 vertebrate focal species of periurban Montreal, Canada. Accounting for connectivity in spatial prioritization strongly modified conservation priorities and the modified priorities were robust to uncertain climate change. Setting conservation priorities based on habitat quality and connectivity maintained a large proportion of the region's connectivity, despite anticipated habitat loss due to climate and land-use change. The application of connectivity criteria alongside habitat-quality criteria for protected-area design was efficient with respect to the amount of area that needs protection and did not necessarily amplify trade-offs among conservation criteria. Our approach and results are being applied in and around Montreal and are well suited to the design of ecological networks and green infrastructure for the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services in other regions, in particular regions around large cities, where connectivity is critically low.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Applying network theory to prioritize multispecies habitat networks that are robust to climate and land‐use change

Albert

Rayfield

Dumitru

et al. 2017

Conservation Biology

220

131

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“…To account for the uncertainties of each statistical model and improve predictions of the current distribution of a species (Araújo, Whittaker, Ladle, & Erhard, ; Marmion, Parviainen, Luoto, Heikkinen, & Thuiller, ), we did an ensemble of five ENMs to assess the agreement or disagreement of their predictions. Combining ENMs within an ensemble could add information not shown in one single algorithm (Meller et al., ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Habitat assessment of Marco Polo sheep (Ovis ammon polii) in Eastern Tajikistan: Modeling the effects of climate change

Salas

Valdez

Michel³

et al. 2018

Ecology and Evolution

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Identifying the factors predicting the high‐elevation suitable habitats of Central Asian argali wild sheep and how these suitable habitats are affected by the changing climate regimes could help address conservation and management efforts and identify future critical habitat for the species in eastern Tajikistan. This study used environmental niche models (ENMs) to map and compare potential present and future distributions of suitable environmental conditions for Marco Polo argali. Argali occurrence points were collected during field surveys conducted from 2009 to 2016. Our models showed that terrain ruggedness and annual mean temperature had strong correlations on argali distribution. We then used two greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for two future time periods (2050 and 2070) to model the impacts of climate change on Marco Polo argali habitat. Results indicated a decline of suitable habitat with majority of losses observed at lower elevations (3,300–4,300 m). Models that considered all variables (climatic and nonclimatic) predicted losses of present suitable areas of 60.6% (6,928 km2) and 63.2% (7,219 km2) by 2050 and 2070, respectively. Results also showed averaged habitat gains of 46.2% (6,106 km2) at much higher elevations (4,500–6,900 m) and that elevational shifts of habitat use could occur in the future. Our results could provide information for conservation planning for this near threatened species in the region.

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“…biological invasions, V aclav ık & Meentemeyer, 2012; reserve designs, Meller et al, 2014), particularly for the prediction of the effect of climate change on biodiversity (Wiens et al, 2009;Franklin, 2010Franklin, , 2013Dawson et al, 2011;Bellard et al, 2012). biological invasions, V aclav ık & Meentemeyer, 2012; reserve designs, Meller et al, 2014), particularly for the prediction of the effect of climate change on biodiversity (Wiens et al, 2009;Franklin, 2010Franklin, , 2013Dawson et al, 2011;Bellard et al, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Contemporary niche contraction affects climate change predictions for elephants and giraffes

Martínez‐Freiría

Tarroso

Rebelo

et al. 2015

Diversity and Distributions

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Aim Climate change assessments are largely based on correlative species distribution models (SDMs) that are sensible to spatial biases or incompleteness of input distribution data. We tested whether changes on the species' climatic niche resulting from recent human-induced range contractions have a significant influence on SDM predictions of future species distributions.Location Africa.Methods For this study, we selected two highly detectable species with acknowledged human-induced range contractions, namely the African savanna elephant (Loxodonta africana) and giraffe (Giraffa camelopardalis). We used presence data until the 1970s to describe each species' historical distribution, while more recent data characterized the contemporary distribution. We compared the temporal variation between these species distributions using multivariate analyses and the combination of four different SDM algorithms to predict historical, contemporary and future distributional ranges under climate change scenarios. Results We show how range contraction differentially reduces the climatic variability associated with the species niche and has an important influence on the predictions of suitable climatic space and species vulnerability trend under climate change scenarios. Future predictions of the distribution of the elephant were mainly affected by the loss of occupied area at the margins of the historical distributions, resulting in a lesser predicted extent when using the contemporary dataset. As for the giraffe models, there were more dramatic consequences with large areas of West Africa failing to be predicted as suitable in the contemporary models, probably as a result from the loss of climatic information due to the species almost complete disappearance from that region.Main conclusions Our findings support the importance of considering historical distributional ranges of species in climate change studies in order to account for their full climatic niche and to derive more reliable predictions of future distribution. This is particularly important in species for which distributional ranges have been strongly affected by human activities.

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Ensemble distribution models in conservation prioritization: from consensus predictions to consensus reserve networks

Cited by 106 publications

References 49 publications

Applying network theory to prioritize multispecies habitat networks that are robust to climate and land‐use change

Applying network theory to prioritize multispecies habitat networks that are robust to climate and land‐use change

Habitat assessment of Marco Polo sheep (Ovis ammon polii) in Eastern Tajikistan: Modeling the effects of climate change

Contemporary niche contraction affects climate change predictions for elephants and giraffes

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