Habitat assessment of Marco Polo sheep (Ovis ammon polii) in Eastern Tajikistan: Modeling the effects of climate change

Abstract

Identifying the factors predicting the high‐elevation suitable habitats of Central Asian argali wild sheep and how these suitable habitats are affected by the changing climate regimes could help address conservation and management efforts and identify future critical habitat for the species in eastern Tajikistan. This study used environmental niche models (ENMs) to map and compare potential present and future distributions of suitable environmental conditions for Marco Polo argali. Argali occurrence points were collected during field surveys conducted from 2009 to 2016. Our models showed that terrain ruggedness and annual mean temperature had strong correlations on argali distribution. We then used two greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for two future time periods (2050 and 2070) to model the impacts of climate change on Marco Polo argali habitat. Results indicated a decline of suitable habitat with majority of losses observed at lower elevations (3,300–4,300 m). Models that considered all variables (climatic and nonclimatic) predicted losses of present suitable areas of 60.6% (6,928 km2) and 63.2% (7,219 km2) by 2050 and 2070, respectively. Results also showed averaged habitat gains of 46.2% (6,106 km2) at much higher elevations (4,500–6,900 m) and that elevational shifts of habitat use could occur in the future. Our results could provide information for conservation planning for this near threatened species in the region.

Assessing future distribution, suitability of corridors and efficiency of protected areas to conserve vulnerable ungulates under climate change

“…For our mostly arid region, we estimated, on average, 66.5 ± 10.11% reduction in current distribution of the target ungulates by 2070, which is similar to the estimate calculated for Marco polo sheep ( O. ammon polii ) in Tajikistan (65.6% loss; Salas, Valdez, Michel, & Boykin, 2018), but higher than those obtained for large mammals in generally less arid regions like the Tibetan Plateau (30%–55% loss; Luo et al., 2015), the African continent (18% loss; Thuiller et al., 2006), in tropical forests of Asia (37% loss; Deb, Phinn, Butt, & McAlpine, 2019) and temperate Europe (30% loss; Levinsky, Skov, Svenning, & Rahbek, 2007) indicating that climate change could have generally larger impacts on species in arid regions (Heffelfinger et al., 2018), such as central Iran. Within central Iran, however, we obtained different estimates of climate change impact on the future distribution of the ungulates, which may be related to varying rates of climate change across their habitats.…”

Climatic changes and the fate of mountain herbivores

“…As to mountain ungulates, far greater effects than those which are detected presently will occur, also on high mountain ranges, especially in case of a further increase of temperature. For example, habitat losses due to climatic changes have been predicted for Nilgiri tahr Nilgiritragus hylocrius, Western Ghats, India (Sony et al 2018), for Marco Polo argali Ovis ammon polii, in Tajikistan (Salas et al 2018), and for other ungulate species in the Tibetan plateau (Schaller 2012;Luo et al 2015;Jiang et al 2020). A mountain ungulate may survive the new conditions either by adapting through behavioural plasticity or by shifting its range to higher elevations.…”

Potential Impact of Climate Change on One-Horned Rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) in Nepal

“…Such an increase in temperature might have a profound effect on biodiversity and ecosystem, for example, predicted for Marco Polo Sheep and Gaint Panda. It is predicted that Marco Polo Sheep would lose its suitable habitat area in lower elevation of Tajikistan (12). Same was the case for Red Panda, in which model predicted the loss of favorable habitat by 16.3 ± 1.4 (%) in China.…”

“…Alarming warming in the Himalayas has started to exhibit in form of melting glaciers, change in hydrology patterns, agriculture, biodiversity, human health, ecosystem and livelihood (2). Such changes in climate have placed a threat for the large mammals of the mountainous country like Nepal (11,12). Effects have started to seen through the fragmentations and reductions of the suitable habitats of the animals.…”