Ensemble dispersion forecasting—Part I: concept, approach and indicators

Galmarini, Stefano; Bianconi, Roberto; Klug, W.; Mikkelsen, Torben; Addis, R.P.; Andronopoulos, S.; Astrup, Poul; Baklanov, Alexander; Bartniki, J.; Bartzis, J.C.; Bellasio, Roberto; Bompay, F.; Buckley, R.; Bouzom, M.; Champion, H. J.; D’Amours, R.; Davakis, E.; Eleveld, H.; Geertsema, Gertie; Glaab, H.; Kollax, M.; Ilvonen, Mikko; Manning, A. J.; Pechinger, U.; Persson, Christer; Polreich, E.; Potemski, S.; Prodanova, Maria; Saltbones, Jørgen; Slaper, H.; Sofiev, M.; Syrakov, Dimiter; Sørensen, Jens Havskov; Auwera, L. Van Der; Valkama, I.; Zelazny, R.

doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2004.05.030

Cited by 149 publications

(78 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…The recent studies of Galmarini et al (2004b) and Galmarini et al (2004a) used several models in Europe to analyze trends of ozone and particles concentrations. All chemical concentrations fields are combined to constitute an "ensemble".…”

Section: Ensemble Forecastingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Atmospheric composition forecasting in Europe

Menut

Bessagnet

2010

Ann. Geophys.

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Abstract.The atmospheric composition is a societal issue and, following new European directives, its forecast is now recommended to quantify the air quality. It concerns both gaseous and particles species, identified as potential problems for health. In Europe, numerical systems providing daily air quality forecasts are numerous and, mostly, operated by universities. Following recent European research projects (GEMS, PROMOTE), an organization of the air quality forecast is currently under development. But for the moment, many platforms exist, each of them with strengths and weaknesses. This overview paper presents all existing systems in Europe and try to identify the main remaining gaps in the air quality forecast knowledge. As modeling systems are now able to reasonably forecast gaseous species, and in a lesser extent aerosols, the future directions would concern the use of these systems with ensemble approaches and satellite data assimilation. If numerous improvements were recently done on emissions and chemistry knowledge, improvements are still needed especially concerning meteorology, which remains a weak point of forecast systems. Future directions will also concern the use of these forecast tools to better understand and quantify the air pollution impact on health.

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Section: Ensemble Forecastingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Atmospheric composition forecasting in Europe

Menut

Bessagnet

2010

Ann. Geophys.

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“…The ensemble approach has also been applied to photochemical and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) simulations in various numerical models (e.g., Galmarini et al, 2004;McKeen et al, 2005), photo-chemical reactions (e.g., Delle Monache and Stull, 2003), emission scenarios (e.g., Delle Monache et al, 2006), physical parameterizations (e.g., Mallet and Sportisse, 2006), and meteorological initial conditions (e.g., Bei et al, 2012). The ensemble means have generally performed better than most of the individual models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of meteorological uncertainties on the haze formation in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) during wintertime: a case study

Bei

Elser

et al. 2017

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

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Abstract. In the present study, a persistent heavy haze episode from 13 to 20 January 2014 in Beijing-TianjinHebei (BTH) is simulated using the WRF-CHEM model through ensemble simulations to investigate impacts of meteorological uncertainties on the haze formation. Model results show that uncertainties in meteorological conditions substantially influence the aerosol constituent simulations at an observation site in Beijing, and the ratio of the ensemble spread to the ensemble mean (RESM) exceeds 50 %. The ensemble mean generally preforms well in reproducing the fine particles' (PM 2.5 ) temporal variations and spatial distributions against measurements in BTH. The meteorological uncertainties do not alter the PM 2.5 distribution pattern in BTH principally or dominate the haze formation and development, but remarkably affect the simulated PM 2.5 level, and the RESM for the simulated PM 2.5 concentrations can be up to 30 % at the regional scale. In addition, the rather large RESM in PM 2.5 simulations at the city scale also causes difficulties in evaluation of the control strategies. Therefore, our results suggest that the ensemble simulation is imperative to take into account the impact of the meteorological uncertainties on the haze prediction.

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“…The model predictions are produced operationally by meteorological offices and radiation protection institutes in Europe, USA and Canada. Model results, produced according to a specific format, can be displayed in real time as single model or combined output by means of ad-hoc statistical treatments in groups (ensembles) for the simultaneous analysis of several forecasts [4]. The modelling groups participating to ENSEMBLE can access the system remotely through a simple web-browser, and each remote user can derive in real time an independent analysis of the information uploaded.…”

Section: Ensemblementioning

confidence: 99%

International data and information exchange in Europe - systems to assist the EU Member States in radiological and nuclear emergency situations

Cort¹,

Vries²,

Galmarini

et al. 2011

Radioprotection

Self Cite

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Abstract. During the early phase of a large-scale accident with release of radioactivity to the atmosphere, it is essential to notify and inform competent authorities as early and as extensively as possible. Only when the accident is rapidly notified and information is continuously made available in the form of real-time monitoring data and dispersion forecasts are decision makers able to define appropriate countermeasures. The Chernobyl accident taught us that information exchange should be carried out in a harmonised and consistent manner. Although several European countries already had developed automatic monitoring networks by 1986 and in some cases established bilateral agreements to exchange this information, the size of the accident demonstrated the need to extend such schemes to the continental scale. It became important to have commonly agreed international data formats and procedures in place. Over the past 25 years, the European Commission has invested in improving the rapid exchange of information and data in the event of a major accident. For the early phase of emergency support, it has focussed on three closely related systems: the early notification system ECURIE, the automatic data exchange platform EURDEP and the atmospheric dispersion model exchange and evaluation system ENSEMBLE. Starting from the legal background, we describe these information systems in detail with an emphasis on their current status and their planned future developments.

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Ensemble dispersion forecasting—Part I: concept, approach and indicators

Cited by 149 publications

References 20 publications

Atmospheric composition forecasting in Europe

Atmospheric composition forecasting in Europe

Impacts of meteorological uncertainties on the haze formation in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) during wintertime: a case study

International data and information exchange in Europe - systems to assist the EU Member States in radiological and nuclear emergency situations

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