Ensemble-based analysis of regional climate change effects on the cabbage stem weevil (Ceutorhynchus pallidactylus(Mrsh.)) in winter oilseed rape (Brassica napusL.)

Abstract

SUMMARYThe impact of projected regional climate change on the migration of cabbage stem weevil (Ceutorhynchus pallidactylus) to oilseed rape crops in the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg is evaluated for past and future time spans. Several threshold-based statistical models for the emergence and the main migration of C. pallidactylus were chosen from the literature and combined with selected regional climate change projections of the EU ENSEMBLES project. Additionally, a simple degree-day based model was used to assess the plant development under expected climate change conditions. An earlier onset as well as a prolongation of the possible emergence times and the main migration periods was detected. The onset of stem elongation of oilseed rape was predicted to occur 3·0 days earlier per decade, while emergence of C. pallidactylus was expected to occur between 3·0 and 3·3 days earlier per decade. The main migration period of the weevil to the field may start 2·0 days earlier per decade under future climate conditions. Additionally, the time span of possible migration is prolonged for about 30 days under projected future climate conditions.

Spatio-temporal Distributions and Associations of Cabbage Stem Weevil (Ceutorhynchus Pallidactylus Marsham, 1802) and Pollen Beetle (Brassicogethes Aeneus Fabricius, 1775) in winter oilseed rape

“…As shown in many previous studies (Alford et al, 2003;Seidenglanz et al, 2009;Junk et al, 2012;Vaitelyté et al, 2013; and many others) the dates when migration of C. pallidactylus and B. aeneus adults in winter oilseed rape crops commences, peaks and ends can fluctuate very considerably from year to year depending on a variety of environmental (especially meteorological) factors. In Europe, different ways of timing insecticidal sprays against these pests are based on continual monitoring of some simple-to-measure meteorological factors (individually or in combination) (in detail in Junk et al, 2012).…”

“…In Europe, different ways of timing insecticidal sprays against these pests are based on continual monitoring of some simple-to-measure meteorological factors (individually or in combination) (in detail in Junk et al, 2012). Great seasonal differences during the course of fly activity of these two insect pests also appeared in the three years of this study.…”

Towards a heuristic for assessing adaptation knowledge: impacts, implications, decisions and actions

“…For instance, water stress (drought or water excess) and thermal stress (heat or cold) might have large impacts on plant production by disrupting the phenology (foliation, flowering, life cycle, etc), growth and yield (size, number and quality of fruits/grains) of plants and their spatial distribution (Ebi et al 2009). The effects on animal production are similarly modelled, through examination of the disruption to feedstock production; and the distribution and propagation of emerging diseases that could impact plant and animal production (Junk et al 2012, Escarcha et al 2018.…”

Improving phenological forecasting models for rape stem weevil,Ceutorhynchus napiGyll., based on long‐term multisite datasets

“…Open‐source models of pest population dynamics would be of great value for integration with results of regional climate change projections to assess possible future impacts and risks (Junk et al. ; Eickermann et al. ).…”

“…The algorithms that describe the relationships between weather and pest phenology in this DSS have not been published. Open-source models of pest population dynamics would be of great value for integration with results of regional climate change projections to assess possible future impacts and risks (Junk et al 2012;Eickermann et al 2014).…”