Viticulture and winemaking are important socioeconomic sectors in many European regions. Climate plays a vital role in the terroir of a given wine region, as it strongly controls canopy microclimate, vine growth, vine physiology, yield, and berry composition, which together determine wine attributes and typicity. New challenges are, however, predicted to arise from climate change, as grapevine cultivation is deeply dependent on weather and climate conditions. Changes in viticultural suitability over the last decades, for viticulture in general or the use of specific varieties, have already been reported for many wine regions. Despite spatially heterogeneous impacts, climate change is anticipated to exacerbate these recent trends on suitability for wine production. These shifts may reshape the geographical distribution of wine regions, while wine typicity may also be threatened in most cases. Changing climates will thereby urge for the implementation of timely, suitable, and cost-effective adaptation strategies, which should also be thoroughly planned and tuned to local conditions for an effective risk reduction. Although the potential of the different adaptation options is not yet fully investigated, deserving further research activities, their adoption will be of utmost relevance to maintain the socioeconomic and environmental sustainability of the highly valued viticulture and winemaking sector in Europe.

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Background and Aims: Late frosts are a significant risk to grape production in frost-prone viticultural regions. Increasing air temperature because of climate change is likely to advance grape budburst and last frost events in spring. So far, it is unclear whether one trend will be more pronounced than the other, and hence, whether the risk of late frost damage will increase or decrease. The aim of this work was to investigate the future frost risk in the Luxembourgish winegrowing region by assessing the effect of simulated future climate conditions on the timing of budburst and last frost date. Methods and Results: Late frost risk was assessed by combining: (i) a phenological model for budburst of the grapevine (DORMPHOT); and (ii) ensemble-based projections of future air temperature. Analyses indicated that increasing spring temperature will advance the timing of budburst and the date of the last frost. This advancement, however, will be more pronounced for last frost events than for budburst. Conclusions: Modelled projections showed that the frequency of spring frost damage in the Luxembourgish winegrowing region will decrease, without completely excluding them for the near (2021-2050) or the far future . Significance of the Study: The application of a combination of a phenological model for grape budburst and ensemble-based projections of future air temperature enables the assessment of the future late frost risk in a frost-prone viticulture region.

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