Enhanced Eastern Pacific ENSO‐Tropical North Atlantic Connection Under Greenhouse Warming

Abstract

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the most prominent interannual mode in the Earth's climate system, influences global weather and climate via multiple teleconnection pathways (M. Cai et al., 2019;Yeh et al., 2018). One of the most important and well-known ENSO teleconnections to Atlantic Ocean is the sea surface temperature (SST) changes over the tropical North Atlantic (TNA). The changes in TNA SST associated with ENSO, also referred to the North Tropical Atlantic Mode (Wu et al., 2004;Yang et al., 2018), have broad impacts on devastating extreme weather events over the surrounding regions (

Tropical Atmospheric Response of Atlantic Niños to Changes in the Ocean Background State

“…Seasons are chosen based on the usual peak seasons of the Atlantic Niño and ENSO, and the maximum correlation between the Alt3 and Niño3‐indices occurs when the Atlantic leads by 6–8 months (Figure S1 in Supporting Information and Li et al. (2023)). The Atl3 and Niño3‐indices are defined by averaging SST anomalies in the equatorial Atlantic (3°N–3°S, 20°W–0) and the equatorial Pacific (5°S–5°N, 150°–90°W), respectively.…”

Future Changes in Active and Inactive Atlantic Hurricane Seasons in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model

“…All else similar, we hypothesize that a shift toward a La Niña‐like background state could further reduce wind shear in the tropical North Atlantic through changes in the Walker circulation, thus favoring Atlantic TC activity. However, SSTAs in the tropical Pacific could affect tropical north Atlantic SSTs, as well as the magnitude of ENSO teleconnections (e.g., Liu et al., 2021). In addition, simulations that form the basis for future climate projections would ideally include an interactive ocean, which would require improvements in simulated tropical SSTs (Hsu et al., 2019).…”

Multi‐Time Scale Variations in Atlantic Niño and a Relative Atlantic Niño Index

“…Li, Tan, et al. (2023) noted that such warming trends had significantly contributed to two extreme Atlantic Niños in 2019–2021 peaking in January 2020 and July 2021, respectively. It is meaningful to explore how to isolate the variations in Atlantic Niño in real‐time monitoring.…”

“…(2023) who noted that the extremely strong Atlantic Niños in 2019–2021 were only predicted at a 1‐month lead and partially captured at a 2‐month lead. That may be partially attributed to the low predictability for Benguela Niño, which is a trigger for Atlantic Niño (Hu & Huang, 2007b; Li, Tan, et al., 2023; Lübbecke et al., 2010).…”

“…Due to geographically heterogeneous trends (e.g., McPhaden et al., 2020), different long‐term trends are observed in the tropical oceans, including in the ENSO (e.g., Fedorov & Philander, 2000; Hu et al., 2020; L’Heureux, et al., 2013; Lee et al., 2022; Zheng et al., 2016; Zhang et al., 1998) and Atlantic Niño (Li, Tan, et al., 2023) regions. Such trends affect the strength estimates of ENSO (e.g., Li et al., 2019) and Atlantic Niño (Li, Tan, et al., 2023). Physically, both ENSO and Atlantic Niño are seasonal‐to‐interannual time‐scale phenomena, and so it is a challenge to monitor their seasonal‐to‐interannual variations in the presence of differential background warming.…”