Energy descent as a post-carbon transition scenario: How ‘knowledge humility’ reshapes energy futures for post-normal times

1.5 °C degrowth scenarios suggest the need for new mitigation pathways

“…To avoid sudden demand gaps, we decreased their rates of growth by 0.75% and 0.3% per year, respectively. Moreover, this is in line with current knowledge about the logistic growth patterns of renewables 71 as well as with increasing issues concerning intermittency, EROI and resources connected to increasing scale 34,37 . According to the International Energy Agency 72 , other renewable technologies such as "concentrating solar power, geothermal and ocean technologies are currently not on track with their SDS targets".…”

“…However, a recent IAM modelling study using the MEDEAS IAM framework finds that such energy constraints are likely to reduce GDP growth 23 . In addition, Floyd et al 37 summarise 10 points implying deep uncertainties in renewable energy's ability to meet a high and rising energy demand, stating that the lower the energy demand, the higher the likelihood to meet it. Thus, this review points towards a 100% renewable energy economy likely being a smaller one, in GDP and final energy terms.…”

The Political Economy of Deep Decarbonization: Tradable Energy Quotas for Energy Descent Futures

“…We seek to understand the scope for RE to replace the extent and nature of energy services provided by fossil fuels, a question of urgency for existing economic systems due to both climate change and the finitude of fossil fuels. We proceed from a position of epistemic humility [6]-that is, from an appreciation of deep uncertainties surrounding energy futures, and therefore of what knowledge claims relating to this area of investigation can reasonably be made in the present. These uncertainties imply the need to hold serious doubts about whether RE (or nuclear) can fully replace what it is that human societies do at present via fossil fuels.…”

“…With respect to the most energy intensive societies, this means planning for 'energy descent', a term we borrow from permaculture theorist and practitioner, David Holmgren [35]. While acknowledging a range of uncertainties about how humanity's energy futures will unfold, our review of the literature [6,36] supports the view that energy descent is not only highly plausible, but that there is no epistemically sound basis for treating this as simply a 'high-impact but relatively low probability' outcome of the transition away from fossil fuels (see also, [20][21][22][23][24]]. This implies that planning and preparing for such futures should be given far greater weight in energy transition praxis than is presently the case.…”

“…The extent to which alternative lower carbon sources can meet energy expectations formed in the context of fossil fuels is subject to major uncertainties. It is highly plausible though that such sources will not be able to fully replace the range and scale of energy services currently available [6]. Such a view provides essential context for the present analysis.…”