Endangering the integrity of science by misusing unvalidated models and untested assumptions as facts: General considerations and the mineral and phosphorus scarcity fallacy

Abstract

There is increasing demand for science to contribute to solving societal problems (solutionism). Thereby, scientists may become normative activists for solving certain problems (advocacy). When doing this, they may insufficiently differentiate between scientific and political modes of reasoning and validation (de-differentiationism), which is sometimes linked to questionable forms of utilizing the force of facts (German: Faktengewalt). Scientific findings are simplified and communicated in such a way that they acquire a status as unfalsifiable and absolutely true (truth to power). This becomes critical if the consistency and validation of the findings are questionable and scientific models underlying science activists’ actions are doubtful, oversimplified, or incorrect. Herein, we exemplarily elaborate how the integrity of science is endangered by normative solutionist and sociopolitically driven transition management and present mineral scarcity claims that ignore that reserves or resources are dynamic geotechnological-socioeconomic entities. We present the main mineral scarcity models and their fallacious assumptions. We then discuss the phosphorus scarcity fallacy, which is of particular interest as phosphorus is non-substitutable and half of all current food production depends on fertilizers (and thus phosphorus). We show that phosphorus scarcity claims are based on integrating basic geoeconomic knowledge and discuss cognitive and epistemological barriers and motivational and sociopolitical drivers promoting the scarcity fallacy, which affects high-level public media. This may induce unsustainable environmental action. Scientists as honest knowledge brokers should communicate the strengths but also the constraints and limits of scientific modeling and of applying it in reality.

What we have learned from the past and how we should look forward

“…in the year 2020 the zinc reserves would have been used up. In retrospect, the situation turned out as follows (Scholz and Wellmer 2021):…”

The role of transdisciplinarity for mineral economics and mineral resource management: coping with fallacies related to phosphorus in science and practice

“…Thus, practically speaking, the majority of countries have PR resources. If we look at the production side, phosphorus holds the 28th position (counting from the lowest to the highest HHI; i.e., Herfindahl–Hirschman Index) of 53 commodities, which is close to the median value (Scholz and Wellmer 2021 ).…”

“…Certainly, it is smaller than , which is the maximum “number of atoms in any kind of star” (Hogan 2000 ). The amount of phosphorus in Earth’s crust is sufficient to provide the annual current rate of consumption for 63 million years (Scholz and Wellmer 2021 ). What this means is unclear (as Earth’s terrestrial crust has an average thickness of about 35 km).…”

“…An inquiry of 16 practitioners from the Global TraPs project board (i.e. Global Transdisciplinary Processes on Phosphorus Management; see Scholz et al 2014a , b ; Steiner et al 2015 ) found that 15 of 16 responding practitioners consider statement 3 of Table 1 to be absolutely wrong (Scholz and Wellmer 2021 ). The sole practitioner who shared the scarcity view specialized in phosphorus plant uptake in agriculture.…”

“…It discusses the need for transdisciplinary processes. This is done when considering a set of known fallacies such as the scarcity fallacy (Scholz and Wellmer 2013b , 2021 ) and the phosphorus supply causes prices peak fallacy (Weber et al 2014 ) and two fallacies which have not been discussed that far much, i.e., the only few countries have mineable phosphorus fallacy and phosphorus ore grades increased by 3.2% between 1983 and 2013 , which is due to Simpson’s paradox. The paper illustrates the value of transdisciplinarity by the example of Friedrich-W. Wellmer’s disciplinary, interdisciplinary, and transdisciplinary contributions.…”