What we have learned from the past and how we should look forward

Abstract

From the vantage point of more than 50 years' work in the raw material field, as well as working in the private sector, in the German federal ministry of economics, at a geological survey, and engaged in teaching and supervising research at a university, I draw a number of conclusions about the following aspects of the fields: development of long-term prices, the long-term supply situation, especially the expectation of an imminent peaking of supply, the frequent and mistaken prediction of shortfalls in supply, our understanding of reserves and resources, and the cyclic nature of success in exploration. I am solely dealing with geological aspects, not taking into account political inferences and supply disruptions. This is followed by an attempt to look into the future of raw materials demand within the framework of the accelerating green energy transition. These conclusions are:

Can ultimate recoverable resources (URRs) be assessed? Does analyzing declining ore grades help?

“…These latter inventions coincided with the slump in global demand for metals following WWI that created a new lower-price plateau that, since then, has remained more or less constant in real terms (Fig. 1) (Buchholz et al 2020;Wellmer 2022). The break in the price plateau in real terms after WWI is not only obvious for the sum of all base metals, as shown in Fig.…”

“…Since an approximate cumulative production of 100,000,000 t (tonnes) that occurred in 1959, the curve shows a very linear trend with this high coefficient of determination of 0.9725. This holds for a cumulative production from 100,000,000 t to today (764,000,000 t in 2020 (BGR 2021), i.e., for the last 87% of cumulative production since 1900 or 85% of all copper mined worldwide historically (Hong et al 1996;Wellmer 2022). From 1959 to 2018, the average grade of copper produced worldwide decreased from 1.76% Cu to 0.56% Cu, and production increased from 3.4 million t to 20.6 million t (Schodde 2019;BGR 2021).…”

“…We focus particularly on copper because long time series are observed over years and are available (e.g., Ayres et al 2002;Gerst 2008;Crowson 2012; and the newest data from Schodde 2019). With Schodde's (2019) grade data from 1900 and due to the exponential increase of copper production since then, data about grade and tonnage are available for about 98% of all copper mined since the beginning of the copper age (Hong et al 1996;Wellmer 2022). It is our opinion, however, that results from the example of copper can be generalized to other commodities.…”

“…The data are derived from the London Metal Exchange and its predecessors (afterStuermer 2013Stuermer /2018Stürmer 2013; Stürmer M. 2021, Personal Communication). The corrections for inflation are based on the British Consumer Price Index (fromWellmer 2022)…”

The role of transdisciplinarity for mineral economics and mineral resource management: coping with fallacies related to phosphorus in science and practice

“…To achieve these, scientists must venture beyond their inner scientific comfort zones and become transdisciplinarians. During his professional life, Fred Wellmer took on different roles working at the interface of mineral science as a scientific field and as a participant in various societal interest and actor groups (Wellmer 2022). Doing so requires the ability to interact with stakeholders who have different roles and interests and who are concerned about, causing, or regulating challenges and contestation among key actors and other stakeholders in the context of often-sensitive issues related to the mineral supply chain.…”