Empowering activists or autocrats? The Internet in authoritarian regimes

Abstract

The reported role of social media in recent popular uprisings against Arab autocrats has fueled the notion of 'liberation technology', namely that information and communication technology (ICT) facilitates organization of antigovernment movements in autocracies. Less optimistic observers, on the other hand, contend that ICT is a tool of repression in the hands of autocrats, imposing further restrictions on political and social liberties. We investigate whether the liberation-or the repression-technology perspective can better explain empirically observed patterns.To this end, we analyze two outcomes. First, we look at which autocracies are more likely to adopt and expand the Internet. In line with the repression technology expectation, we find that regimes aiming to prevent any independent public sphere are more likely to introduce the Internet. Second, we study the effects of the Internet on changes towards democracy. This analysis reveals no effect of the Internet on political institutions. These findings provide moderate support for the 'repression technology' perspective, and suggest that the Internet has not -at least in its first two decades of existence -contributed to a global shift towards democracy.

Network Approach to Regime Type and Global Internet Connectedness

“…Whether or how forms of political institutions, regime type, influence the government's Internet adoption or whether the government's Internet adoption affects its democratic process has been a topic of great interest in recent years Guillén and Suárez, 2005;Seo and Thorson, 2012;Kedzie, 1997;Milner, 2006;Norris, 2001;Rød and Weidmann, 2015. Empirical and theoretical studies in this area have presented somewhat conflicting arguments.…”

“…The first argues that there is a significant association between the type of political institution and the country's adoption of digital communication technologies such as the Internet with democratic countries being more likely to adopt the InternetGuillén and Suárez, 2005; Kedzie, 1997;Milner, 2006. In contrast, the second group argues that the Internet adoption does not always help a country become more open or democratic Rød and Weidmann, 2015. Examining data from roughly 200 countries from 1991 to 2001, Milner, 2006 found that political institutions significantly influenced the spread of the Internet even after controlling for alternative explanations such as economic development. In particular, Milner argued that regime type plays an important role in this with democracies adopting the Internet at a much faster pace than autocracies.…”

“…However, others have argued that the association between the Internet and democratic development is overstated Rød and Weidmann, 2015. For example, based on an empirical analysis of Internet use in authoritarian regimes from 1993 to 2010, Rød and Weidmann, 2015 claimed that autocracies concerned about the domestic information environment are more likely to introduce the Internet than other autocracies.…”

“…For example, based on an empirical analysis of Internet use in authoritarian regimes from 1993 to 2010, Rød and Weidmann, 2015 claimed that autocracies concerned about the domestic information environment are more likely to introduce the Internet than other autocracies. In addition, their data showed that movements toward democracy were more frequent in autocratic countries with low Internet penetration.…”

“…In particular, we aim to provide insight into whether and how a country's regime type is associated with the country's connections with other countries via the Internet (global level). While previous studies examined the influence of regime type on technology adoption or vice versaGuillén and Suárez, 2005;Seo and Thorson, 2012;Kedzie, 1997;Milner, 2006;Norris, 2001;Rød and Weidmann, 2015, little research has examined the topic at both country and global levels. We aim to fill this gap in the literature by analyzing relevant data from 2002 to 2011 using network analysis and panel regression.…”