Elevation dependent warming over the Tibetan Plateau: Patterns, mechanisms and perspectives

You, Qinglong; Chen, Deliang; Wu, Fu‐Peng; Pepin, Nick; Cai, Ziyi; Ahrens, Bodo; Jiang, Zhihong; Wu, Zhiwei; Kang, Shichang; AghaKouchak, Amir

doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103349

Cited by 150 publications

(70 citation statements)

References 140 publications

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“…The phenomenon of elevation-dependent warming (EDW) is observed and projected as the significant phenomenon leading to abrupt warming at higher altitudes (Rangwala et al, 2010). The EDW phenomenon is significantly increasing during winters and annual scale due to mechanisms involving snow-albedo positive feedback, nighttime cloud cover, higher midtroposphere water vapor, aerosols' concentration, and land-use changes at higher altitudes (Pepin et al, 2019;You et al, 2017You et al, , 2020. The future temperature surge under the aforementioned phenomenon of EDW will pose severe impacts on the hydrology (Hasnain, 2014), ecosystems (Schickhoff et al, 2016) and human development (Shrestha et al, 2015) of the HKH region.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Changes in Seasonal Temperature Over Pakistan in CMIP6

Karim¹,

Tan²,

Ayugi³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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The present study analyzed seasonal (i.e., Dec-Jan [DJF] and June – August [JJA]) temperature change for the near (2025-2054) and far future (2070-2099) under SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios over Pakistan. The anomalies, Mann-Kendall trend tests, Sequential Mann-Kendall trend test (SQMK), and probability density frequency (PDF) analysis were used to investigate future mean temperature variations. The DJF season projected higher increase in temperature in the northern (3.8 oC, 5.1 oC and 6.5 oC), followed by central regions (3.8 oC, 4.9 oC and 6.4 oC) under SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. The central region is likely to record significant increase in JJA (3.0 oC, 4.4 oC and 5.4 oC) mean temperature in far future under the given SSP scenarios. Compared to historical (PDF), the far future DJF temperature changes revealed significant higher warming over northern, central and then over southern regions under most of SSP scenarios. The southern regions are projected to possible rise in far future JJA temperatures by 2.7 oC, 3.3 oC and 4.3 oC, under SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585, respectively. The PDFs for JJA further verify the highest positive abrupt shift in temperature across the central region and then southern region. The future diverse seasonal temperature changes supports further examination of the associated mechanisms and factors responsible for temperature changes to address climate change.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Changes in Seasonal Temperature Over Pakistan in CMIP6

Karim¹,

Tan²,

Ayugi³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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“…Numerous studies based on in-situ observations confirm significant warming over the TP during recent decades (Duan and Xiao 2015;Liu and Chen 2000;Rangwala et al 2009), and most of them demonstrate that the warming rate is amplified with elevation (Duan and Xiao 2015;New et al 2002;Qin et al 2009), which is referred to as elevationdependent warming (EDW). However, the available meteorological stations over the TP are unevenly distributed and mainly located over relatively low altitudes (You et al 2020), which limits the availability of climate information for the TP and our understanding of relevant processes causing the EDW, especially for the high elevation regions.…”

Section: Introductionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…EDW is the response to various processes that have feedbacks at different scales, and a variety of mechanisms have been proposed to explain it (Rangwala and Miller 2012;Rangwala et al 2010;You et al 2020). Surface albedo feedback (SAF) is considered as the main driver for the EDW, as evidenced by the maximum warming occurring near the annual 0℃ isotherm and by strong correlations between simulated patterns of warming and albedo reductions (Giorgi et al 1997;Minder et al 2018;Pepin and Lundquist 2008;Yan et al 2016).…”

Section: Introductionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The performance of CORDEX-EA-II simulations in simulating seasonal temperature and elevation-dependent warming over the Tibetan Plateau

et al. 2021

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To explore the driving mechanisms of elevation-dependent warming (EDW) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), the output from a suite of numerical experiments with different cumulus parameterization schemes (CPs) under the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments-East Asia (CORDEX-EA-II) project is examined. Results show that all experiments can broadly capture the observed temperature distributions over the TP with consistent cold biases, and the spread in temperature simulations commonly increases with elevation with the maximum located around 4000–5000 m. Such disagreements among the temperature simulations could to a large extent be explained by their spreads in the surface albedo feedback (SAF). All the experiments reproduce the observed EDW below 5000 m in winter but fail to capture the observed EDW above 4500 m in spring. Further analysis suggests that the simulated EDW during winter is mainly caused by the SAF, and the clear-sky downward longwave radiation (LWclr) plays a secondary role in shaping EDW. The models’ inability in simulating EDW during spring is closely related to the SAF and the surface cloud radiative forcing (CRFs). Furthermore, the magnitude and structure of the simulated EDW are sensitive to the choice of CPs. Different CPs generate diverse snow cover fractions, which can modulate the simulated SAF and its effect on EDW. Also, the CPs show great influence on the LWclr via altering the low-level air temperature. Additionally, the mechanism for different temperature changes among the experiments varies with altitudes during summer and autumn, as the diverse temperature changes appear to be caused by the LWclr for the low altitudes while by the SAF for the middle-high altitudes.

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“…Under global warming, warming rates in mountain regions often depend on elevation (Hock et al., 2020). Observations show that the dependence can be either positive or negative and the relationship between the warming rate and elevations may not be linear (Palazzi, Mortarini, et al., 2019; You et al., 2020). There is growing evidence of EDW (positive elevational gradients of warming) over the TP in recent decades (Guo, Sun, et al., 2019; Liu et al., 2009), and whether this feature will continue to exist in the future gains wide attention.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Elevation‐Dependent Warming Over the Tibetan Plateau From an Ensemble of CORDEX‐EA Regional Climate Simulations

et al. 2021

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Under the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments‐East Asia (CORDEX‐EA‐II), the outputs from two regional climate models (RCMs) driven by four global climate models (GCMs) are used to investigate the characteristics and possible mechanisms of the projected elevation‐dependent warming (EDW) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) under the Representative Concentration Pathway emission scenario 8.5 (RCP8.5). Results show that widespread warming over the TP is projected with considerable disagreements in warming intensity and the maximum warming center among RCMs. The largest spread in the surface air temperature (Tas) projections is found above 5,000 m, indicating that a large uncertainty exists over the higher elevations. A marked EDW signal over the TP is simulated under the RCP 8.5 by the multi‐RCM ensemble mean for all seasons, particularly in autumn. Based on the analysis of the surface energy budget, it is found that the surface albedo feedback (SAF) is the primary contributor to EDW and acts as the main source of uncertainty in EDW projections among RCMs. The downward longwave radiation (DLW) is found to be the dominant factor in regulating Tas change over the TP, and its contribution to EDW is model‐dependent. Furthermore, the structure and magnitude of projected EDW are sensitive to the RCM physics and driving GCM, as they can alter the projections of snow cover and albedo, which modulate the simulated SAF and its effect on EDW. Additionally, RegCM4 shows a higher sensitivity to the anthropogenic greenhouse forcing than WRF, evidenced by the larger temperature projections and stronger EDW signal in RegCM4.

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Elevation dependent warming over the Tibetan Plateau: Patterns, mechanisms and perspectives

Cited by 150 publications

References 140 publications

Future Changes in Seasonal Temperature Over Pakistan in CMIP6

Future Changes in Seasonal Temperature Over Pakistan in CMIP6

The performance of CORDEX-EA-II simulations in simulating seasonal temperature and elevation-dependent warming over the Tibetan Plateau

Elevation‐Dependent Warming Over the Tibetan Plateau From an Ensemble of CORDEX‐EA Regional Climate Simulations

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