Eleição proporcional em 2020: uma análise do desempenho feminino nos municípios brasileiros

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of municipal political and sociodemographic factors on female representation in the 2020 elections. Hypotheses are derived from theories about the influences of socioeconomic conditions, electoral competition and district size on women's performance in proportional elections. Four dependent variables were analyzed: proportion of female candidates, campaign funding, percentage of votes and percentage of seats won by councilors. Bivariate descriptive analysis were used through ANOVA and post-hoc tests between population size categories and dependent variables; pearson correlation matrix between quantitative variables; and, finally, multilevel hierarchical econometric models were built in order to perform multivariate analysis that would allow the simultaneous estimation of the impacts of independent variables and control for the random effects of states. The results point to inversely proportional impacts between the size of the municipality and the percentage of applications and funding. Socioeconomic variables of the municipalities had little or no impact on women's performance in all variables analyzed. Electoral competition had a positive impact on the percentage of female candidates, but a negative impact on the percentage of votes and seats won by women.