Eleição de Dilma ou segunda reeleição de Lula? Uma análise espacial do pleito de 2010

Magalhães, André Matos; Silva, Marcelo Eduardo Alves da; Dias, F. F.

doi:10.1590/1807-01912015213535

Cited by 14 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…Others researchers have found evidence that the electoral alignments of 2006 were maintained during the elections of 2010 and 2014 (MARZAGÃO, 2013;PEREIRA et al, 2015;MAGALHÃES;SILVA;DIAS, 2015). They found evidence that the municipalities that voted for the PT in 2010 were the ones that had voted in the PT in 2006.…”

Section: Voting Determinants In Brazilmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic voting in Brazilian presidential elections: evidence with panel data from municipalities in São Paulo

Fernandes

2019

Organ. Soc.

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This paper uses a new data panel of 625 Brazilian municipalities over 5 election years to analyze the influence of the local level economic performance on the proportion of votes obtained by the incumbent in national elections. We examine municipalities from the State of São Paulo, the most populous Brazilian state, using fixed-effects and random- effects models. The results suggest that the performance of the local economy is relevant in the national elections. Apart from that, the results also suggest that the mayors play an important role in the national elections when it comes to transfer votes that are favorable to the coalition in power and that the richest municipalities tend to be more opposition prone.

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Section: Voting Determinants In Brazilmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic voting in Brazilian presidential elections: evidence with panel data from municipalities in São Paulo

Fernandes

2019

Organ. Soc.

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“…Similarly, [Martins et al 2016] applied spatial regression analysis to understand the factors that influenced the 2014 presidential election. Using spatial econometrics techniques, [Carvalho and Menezes 2015] and [Magalhães et al 2015] analyzed the Brazilian presidential elections of 2010 in a national scope. They considered data from the Bolsa Família Program 4 , Gross Domestic Product, and Human Development Index to build models that calculate their impact on the percentage of votes received by the Workers' Party.…”

Section: • 33mentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysing Spatio-Temporal Voting Patterns in Brazilian Elections Through a Simple Data Science Pipeline

Jacintho

Silva

Parmezan

et al. 2021

jidm

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Since 1989, the first year of the democratic presidential election after a long period of a dictatorship regime, Brazil conducted eight presidential elections. Short and long-term shifts of power and two impeachment processes marked such a period. This instability is a research case in electoral studies, mainly regarding the understanding of citizens' voting behavior. Comprehending patterns in the population behavior can give us insight into phenomena and processes that affect democratic political decisions. In light of this, our paper analyses Brazilian electoral data at the municipal level from 1998 to 2018 using a simple data science pipeline, which consists of five steps: (i) data selection; (ii) data preprocessing; (iii) identification of spatial patterns, in which we seek to understand the role of space in the election results employing spatial auto-correlation techniques; (iv) identification of temporal patterns, where we investigate similar trends of votes over the years applying a hierarchical clustering method; and (v) evaluation of results. We study the presidential elections focusing on the right and left-wing parties most relevant for the period: the Brazilian Social Democracy Party~(PSDB) and the Workers' Party~(PT). We also analyse the congressman election data regarding parties ideologically to the right and left in the political spectrum. Through the obtained results, we found the existence of spatial dependence in every electoral year investigated. Moreover, despite the changes in the political-economic context over the years, neighboring cities seem to present similar voting behavior trends.

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“…La explicación de estos cambios geográficos es el efecto del programa Bolsa Família. En la misma línea, Magalhães et al (2015) entre Bolsa Família y voto al PT, más allá de la relación negativa entre el programa y el voto a candidatos de la oposición. En este trabajo, los autores también comparan resultados de regresiones clásicas y geográficas (que consideran la quiebra del supuesto de independencia entre residuos), demostrando que los modelos geográficos se ajuntan mejor que los clásicos.…”

Section: Emerson Urizzi Cervi Análisis Espacial Del Desempeño Electorunclassified

Análisis espacial del desempeño electoral de PT y PSDB entre 1994 y 2014 en Brasil

Cervi

2017

Am. Lat. Hoy. Rev. Cienc. Soc.

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Fecha de recepción: 5 de abril del 2016Fecha de aceptación y versión final: 22 de enero del 2017 RESUMEN: El artículo integra los campos de investigación en geografía y representación electoral en Brasil. El objetivo es analizar los perfiles de votación de los partidos Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) y Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira (PSDB) por municipalidad entre 1994 y 2014. La hipótesis es que existe un cambio en el patrón geográfico de votos. Las variables explicativas son el PIB per cápita, el Índice de Vulnerabilidad Social y el Índice de Presencia Electoral. Los resultados indican que la fuerza local del partido explica los votos a favor de la oposición, mientras que la presencia del Estado, aquellos a favor del gobierno.Palabras clave: elecciones; Brasil; PT y PSDB; serie temporal; análisis geográfico.ABSTRACT: This paper is part of the field of research in geography and electoral representation in Brazil. The goal is to analyze the presidential voting profile of PT and PSDB by municipality, between 1994 and 2014. The hypothesis is that there has been a change in the geographic pattern of voting. The independent variables are GDP per capita, the «Social Vulnerability Index» and the «Electoral Presence Index». The results show that the local party presence explains the votes in opposition and the state's presence, votes in the ruling party.

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Eleição de Dilma ou segunda reeleição de Lula? Uma análise espacial do pleito de 2010

Cited by 14 publications

References 10 publications

Economic voting in Brazilian presidential elections: evidence with panel data from municipalities in São Paulo

Economic voting in Brazilian presidential elections: evidence with panel data from municipalities in São Paulo

Analysing Spatio-Temporal Voting Patterns in Brazilian Elections Through a Simple Data Science Pipeline

Análisis espacial del desempeño electoral de PT y PSDB entre 1994 y 2014 en Brasil

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