Electricity demand in a changing climate

Eskeland, Gunnar S.; Mideksa, Torben K.

doi:10.1007/s11027-010-9246-x

Cited by 88 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Finally, as a discussion point, energy consumption changes due to temperature change might be small compared to those due to other factors, such as changes in income and technology 19 . In addition, the issue of future energy demand due to changes in heating degree days and the number of the heating days is complex and multifaceted and in this paper, we only adopted simple assumptions for the relation between the indices, population distribution and energy demand and did not consider the increase of cooling degree days which might offset the decrease of heating demand under future warming.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The definition of both heating and cooling degree days (HDD and CDD, respectively) involves a temperature threshold, and the threshold used in specific applications varies according to human physiological needs, energy supply, economic level, temperature characteristics and so on. For example, the threshold temperature for HDD and CDD employed are 13 °C and 23 °C in Spain 18 , 18 °C and 22 °C in Europe 19 , and both are 18.33 °C for the United States 20 . The reference temperature used for China also differs among different studies 16,17,21,22 , but 5 °C has been widely used for defining the starting and ending dates of HDD for historical policy reasons (the heating starts (ends) when temperature is below (above) 5 °C for a continuous 5-day period, see next paragraph and Methods for more detail) and 18 °C for calculating the HDD in the heating period.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effects of climate and potential policy changes on heating degree days in current heating areas of China

Shi

Wang

Gao

et al. 2018

Sci Rep

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Based on climate simulations over East Asia from a high-resolution regional climate model under RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, we examine the impact of future climate change and heating policy changes on energy demand in current central heating areas over China using the heating degree days (HDD) and the number of the heating days (NHD) with different base temperature as the indices. Based on current heating policy in China, significant decreases of NHDs are projected, with larger decreases under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5. This decrease of NHDs would cause a northward shift of the decadal heating boundary line, with significant implications for infrastructure planning and development. Changing the heating policy currently in practice to one used in Europe and USA would cause an immediate jump in NHDs and in HDDs; as warming progresses in the future, these effects attenuate with time in an approximately linear trend under the two scenarios. Under RCP8.5, by 2050, the effects of warming climate would dominate over the heating policy change, and heating demand would be lower than the present day HDD and continue to decrease until the end of the century. Energy demand and the number of the heating days during peak winter shows no dependence on heating policy, as the policy-induced increase of energy demand would occur primarily during warmer months of the year. In addition, the indices are further weighted by population, and results show that increases in both HDDs and NHDs can be found in parts of northern China due to the increased population there by the end of the 21st century.

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Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of climate and potential policy changes on heating degree days in current heating areas of China

Shi

Wang

Gao

et al. 2018

Sci Rep

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“…Adaptation responses to offset these negative impacts of climate change will influence electricity consumption and load patterns. While demand for space heating is expected to decrease in response to less-frequent cold days, increased adoption and operation of air conditioning due to growing demand for space cooling during hot days will put upward pressure on electricity consumption as well as daily and seasonal peak loads (14,18,(25)(26)(27)(28)(29).…”

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confidence: 99%

North–south polarization of European electricity consumption under future warming

Wenz

Levermann

Auffhammer

2017

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

124

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There is growing empirical evidence that anthropogenic climate change will substantially affect the electric sector. Impacts will stem both from the supply side-through the mitigation of greenhouse gases-and from the demand side-through adaptive responses to a changing environment. Here we provide evidence of a polarization of both peak load and overall electricity consumption under future warming for the world's third-largest electricity market-the 35 countries of Europe. We statistically estimate country-level dose-response functions between daily peak/total electricity load and ambient temperature for the period 2006-2012. After removing the impact of nontemperature confounders and normalizing the residual load data for each country, we estimate a common dose-response function, which we use to compute national electricity loads for temperatures that lie outside each country's currently observed temperature range. To this end, we impose end-of-century climate on today's European economies following three different greenhouse-gas concentration trajectories, ranging from ambitious climate-change mitigation-in line with the Paris agreement-to unabated climate change. We find significant increases in average daily peak load and overall electricity consumption in southern and western Europe (∼3 to ∼7% for Portugal and Spain) and significant decreases in northern Europe (∼−6 to ∼−2% for Sweden and Norway). While the projected effect on European total consumption is nearly zero, the significant polarization and seasonal shifts in peak demand and consumption have important ramifications for the location of costly peak-generating capacity, transmission infrastructure, and the design of energy-efficiency policy and storage capacity. electricity consumption | peak load | climate change | adaptation C hanges in the Earth's climate stemming from greenhouse-gas emissions (1) will impact natural and human systems worldwide (2, 3). The energy sector uniquely connects to anthropogenic climate change, as it plays an important role in both mitigation and adaptation (4-8). To meet the long-run mitigation targets agreed to at the 21st United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris in 2015, the energy sector must undergo a fundamental transformation toward low-and zero-carbon sources of energy (9, 10). Electricity is anticipated to be a key to decarbonizing the transport sector and it will play a much larger role in space and water heating (9). At the same time, the power sector itself is highly climatesensitive-on both the supply side and the demand side. Energy supply depends on the availability of water to cool power generators and is potentially affected by changing flow regimes for run-of-river hydropower (11). Further, higher temperatures reduce transmission capacity of high-voltage power lines (12), lower the efficiency of some fossil-fuel-powered generators, and depress yields of certain crops used for bioenergy (13). On the demand side, short-term human responses to weather shocks and long-term adaptation to changing cl...

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“…the physiologically-determined level of indoor comfort (conditional on space conditioning) in residential and commercial sectors (Eskeland and Mideksa, 2010), the output of temperature-sensitive production processes (conditional on insulation and operation of thermal regulation equipment) in industrial sectors, or crop yields (conditional on irrigation in response to evapotranspiration) in agriculture. Given information available at time t, the agent selects a sequence of future performance levels, π, that minimize the expectation of discounted performance loss L , specified as a quadratic function of divergence from the target level and inter-period variability: Nickell (1985) shows that with static expectations and a fixed target, when 2 = 0 the solution to (1) reduces to the simple partial adjustment model…”

Section: Res Temperatementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Temperature is the meteorological driver that has been most widely considered, while others that are relevant to the question of climate change (such as precipitation and humidity) have received less attention (Barreca, 2012). Commonly-used approaches estimate elasticities of energy demand with respect to temperatures that are either averaged on an annual (Bigano et al, 2006) or seasonal basis (e.g., De Cian, Lanzi and Roson, 2013), accumulated heating and cooling degree days (e.g., Isaac and Van Vuuren, 2009;Ruth and Lin, 2006;Eskeland and Mideksa, 2010), and, more recently, temporal exposure to different intervals of temperature (e.g., Aroonruengsawat and Auffhammer, 2011;Auffhammer and Aroonruengsawat, 2011;Deschenes and Greenstone, 2013). The last approach, which we adopt here, is particularly attractive because of its ability to capture potential nonlinearity in the responses of demand to temperature extremes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Energy Demand in a Warming Climate

Cian

Wing

2016

SSRN Journal

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This paper combines an econometric analysis of the response of energy demand to temperature and humidity exposure with future scenarios of climate change and socioeconomic development to characterize climate impacts on energy demand at different spatial scales. Globally, future climate change is expected to have a moderate impact on energy demand, in the order of 6-11%, depending on the degree of warming, because of compensating effects across regions, fuels, and sectors. Climate-induced changes in energy demand are disproportionally larger in tropical regions. South America, Asia, and Africa, increase energy demand across all sectors and climate scenarios, while Europe, North America and Oceania exhibit mixed responses, but with consistent reductions in the residential sector. Even so, only Europe and Oceania in the moderate warming scenario experience aggregate reductions in energy use, as commercial electricity use increases significantly. We find that climate change has a regressive impact on energy demand, with the incidence of increased energy demand overwhelmingly falling on low-and middle-income countries, raising the question whether climate change could exacerbate energy poverty.JEL Codes: N5, O13, Q1, Q54

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Electricity demand in a changing climate

Abstract: Adaptation, Climate change, Elasticities, Electricity demand, Europe, Mitigation,

Cited by 88 publications

References 27 publications

Effects of climate and potential policy changes on heating degree days in current heating areas of China

Effects of climate and potential policy changes on heating degree days in current heating areas of China

North–south polarization of European electricity consumption under future warming

Global Energy Demand in a Warming Climate

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