Global Energy Demand in a Warming Climate

Abstract

This paper combines an econometric analysis of the response of energy demand to temperature and humidity exposure with future scenarios of climate change and socioeconomic development to characterize climate impacts on energy demand at different spatial scales. Globally, future climate change is expected to have a moderate impact on energy demand, in the order of 6-11%, depending on the degree of warming, because of compensating effects across regions, fuels, and sectors. Climate-induced changes in energy demand are disproportionally larger in tropical regions. South America, Asia, and Africa, increase energy demand across all sectors and climate scenarios, while Europe, North America and Oceania exhibit mixed responses, but with consistent reductions in the residential sector. Even so, only Europe and Oceania in the moderate warming scenario experience aggregate reductions in energy use, as commercial electricity use increases significantly. We find that climate change has a regressive impact on energy demand, with the incidence of increased energy demand overwhelmingly falling on low-and middle-income countries, raising the question whether climate change could exacerbate energy poverty.JEL Codes: N5, O13, Q1, Q54

Global exposure and vulnerability to multi-sector development and climate change hotspots

“…Integrated assessment and impacts models use physical output variables from General Circulation Models (GCMs) to study specific sectors in more detail, for example in hydrology, land use and vegetation, energy and fisheries. [11,12] GCMs and impacts models are frequently and consistently compared in model inter-comparison exercises, such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) [21] and the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) [22,23]). Growing sectoral coordination means that model performance, results and uncertainty are more easily assessed within sectors, however there have been few multi-sectoral assessments to date [4,24].…”

“…Increasingly studies are showing that the world's poorest are disproportionately exposed to changes in temperature extremes [6,7] and challenging hydro-climatic complexity [8][9][10]. In the water sector, between 8%-14% of the global population are expected to face severe reductions in available water resources between 1.7 • C-2.7 • C [11] and in the energy sector, more than 70% of a 'business as usual' 2050s population could expect climate sensitive changes in energy demand of +/− 5%, with negative impacts overwhelmingly in low and middle income countries [12]. Following ratification of the 2015 Paris Agreement, more work is required to understand the potential range of benefits of a 1.5 • C climate, what higher degrees of warming are projected to entail for different sectors [13] and to what extent people of different vulnerabilities will be impacted.…”

Preparation, Characterization and Experimental Investigation of the Separation Performance of a Novel CaO‐based CO2 Sorbent for Direct Air Capture

“…The greenhouse gas emission is expected to increase by 25-90 % between 2000 and 2030, while the European climate goals define the decrease of greenhouse gas emission until 2030 by 55 % compared to 1990 [13,14]. Meanwhile, the demand for energy is increasing and as a result an alternative technology is needed, which can meet the request of the market and reduce CO 2 emissions at the same time [15]. To reach this goal, carbon capture and storage (CCS) and carbon capture and utilization (CCU) processes are promising technologies to separate CO 2 from gases like flue gas or atmospheric air.…”