Electric vehicle deployment &amp; fossil fuel tax revenue in Mexico to 2050

Bonilla, David; Soberon, Héctor Arias; Galarza, Oscar Ugarteche

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113276

Cited by 17 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…We model the growth rate of the EV share of LDV sales as a symmetrical logistic curve (“S-curve”). Logistic curves are used in a wide range of technology adoption and technology diffusion studies 23 , including for EVs 24 , 25 . We use the same growth rate for each state in the U.S., but with different initial conditions based on 2021 sales (see Methods).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decarbonization potential of electrifying 50% of U.S. light-duty vehicle sales by 2030

Woody,

Keoleian,

Vaishnav

2023

Nat Commun

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The U.S. federal government has established goals of electrifying 50% of new light-duty vehicle sales by 2030 and reducing economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions 50-52% by 2030, from 2005 levels. Here we evaluate the vehicle electrification goal in the context of the economy-wide emissions goal. We use a vehicle fleet model and a life cycle emissions model to project vehicle sales, stock, and emissions. To account for state-level variability in electric vehicle adoption and electric grid emissions factors, we apply the models to each state. By 2030, greenhouse gas emissions are reduced by approximately 25% (from 2005) for the light-duty vehicle fleet, primarily due to fleet turnover of conventional vehicles. By 2035, emissions reductions approach 45% if both vehicle electrification and grid decarbonization goals (100% by 2035) are met. To meet climate goals, the transition to electric vehicles must be accompanied by an accelerated decarbonization of the electric grid and other actions.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decarbonization potential of electrifying 50% of U.S. light-duty vehicle sales by 2030

Woody,

Keoleian,

Vaishnav

2023

Nat Commun

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show abstract

“…Logistic curves are used in a wide range of technology adoption and technology diffusion studies 22 , including for EVs 23,24 . We use the same growth rate for each state in the U.S., but with different initial conditions based on 2021 sales (see Methods).…”

Section: Vehicle Sales Stock and Emissionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decarbonization Potential of Electrifying 50% of U.S. Light-Duty Vehicle Sales by 2030

Woody

Keoleian

Vaishnav

2023

Preprint

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The U.S. federal government has established goals of electrifying 50% of new light-duty vehicle sales by 2030 and reducing economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions 50-52% by 2030, from 2005 levels. Here we evaluate the vehicle electrification goal in the context of the economy-wide emissions goal. A vehicle fleet model and a life cycle emissions model were used to project vehicle sales, stock, and emissions. To account for state-level variability in electric vehicle adoption and electric grid emissions factors, we apply the models to each state. By 2030, GHGs are reduced by approximately 25% (from 2005) for the light-duty vehicle fleet, primarily due to fleet turnover of conventional vehicles. By 2035, emissions reductions approach 45% if both vehicle electrification and grid decarbonization goals (100% by 2035) are met. To meet climate goals, the transition to electric vehicles must be accompanied by an accelerated decarbonization of the electric grid and other actions.

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“…This problem of falling tax revenue is more relevant in developing countries, and specifically in Latin American economies. For example, in the case of Mexico, in Bonilla et al (2022), in a scenario up to 2050, they predict a drop in income of 21.6% per year with the adoption of EVs. On the other hand, in the case of Ecuador, Bedoya Jara, et al (2017) based on a basic principle of environmental taxation: whoever pollutes, pays, the collection effect, has allowed the Government to implement important environmental measures.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Strategic Environmental Policies: Electric vehicles vs Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles

Ramírez

Kayalica

2023

CyA

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In a world collapsed by pollution and environmental degradation, the decision of policies in favour of the environment is affected by the dilemma between economic efficiency and environmental protection. The objective of this article is to analyse this dilemma from the construction of a theoretical two-stage game model in which an environmental tax policy is chosen by government and local firms may produce differentiated vehicles: Electric Vehicles, Hybrid Vehicles, or Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles. At the first stage, the government determines the tax level on pollution taking the firms' output levels as given. At the second stage, firms, competing in an oligopolistic market, choose their output and emission levels observing the tax level set by the government. It is found that a high perception of pollution damage encourages the setting of a pollution tax despite the fall in the consumer surplus and the profits of Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles producers; this policy encourages the production of Electric Vehicles and Hybrid Vehicles. Otherwise, the government is not willing to set a severe pollution policy. This work is relevant because the level of environmental policy can be determined from the perception that people have about the environmental damage caused by the production of cars.

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Electric vehicle deployment & fossil fuel tax revenue in Mexico to 2050

Cited by 17 publications

References 6 publications

Decarbonization potential of electrifying 50% of U.S. light-duty vehicle sales by 2030

Decarbonization potential of electrifying 50% of U.S. light-duty vehicle sales by 2030

Decarbonization Potential of Electrifying 50% of U.S. Light-Duty Vehicle Sales by 2030

Strategic Environmental Policies: Electric vehicles vs Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles

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