Electoral Preferences Among Multiethnic Voters in Africa

Abstract

Intermarriage is transforming Africa’s ethnic landscape. In several countries on the continent more than a fifth of all marriages now cut across ethnic lines. As a result, there is a growing population of multiethnic citizens who descend from diverse family lineages. The growth of Africa’s mixed population has the potential to affect politics in a variety of potentially far-reaching ways. In this article, we focus on one possible implication by examining the electoral preferences of multiethnic voters in contexts where ethnic bloc voting is commonplace. Drawing on survey data from Malawi and Kenya, we find that mixed individuals are less likely to support the party associated with their stated ethnic group, relative to mono-ethnics. We outline several possible explanations related to identity measurement, the link between identities and preferences, and social networks.

Explaining inter‐ethnic marriage in Sub‐Saharan Africa

“…Finally, tracking data on the children of inter‐marriages could allow for better understanding of how such children identify ethnically once they become adults, which would greatly add to our understanding of how inter‐marriages can affect ethnic demography across time. Indeed, preliminary analysis from Dulani, Harris, Horowitz, and Kayuni (2020) drawing from survey data in Kenya and Malawi suggests that children of inter‐ethnic marriages are less likely to engage in ethnic voting, which suggests that inter‐ethnic marriage can have important political implications as well. Similarily, Le Bas (2017)'s examination of the effect of inter‐ethnic marriage on trust in local officials in Nigeria could be replicated elsewhere.…”

A perfect match? The dampening effect of interethnic marriage on armed conflict in Africa

“…Second, although most sub-Saharan African marriages are within ethnic boundaries, interethnic marriage in this region has a long history (Matz, 2013). Recent examinations of interethnic marriage have shown that rates are around 20% on average and rising across Africa over the past 30 years (Bandyopadhyay and Green, 2018; Crespin-Boucaud, 2020; Dulani et al, 2021). 5 Third, given that ethnic diversity is perceived to be especially problematic and because scarcity increases the stakes of resource competition on this continent, examining the effect of interethnic marriage in this region provides for a harder test (Bandyopadhyay and Green, 2018; Kasara, 2013; Robinson, 2020).…”

“…Bandyopadhyay and Green, 2018; Wagner and Hewstone, 2012). They have largely ignored continents, such as Africa, where ethnic diversity is perceived to be especially problematic (Bandyopadhyay and Green, 2018; Dulani et al, 2021). Lastly, since ethnic conflicts are especially long, deadly, and have devastating social and economic consequences (Sambanis and Shayo, 2013), it is important to examine contact as a powerful condition for stability.…”

African exceptions: democratic development in small island states

“…The continent includes some of the most ethno-linguistically diverse societies in the world, while countries such as Nigeria feature over one hundred self-identified groups. Taken together with evidence that many-though far from all-citizens vote along ethnic lines (Bratton et al 2012;Dulani et al 2021), and that ethnic identity has played a significant role in some of Africa's most destructive wars (Abbay 2004;Chakravarty 2014), it makes sense that many scholars have worried that the strength of sub-national identities undermines the prospects for political stability and the provision of public goods.…”