Elasticidades de Armington para o Brasil: 1986-2002

Abstract

Palavras-chave: elasticidade de Armington; importação; proteção. Códigos JEL: F13 Estimamos a elasticidade de Armington para os 28 setores industriais da matriz insumo-produto brasileira, no período 1986-2002. A metodologia empregada leva em conta as propriedades estocásticas das séries de dados e os efeitos da liberalização do comercio exterior brasileiro ocorrida em 1990. Obtemos elasticidades significativamente diferentes de zero para 24 setores, cujos valores estimados se situam no intervalo de 0,2 a 3,6 e uma média ponderada de 0,9. Para três setores a elasticidade estimada não é significativamente diferente de zero e para um setor encontramos uma elasticidade significativa, porém com sinal incorreto. We estimate the Armington elasticity for the 28 industrial sectors of the Brazilian input-output

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“…The sample period for our study is 1986-2002, and the estimation is done separately for each of the 28 industrial sectors specified in the Brazilian input-output table. Special consideration is given to the fact that the data is affected by import restrictions for part of that period, and that foreign trade liberalization 1 This is an English language version of Tourinho, Kume and Pedroso (2007 …”

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“…Thus, such elasticities would take into account the changes in the relative prices, attributable to tariff changes. The data was achieved from the paper of Tourinho, Kume, and Pedroso (2002);…”

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“…The sample period for our study is 1986-2002, and the estimation is done separately for each of the 28 industrial sectors specified in the Brazilian input-output table. Special consideration is given to the fact that the data is affected by import restrictions for part of that period, and that foreign trade liberalization 1 This is an English language version of Tourinho, Kume and Pedroso (2007 extrapolated by examining a linear approximation for the expression that defines θ i . This is given by equation (13), which is obtained by expanding equation (9) in a Taylor series with respect to a i , τ i ∈ [0,1] in the neighbourhood of the origin.…”