Elaborating a systems methodology for cascading climate change impacts and implications

Cradock-Henry, Nicholas A.; Connolly, Justin; Blackett, Paula; Lawrence, Judy

doi:10.1016/j.mex.2020.100893

Cited by 32 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…For example, participatory approaches that use expert elicitation and visualize cascading risks as causal diagrams can provide a robust and flexible analytical framework for interacting risks and implications for management. 121 For insurers, this would include fundamental shifts in ways of doing business to include iteratively revised understandings of the probabilities of extreme events. 30 Dynamic adaptive pathways can be employed to help planning and guide responses under deep uncertainty.…”

Section: Fishing Communities In the Tropicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A framework for complex climate change risk assessment

et al. 2021

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Section: Fishing Communities In the Tropicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A framework for complex climate change risk assessment

et al. 2021

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“…A significant challenge for adaptation and risk management in the face of growing uncertainty and change is understanding the potential for more intensive widespread cascading impacts of multi-hazard events [16][17][18][19][20]. Climate change acts as a risk multiplier 2 of 18 in complex systems, defying easy or definitive resolution [21][22][23] and, consequently, studies to date have focused on impacts to built assets in urban environments [24].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flood Impacts on Dairy Farms in the Bay of Plenty Region, New Zealand

Paulik

Crowley

Cradock-Henry

et al. 2021

Climate

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Flood damage assessments provide critical information for flood hazard mitigation under changing climate conditions. Recent efforts to improve and systemise damage assessments have focused primarily on urban environments with few examples for primary industries such as dairy. This paper explores the adverse consequences of flooding on dairy farms in the Bay of Plenty region, New Zealand. Ex-tropical Cyclone Debbie in April 2017 caused prolonged riverine and surface water flooding on over 3500 hectares of dairy farmland. The event provided an opportunity to develop and apply a participatory approach for collecting information about on-farm flood damage, and both response and recovery actions implemented by dairy farmers. Semi-structured interviews and transect walks with farmers revealed a range of direct and indirect damages to production and capital assets, influenced by duration of inundation, silt deposition and seasonality. Results highlight the need to identify on-farm and off-farm asset interdependencies of dairy farm systems to estimate long-term socio-economic consequences at farm-level. Enhancing dairy farm flood resilience in a changing climate will rely on farm-level response and recovery plans, proactively supported by emergency management agencies, farm service suppliers and support agencies.

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“…Adaptation to location-and context-specific impacts of climate change, however, is local and regional. Developing a collective understanding of shared risks and opportunities, how these interact, and potentially cascade between systems can provide insight into the need for joint responsibility for adaptation (Cradock-Henry et al, 2020b). Enhancing flood protection measures, for example, may require substantial investment with benefits accruing to diverse stakeholders (Lawrence et al, 2020).…”

Section: Principlesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The capacity for identifying, evaluating, and comparing adaptation options can be limited by poor integration of social and economic studies with biophysical impact assessments and an emphasis on individuals' adaptive strategies. Consequently, systems dynamics modeling (either qualitative diagrams or quantitative simulation modeling) can be used to bring together insights sourced from the stakeholder workshops and present them in an accessible and relevant manner to multiple audiences (Lieffering et al, 2016;Gray et al, 2018;Cradock-Henry et al, 2020b). The value of using systems thinking is that system boundaries are flexible and can be set at a scale that is appropriate to the question of interest.…”

Section: Toolsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Principles and process for developing participatory adaptation pathways in the primary industries

Cradock-Henry

Blackett

Connolly³

et al. 2021

Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene

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Adaptation pathways is an approach to identify, assess, and sequence climate change adaptation options over time, linking decisions to critical signals and triggers derived from scenarios of future conditions. However, conceptual differences in their development can hinder methodological advance and create a disconnect between those applying pathways approaches and the wider community of practitioners undertaking vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation assessments. Here, we contribute to close these gaps, advancing principles, and processes that may be used to guide the trajectory for adaptation pathways, without having to rely on data-rich or resource-intensive methods. To achieve this, concepts and practices from the broad pathways literature is combined with our own experience in developing adaptation pathways for primary industries facing the combined impacts of climate change and other, nonclimatic stressors. Each stage is guided by a goal and tools to facilitate discussions and produce feasible pathways. We illustrate the process with a case study from Hawke’s Bay, New Zealand, involving multiple data sources and methods in two catchments. Resulting guidelines and empirical examples are consistent with principles of adaptive management and planning and can provide a template for developing local-, regional- or issue-specific pathways elsewhere and enrich the diversity of vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation assessment practice.

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Elaborating a systems methodology for cascading climate change impacts and implications

Cited by 32 publications

References 44 publications

A framework for complex climate change risk assessment

A framework for complex climate change risk assessment

Flood Impacts on Dairy Farms in the Bay of Plenty Region, New Zealand

Principles and process for developing participatory adaptation pathways in the primary industries

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