A framework for complex climate change risk assessment

Simpson, Nicholas P.; Mach, Katharine J.; Constable, Andrew J.; Hess, Jeremy; Hogarth, Ryan; Howden, Mark; Lawrence, Judy; Lempert, Robert J.; Muccione, Veruska; Mackey, Brendan; New, Mark; O’Neill, Brian C.; Otto, Friederike E. L.; Pörtner, Hans O.; Reisinger, Andy; Roberts, Debra; Schmidt, Daniela N.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Strongin, Steven; Aalst, Maarten van; Totin, Edmond; Trisos, Christopher H.

doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2021.03.005

Cited by 283 publications

(158 citation statements)

References 100 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

155

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…lagoon fishery, coastal fishery, farmers or eco-tourism). It also highlighted the underpinning role of the ecosystem in the interactions between environmental and climatic risks and coping responses (Elwell et al 2018), and an understanding that multiple environmental and social risks need to be managed coherently to reduce vulnerability (Simpson et al 2021). However, the complex pathways, feedbacks and trade-offs present significant challenges for local communities in terms of how to respond to reduce both shortand long-term vulnerabilities.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…floods) and sectors (e.g. farmers, fishers, urban settlements), and to reflect only a specific moment of time (Ran et al 2020), the ability of these studies to integrate the interdependencies and feedbacks among environmental, climatic and social drivers of exposure and vulnerability is limited (Simpson et al 2021). This means that they may fail to inform decision makers on coherent adaptation responses to multiple hazards because the influence of these interactions on behavioural responses, as trajectories of change, is not accounted for when determining overall vulnerability (Li and Ford 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Coping and Adaptation in Response to Environmental and Climatic Stressors in Caribbean Coastal Communities

Touza

Lacambra²,

Kiss

et al. 2021

Environmental Management

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Cumulative and synergistic impacts from environmental pressures, particularly in low-lying tropical coastal regions, present challenges for the governance of ecosystems, which provide natural resource-based livelihoods for communities. Here, we seek to understand the relationship between responses to the impacts of El Niño and La Niña events and the vulnerability of mangrove-dependent communities in the Caribbean region of Colombia. Using two case study sites, we show how communities are impacted by, and undertake reactive short-term responses to, El Niño and La Niña events, and how such responses can affect their adaptive capacity to progressive environmental deterioration. We show that certain coping measures to climate variability currently deliver maladaptive outcomes, resulting in circumstances that could contribute to system ‘lock-in’ and engender undesirable ecological states, exacerbating future livelihood vulnerabilities. We highlight the significant role of social barriers on vulnerabilities within the region, including perceptions of state abandonment, mistrust and conflicts with authorities. Opportunities to reduce vulnerability include enhancing the communities’ capacity to adopt more positive and preventative responses based on demonstrable experiential learning capacity. However, these will require close cooperation between formal and informal organisations at different levels, and the development of shared coherent adaptation strategies to manage the complexity of multiple interacting environmental and climatic pressures.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coping and Adaptation in Response to Environmental and Climatic Stressors in Caribbean Coastal Communities

Touza

Lacambra²,

Kiss

et al. 2021

Environmental Management

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In addition to the direct effects of climate on agriculture and commodity chain disruption there are of course second-order effects as a result of climate policies undertaken by numerous states (Simpson et al 2021).…”

Section: Territories Jurisdictions Sovereigntiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…What has not been integrated into the discussion frequently, even in the field of international relations (Burke et al 2016, Simangan 2020), is the simple but profound fact that all these processes of globalization, the extraction of resources, the building of trading systems and the extension of mass consumption, involve dramatic material transformations of the planet. These transformations are destabilizing the climate system and introducing increasingly severe perturbations in how numerous ecological systems function, while dramatically enhancing the risks to these new global economic activities and the humans dependent on them for subsistence (Simpson et al 2021). This new contextualization reveals numerous contradictions in terms of how borders and boundaries now function and, highlighted by the urgency of dealing with both climate change and the accelerating extinction crisis, requires a reconsideration of borders and bordering practices in light of the novel material circumstances that globalization has made (Dalby 2020).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Unsustainable Borders: Globalization in a Climate-Disrupted World

Dalby¹

2021

BIG_Review

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Climate change and the responses to it reveal starkly different assumptions about borders, security and the ethical communities for whom politicians and activists speak. Starting with the contrasting perspectives of international activist Greta Thunberg and United States President Donald Trump on climate change this essay highlights the diverse political assumptions implicit in debates about contemporary globalization. Rapidly rising greenhouse gas emissions and increasingly severe climate change impacts and accelerating extinctions are the new context for scholarly work in the Anthropocene. Incorporating insights from earth system sciences and the emerging perspectives of planetary politics suggests a novel contextualization for contemporary social science which now needs to take non-stationarity and mobility as the appropriate context for investigating contemporary transformations. The challenge for social scientists and borders scholars is to think through how to link politics, ethics and bordering practices in ways that facilitate sustainability, while taking seriously the urgency of dealing with the rapidly changing material context that globalization has wrought.

show abstract

“…The multi-scale and systemic nature of climate risk requires greater consideration of the ways in which responses to climate impacts and anticipated risks can be affected and influenced by conditions at the global, regional, and national scales (Simpson et al, 2021). The parallel scenario framework is a sophisticated, global-scale architecture involving representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of greenhouse gas emissions, shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs), and shared policy assumptions (SPAs) (Ebi et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Advancing Relevance, Credibility, Legitimacy, and Effectiveness as a Heuristic for Local-Parallel Scenarios

Cradock-Henry¹,

Frame²

2021

Front. Clim.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The parallel scenario process provides a framework for developing plausible scenarios of future conditions. Combining greenhouse gas emissions, social and economic trends, and policy responses, it enables researchers and policy makers to consider global-scale interactions, impacts and implications of climate change. Increasingly, researchers are developing extended scenarios, based on this framework, and incorporating them into adaptation planning and decision-making processes at the local level. To enable the identification of possible impacts and assess vulnerability, these local-parallel scenarios must successfully accommodate diverse knowledge systems, multiple values, and competing priorities including both “top down” modeling and “bottom-up” participatory processes. They must link across scales, to account for the ways in which global changes affect and influence decision-making in local places. Due to the growing use of scenarios, there is value in assessing these developments using criteria or, more specifically, heuristics that may be implicitly acknowledged rather than formally monitored and evaluated. In this Perspective, we reflect on various contributions regarding the value of heuristics and propose the adoption of current definitions for Relevance, Credibility, and Legitimacy for guiding local scenario development as the most useful as well as using Effectiveness for evaluation purposes. We summarize the internal trade-offs (personal time, clarity-complexity, speed-quality, push-pull) and the external stressors (equity and the role of science in society) that influence the extent to which heuristics are used as “rules of thumb,” rather than formal assessment. These heuristics may help refine the process of extending the parallel scenario framework to the local and enable cross-case comparisons.

show abstract

A framework for complex climate change risk assessment

Cited by 283 publications

References 100 publications

Coping and Adaptation in Response to Environmental and Climatic Stressors in Caribbean Coastal Communities

Coping and Adaptation in Response to Environmental and Climatic Stressors in Caribbean Coastal Communities

Unsustainable Borders: Globalization in a Climate-Disrupted World

Advancing Relevance, Credibility, Legitimacy, and Effectiveness as a Heuristic for Local-Parallel Scenarios

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About