El Niño and prediction of anomalous monthly rainfalls in Ecuador

Rossel, Frédéric; Cadier, Éric

doi:10.1002/hyp.7401

Cited by 46 publications

(59 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…The use of seasonal climate forecasts is promising given that Ecuador is located in a region of the world where seasonal forecasts show some skill (accuracy) because of the strong influence of ENSO events in the region. 55,56 Forecasting centers such as the ECMWF produce such forecasts with lead times up to 6 months. However, the greater the forecast lead time, the greater the uncertainty in the predictions of both the climate and the disease.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate and Non-Climate Drivers of Dengue Epidemics in Southern Coastal Ecuador

Stewart-Ibarra¹,

Lowe²

2013

The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

138

162

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Abstract. We report a statistical mixed model for assessing the importance of climate and non-climate drivers of interannual variability in dengue fever in southern coastal Ecuador. Local climate data and Pacific sea surface temperatures (Oceanic Niñ o Index [ONI]) were used to predict dengue standardized morbidity ratios (SMRs;1995-2010. Unobserved confounding factors were accounted for using non-structured yearly random effects. We found that ONI, rainfall, and minimum temperature were positively associated with dengue, with more cases of dengue during El Niñ o events. We assessed the influence of non-climatic factors on dengue SMR using a subset of data (2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010) and found that the percent of households with Aedes aegypti immatures was also a significant predictor. Our results indicate that monitoring the climate and non-climate drivers identified in this study could provide some predictive lead for forecasting dengue epidemics, showing the potential to develop a dengue early-warning system in this region.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate and Non-Climate Drivers of Dengue Epidemics in Southern Coastal Ecuador

Stewart-Ibarra¹,

Lowe²

2013

The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

138

162

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“…The latter mainly defines the rainy season. Inversely, the northernmost ITCZ displacement and the equatorial front result in the presence of cooler and dryer air masses descending from upwelling regions in the southwest, influencing the dry season (Rossel and Cadier, 2009).…”

Section: Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The PAEP region is bounded by the limit of the strong ENSO influence defined by Rossel et al (1999) as the region where the increase in mean annual precipitation is greater than 40 %. Therefore, in ENSO years abrupt changes in the mean annual rainfall conditions are considerable, with a coefficient of variation reaching 0.40 (Rossel and Cadier, 2009). Such increase is not uniform region wide; there are important regional differences in heavy rainfall formation during El Niño (EN) events and the EN influence on rainfall variability may change substantially in short distances in the same Pacific-Andean hydrological unit (Pineda et al, 2013).…”

Section: Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is based on the integration of a Box-Cox power transformation into a common trend two-phase regression model suitable for non-Gaussian series such as non-zero daily precipitation (Wang et al, 2010). Documented changes (EN driven) are referred as those defined by Rossel and Cadier (2009) and are the sequence of at least 3 consecutive months where the monthly SST anomalies are above …”

Section: Rain Gauge Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evaluation of TRMM 3B42 precipitation estimates and WRF retrospective precipitation simulation over the Pacific–Andean region of Ecuador and Peru

Ochoa

Pineda

Crespo

et al. 2014

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

101

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Abstract. The Pacific-Andean region in western South America suffers from rainfall data scarcity, as is the case for many regions in the South. An important research question is whether the latest satellite-based and numerical weather prediction (NWP) model outputs capture well the temporal and spatial patterns of rainfall over the region, and hence have the potential to compensate for the data scarcity. Based on an interpolated gauge-based rainfall data set, the performance of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 V7 and its predecessor V6, and the North Western South America Retrospective Simulation (OA-NOSA30) are evaluated over 21 sub-catchments in the Pacific-Andean region of Ecuador and Peru (PAEP).In general, precipitation estimates from TRMM and OA-NOSA30 capture the seasonal features of precipitation in the study area. Quantitatively, only the southern sub-catchments of Ecuador and northern Peru (3.6-6 • S) are relatively well estimated by both products. The accuracy is considerably less in the northern and central basins of Ecuador (0-3.6 • S). It is shown that the probability of detection (POD) is better for light precipitation (POD decreases from 0.6 for rates less than 5 mm day −1 to 0.2 for rates higher than 20 mm day −1 ). Compared to its predecessor, 3B42 V7 shows modest regionwide improvements in reducing biases. The improvement is specific to the coastal and open ocean sub-catchments. In view of hydrological applications, the correlation of TRMM and OA-NOSA30 estimates with observations increases with time aggregation. The correlation is higher for the monthly time aggregation in comparison with the daily, weekly, and 15-day time scales. Furthermore, it is found that TRMM performs better than OA-NOSA30 in generating the spatial distribution of mean annual precipitation.

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“…4). This difference is due to the spatially homogenous rainfall distribution, rainfall amounts increasing with elevation (Buytaert et al 2006, Galeas and Melo 2007, Rossel and Cadier 2009, whereas SAN has a spatially heterogeneous rainfall distribution that has no relationship with altitude (Laraque et al 2007, Espinoza et al 2009) (Fig. 1).…”

Section: Hydrologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Yields of suspended sediment and dissolved solids from the Andean basins of Ecuador

Armijos

Laraque

Barba

et al. 2013

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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Water discharge and suspended and dissolved sediment data from three rivers (Napo, Pastaza and Santiago) in the Ecuadorian Amazon basin and a river in the Pacific basin (Esmeraldas) over a 9-year period, are presented. This data set allows us to present: (a) the chemical weathering rates; (b) the erosion rates, calculated from the suspended sediment from the Andean basin; (c) the spatio-temporal variability of the two regions; and (d) the relationship between this variability and the precipitation, topography, lithology and seismic activity of the area. The dissolved solids load from the Esmeraldas basin was 2 × 10 6 t year -1 , whereas for the Napo, Pastaza and Santiago basins, it was 4, 2 and 3 × 10 6 t year -1 , respectively. For stations in the Andean piedmont of Ecuador, the relationship between surface sediment and the total sediment concentration was found to be close to one. This is due to minimal stratification of the suspended sediment in the vertical profile, which is attributed to turbulence and high vertical water speeds. However, during the dry season, when the water speed decreases, sediment stratification appears, but this effect can be neglected in the sediment flux calculations due to low concentration rates. The suspended sediment load in the Pacific basin was 6 × 10 6 t year -1 , and the total for the three Amazon basins was 47 × 10 6 t year -1 . The difference between these contributions of the suspended sediment load is likely due to the tectonic uplift and the seismic and volcanic dynamics that occur on the Amazon side.

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El Niño and prediction of anomalous monthly rainfalls in Ecuador

Cited by 46 publications

References 20 publications

Climate and Non-Climate Drivers of Dengue Epidemics in Southern Coastal Ecuador

Climate and Non-Climate Drivers of Dengue Epidemics in Southern Coastal Ecuador

Evaluation of TRMM 3B42 precipitation estimates and WRF retrospective precipitation simulation over the Pacific–Andean region of Ecuador and Peru

Yields of suspended sediment and dissolved solids from the Andean basins of Ecuador

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