Effects of weather-related social distancing on city-scale transmission of respiratory viruses

Jackson, Michael L.; Hart, Gregory R.; McCulloch, Denise J.; Adler, Amanda I; Brandstetter, Elisabeth; Fay, Kairsten; Han, Peter D.; Lacombe, Kirsten; Lee, Jover; Sibley, Thomas H.; Nickerson, Deborah A.; Rieder, Mark J.; Englund, Janet A.; Bedford, Trevor

doi:10.1101/2020.03.02.20027599

Cited by 10 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…Resuming schools, on the other hand, may increase COVID-19 transmission risks for both students and teachers. Our findings are consistent with much existing literature-although school closures cannot single-handedly suppress an outbreak, they are generally effective in terms of reducing transmission [49,50].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission across 130 countries and territories

Liu

Morgenstern²,

Kelly³

et al. 2021

BMC Med

296

229

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Background Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are used to reduce transmission of SARS coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, empirical evidence of the effectiveness of specific NPIs has been inconsistent. We assessed the effectiveness of NPIs around internal containment and closure, international travel restrictions, economic measures, and health system actions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in 130 countries and territories. Methods We used panel (longitudinal) regression to estimate the effectiveness of 13 categories of NPIs in reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission using data from January to June 2020. First, we examined the temporal association between NPIs using hierarchical cluster analyses. We then regressed the time-varying reproduction number (Rt) of COVID-19 against different NPIs. We examined different model specifications to account for the temporal lag between NPIs and changes in Rt, levels of NPI intensity, time-varying changes in NPI effect, and variable selection criteria. Results were interpreted taking into account both the range of model specifications and temporal clustering of NPIs. Results There was strong evidence for an association between two NPIs (school closure, internal movement restrictions) and reduced Rt. Another three NPIs (workplace closure, income support, and debt/contract relief) had strong evidence of effectiveness when ignoring their level of intensity, while two NPIs (public events cancellation, restriction on gatherings) had strong evidence of their effectiveness only when evaluating their implementation at maximum capacity (e.g. restrictions on 1000+ people gathering were not effective, restrictions on < 10 people gathering were). Evidence about the effectiveness of the remaining NPIs (stay-at-home requirements, public information campaigns, public transport closure, international travel controls, testing, contact tracing) was inconsistent and inconclusive. We found temporal clustering between many of the NPIs. Effect sizes varied depending on whether or not we included data after peak NPI intensity. Conclusion Understanding the impact that specific NPIs have had on SARS-CoV-2 transmission is complicated by temporal clustering, time-dependent variation in effects, and differences in NPI intensity. However, the effectiveness of school closure and internal movement restrictions appears robust across different model specifications, with some evidence that other NPIs may also be effective under particular conditions. This provides empirical evidence for the potential effectiveness of many, although not all, actions policy-makers are taking to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission across 130 countries and territories

Liu

Morgenstern²,

Kelly³

et al. 2021

BMC Med

296

229

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Resuming schools, on the other hand, may increase COVID-19 transmission risks for both students and teachers. Our findings are consistent with much existing literature - although school closures cannot single-handedly suppress an outbreak, they are generally effective in terms of reducing transmission (25,26).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission across 130 countries and territories

Liu

Morgenstern²,

Kelly³

et al. 2020

Preprint

132

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Introduction: Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are used to reduce transmission of SARS coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, empirical evidence of the effectiveness of specific NPIs has been inconsistent. We assessed the effectiveness of NPIs around internal containment and closure, international travel restrictions, economic measures, and health system actions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in 130 countries and territories. Methods: We used panel (longitudinal) regression to estimate the effectiveness of 13 categories of NPIs in reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission with data from January - June 2020. First, we examined the temporal association between NPIs using hierarchical cluster analyses. We then regressed the time-varying reproduction number (Rt) of COVID-19 against different NPIs. We examined different model specifications to account for the temporal lag between NPIs and changes in Rt, levels of NPI intensity, time-varying changes in NPI effect and variable selection criteria. Results were interpreted taking into account both the range of model specifications and temporal clustering of NPIs. Results: There was strong evidence for an association between two NPIs (school closure, internal movement restrictions) and reduced Rt. Another three NPIs (workplace closure, income support and debt/contract relief) had strong evidence of effectiveness when ignoring their level of intensity, while two NPIs (public events cancellation, restriction on gatherings) had strong evidence of their effectiveness only when evaluating their implementation at maximum capacity (e.g., restrictions on 1000+ people gathering were not effective, restrictions on <10 people gathering was). Evidence supporting the effectiveness of the remaining NPIs (stay-at-home requirements, public information campaigns, public transport closure, international travel controls, testing, contact tracing) was inconsistent and inconclusive. We found temporal clustering between many of the NPIs. Conclusion: Understanding the impact that specific NPIs have had on SARS-CoV-2 transmission is complicated by temporal clustering, time-dependent variation in effects and differences in NPI intensity. However, the effectiveness of school closure and internal movement restrictions appears robust across different model specifications taking into account these effects, with some evidence that other NPIs may also be effective under particular conditions. This provides empirical evidence for the potential effectiveness of many although not all the actions policy-makers are taking to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

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“…This situation is complicated by the number of infected people with Covid-19 so the pandemic period is not over, yet. [11], [12] stated that the situation of the pandemic will get worse if there are no social restrictions, so learning at university has to be arranged in an online system. Meanwhile, online learning still needs to be adjusted [13], so it can be carried out effectively by university students.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Students’ Statements on Utilization of Learning Media during Online Learning in the Covid-19 Pandemic in Indonesia

Trisnawati¹,

Pahlevi²,

Rosy³

et al. 2021

SAR Journal

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The purpose of this study is to reveal students’ perspective of the online learning media during the Covid-19 pandemic. This study is conducted in the University Negeri Surabaya with 118 respondents. A questioner used a Likert scale that can reflect the students’ perception on difficulties of media, attractiveness of media, convenience of media, easiness of material understanding, and satisfaction of media. This study shows that the tendency of lecturers to carry out online learning in the Covid-19 pandemic era is achieved through assignments and online meetings. Also, students’ assessments of online learning media used in this study fall into the good category, so the chosen online learning media are suitable for use in learning. This study implies that learning media combination is needed during the Covid-19 pandemic since not every student can effectively learn by the online system.

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Effects of weather-related social distancing on city-scale transmission of respiratory viruses

Cited by 10 publications

References 25 publications

The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission across 130 countries and territories

The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission across 130 countries and territories

The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission across 130 countries and territories

Students’ Statements on Utilization of Learning Media during Online Learning in the Covid-19 Pandemic in Indonesia

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