Effects of spatial planning on future flood risks in urban environments

Mustafà, Ahmed; Bruwier, Martin; Archambeau, Pierre; Erpicum, Sébastien; Pirotton, Michel; Dewals, Benjamin; Teller, Jacques

doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.07.090

Cited by 125 publications

(82 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…Fast, raster-based urban development models instead provide information about the building area inside a pixel or the land- use mix inside a pixel, which, through an assumed building density, can be translated into building area. Typically, these models operate with raster resolutions on the order of 100 to 200 m Fuglsang et al, 2013;Mustafa et al, 2018). Such coarse input data will affect rainfall-runoff simulations, i.e., the location where flood hazards occur, and are likely to be incompatible with flood damage assessments derived from polygon data.…”

Section: Study Area and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In these assessments, model simulations of the urban layout are linked to water systems models (Urich and Rauch, 2014), and the combined impact of climate change, represented as changing forcing in the water systems model, and changes in exposure, represented by varying simulated urban layouts, is assessed. For example, Löwe et al (2017Löwe et al ( , 2018 linked a vector-based urban development model to a 1D-2D hydraulic model of the urban catchment to assess pluvial and coastal flood risk, while Mustafa et al (2018) implemented a similar setup for fluvial flood risk, considering a cellular automata model for urban development and 2D hydraulic simulations. Other studies have applied cellular automata to study the effect of urbanization on extreme rainfall and resulting flood risk (Huong and Pathirana, 2013) and to quantify changes in coastal flood areas as a result of urbanization (Sekovski et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Raster-based implementations for modeling urban development, such as the ones used by Mustafa et al (2018) and Bach et al (2018), have the advantage of short simulation times. Such models can be combined into a flood risk screening setup together with fast flood simulation tools, i.e., a setup which allows for a fast evaluation of flood risk with limited accuracy.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Urban pluvial flood risk assessment – data resolution and spatial scale when developing screening approaches on the microscale

Löwe

Arnbjerg‐Nielsen

2020

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Urban development models typically provide simulated building areas in an aggregated form. When using such outputs to parametrize pluvial flood risk simulations in an urban setting, we need to identify ways to characterize imperviousness and flood exposure. We develop data-driven approaches for establishing this link, and we focus on the data resolutions and spatial scales that should be considered. We use regression models linking aggregated building areas to total imperviousness and models that link aggregated building areas and simulated flood areas to flood damage. The data resolutions used for training regression models are demonstrated to have a strong impact on identifiability, with too fine data resolutions preventing the identification of the link between building areas and hydrology and too coarse resolutions leading to uncertain parameter estimates. The optimal data resolution for modeling imperviousness was identified to be 400 m in our case study, while an aggregation of the data to at least 1000 m resolution is required when modeling flood damage. In addition, regression models for flood damage are more robust when considering building data with coarser resolutions of 200 m than with finer resolutions. The results suggest that aggregated building data can be used to derive realistic estimations of flood risk in screening simulations.

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Section: Study Area and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Urban pluvial flood risk assessment – data resolution and spatial scale when developing screening approaches on the microscale

Löwe

Arnbjerg‐Nielsen

2020

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…The first is the natural ability of the watershed to generate floods from precipitation deposited over the watershed area. The second is related to human activity related to the use of water and lands located along the rivers and streams [5][6][7][8][9]. It has been suggested that increasing industrialization reinforces climate change at the local and global scale.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Possibilities of Controlling the River Outlets by Weirs on the Example of Noteć Bystra River

et al. 2020

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The possibility of effective control of selected dams in the Noteć Bystra river is analyzed. Such a control is expected to permit inundation of selected arable areas, e.g., peat grasslands, to avoid flooding of the city of Czarnków and the terrains located downstream. The chosen case study is the reach of the Noteć River between the dams Pianowka-Mikolajewo-Rosko. The analysis was made on the basis of simulations of the flow and regulation of dams in flood conditions. The flow peaks of hypothetical flood waves were designed according to the directions of the ISOK project (Informatyczny System Osłony Kraju przed nadzwyczajnymi zagrożeniami-IT System of the Country's Protection Against Extreme Hazards) as the maximum flows over 10-years (p = 10%), 100-years (p = 1%), and 500-years (p = 0.2%). The obtained results are presented as longitudinal profiles of the water surface, maps of inundated areas and maps of inundated soils. The main conclusion is that the robust control of dams reduces the peak of flow during flood wave propagation and forces inundation of the a priori selected areas. It helps to decrease the spatial range of the flood hazard and significantly reduces risk related to floods.Sustainability 2020, 12, 2369 2 of 20 reduce flood consequences [21,22]. Efficient decision support systems should permit analysis of weather forecasts as well as analysis of watershed outflow generation. Such a system should support determination of reservoir decision rules on the basis of all available information including reservoir capacity and current amount of water stored [23,24].The impacts of climate change on hydrological alteration such as floods and drought pose a significant threat to floodplain environments [25][26][27]. Integrated water resources management (IWRM) is a practical approach which promotes responsible development and management of water and land resources considering the main parts of sustainability, i.e., economy, equity, and environment [28,29]. Adaptation of existing water infrastructure to climate change is becoming an important strategy for water management in floodplain areas. Karpack et al. [30] have suggested that humans have impacted on floodplain functionality by changing the physical landscape of floodplains and by altering river flows. A generally accepted solution used for flood protection is construction of reservoirs [31,32]. This study shows that the water infrastructure (weirs and dams) located in rivers could also be effectively used for water management including flood protection as well as for regulation and control of seasonal inundation at floodplain areas. Similar results have been obtained by Contreras et al. [33], who have shown that river flood manipulations by weirs and sluice gates provide water for agricultural activity without costly infrastructural and technical investigations.Analysis of flood risk has become very important and is the basis for the EU Flood Directive that started to take effect from November 26th, 2007 [34]. The Directive obliges Poland as well as othe...

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“…As instabilidades atmosféricas severas geram grandes volumes de chuva em pouco tempo, e junto a isso, a baixa drenagem dos espaços urbanos e a ocupação de áreas inadequadas são os responsáveis por tais eventos. Trabalhos que identifiquem a frequência e intensidade desses eventos extremos auxiliam na tomada de decisão e no planejamento urbano regional (BERTILSSON et al, 2018;HUANG et al, 2018;JAMALI et al, 2018;MUSTAFA et al, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Frequência, Intensidade E Variabilidade Pluviométrica Na Mesorregião Sudoeste Paranaense

Caldana

Martelócio

Rudke

et al. 2019

ABClima

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A variabilidade climática exerce influência significativa sobre as atividades humanas. Os eventos extremos de precipitação causam danos severos tanto no espaço urbano quanto no rural. O aumento da temperatura média da superfície global, em conjunto com eventos extremos de precipitação causam grandes incertezas na dinâmica dos impactos das condições de tempo e clima, e como se planejar para prevenir os impactos é um tema que se torna cada vez mais crucial. Dessa forma, estudos que evidenciem a variabilidade climática em diferentes escalas são fundamentais para o planejamento das atividades humanas. O estado do Paraná se encontra em uma região de transição climática com grande variação dos elementos meteorológicos, sendo essencial a compreensão destes fenômenos devido a seus possíveis impactos. Neste sentido, o objetivo deste trabalho foi analisar a variabilidade pluviométrica, a intensidade e frequência da precipitação na Mesorregião Sudoeste Paranaense - MRSPR associados ao fenômeno El Niño Oscilação Sul - ENOS. Para isso utilizou-se as escalas temporais anual, mensal e diária com o recorte temporal de 1976 a 2017. Através dos resultados, identificou-se grande discrepância nas alturas pluviométricas anuais, mensais e diárias, com parte expressiva dos eventos extremos e maiores alturas de precipitação ocorrendo em períodos de El Niño, enquanto os períodos secos predominam em condições de La Niña.

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Effects of spatial planning on future flood risks in urban environments

Cited by 125 publications

References 28 publications

Urban pluvial flood risk assessment – data resolution and spatial scale when developing screening approaches on the microscale

Urban pluvial flood risk assessment – data resolution and spatial scale when developing screening approaches on the microscale

Possibilities of Controlling the River Outlets by Weirs on the Example of Noteć Bystra River

Frequência, Intensidade E Variabilidade Pluviométrica Na Mesorregião Sudoeste Paranaense

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