Effects of growth volatility on economic performance – Empirical evidence from Turkey

Berument, Hakan; Dinçer, N. Nergiz; Mustafaoglu, Zafer

doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2011.09.026

Cited by 21 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Turkey is an emerging country. Thus, one may expect a negative impact of output growth volatility on output growth, as suggested by Keynes (1936) and Pindyck (1991), similar to the empirical studies of Ramey and Ramey (1995), Hakura (2007), and Berument, Dincer, and Mustafaoglu (2012). To determine whether the employed series are covariance stationary, as a necessary condition we perform unit root tests.…”

Section: Empirical Evidencementioning

confidence: 78%

“…In addition to these panel studies, the output volatility-growth relationship has been examined for single-country cases. For example, Berument, Dincer, and Mustafaoglu (2012) present the negative impact of growth volatility on growth for Turkey between 1987 and 2007. Tsouma (2014) investigates the negative impact for Greece from 1975 to mid-2013.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The effect of output growth volatility on output growth: empirical evidence from Turkey

Ülke

Varlık

Berument

2018

Applied Economics Letters

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This article assesses the effect of output growth volatility on output growth within a stochasticvolatility-in-mean model with a time-varying framework for an open small economy: Turkey. Until now, the empirical evidence on industrial production mainly reveals that this relationship is negative. However, in further examining different sectors and sub-sectors of industrial production, we find the sign of the relationship changes depending on the sector. Moreover, there is limited evidence that the sign of the relationship changes over time. Thus, the evidence reveals that the nature of the output growth volatility-output growth relationship is not uniform across sectors.

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Section: Empirical Evidencementioning

confidence: 78%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The effect of output growth volatility on output growth: empirical evidence from Turkey

Ülke

Varlık

Berument

2018

Applied Economics Letters

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“…More generally, the resilience of trade in services than trade in goods to shocks and financial crises is explained, on the one hand, by the lesser cyclical nature of trade in services compared to trade in goods, and on the other hand, by the lower dependence of services production and trade on external finance (Borchert and Mattoo, 2000;Arin, 2016). In this context, we could expect services export diversification to reduce output volatility (even more so than export product diversification) and to indirectly contribute positively to economic growth, as higher output volatility hurts economic growth (e.g., Acemoglu et al 2003;Antonakakis and Badinger, 2016;Badinger, 2010;Berument et al 2012;Fata, 2002;Hnatkovska and Loayza, 2005;Ramey and Ramey, 1995). Hoekman and Mattoo (2008) have argued that the impact of services trade (including services exports) on firms' productivity and on the welfare of households that buy services, increases as the variety of services improve and as the reduction in (real) prices associated with greater services specialization (outsourcing) becomes larger.…”

Section: Services Export Diversification (Concentration) and Economicmentioning

confidence: 99%

Services Export Diversification and Economic Growth

Gnangnon

2020

Preprint

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The present article investigates the effect of services export diversification on economic growth by relying on a sample of 131 countries over the period 1985-2014. The empirical results, based on the two-step system Generalized Methods of Moments (GMM), has suggested that services export diversification enhances economic growth in developing countries, whereas in High Income Countries (HICs), services export specialization promotes economic growth. Furthermore, services export diversification enhances economic growth as countries experience a rise in their services exports growth, with the magnitude of this positive effect increasing as the growth rate of services exports rises. Finally, services export diversification tends to be positively associated with economic growth, but as countries enjoy greater trade openness, they tend to enhance their services export specialization so as to enjoy higher economic growth. Interestingly, it is services export specialization that promotes economic growth as countries better integrate into the international trade market. One key message conveyed by the analysis is the importance of services export diversification (or concentration) for economic growth, including when countries further open up to international trade.

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“…(Fang & Miller, ) But mainly two types of measure have been suggested. The first one was used by Buch et al (), Carlino et al (), Berument, Dincer, and Mustafaoglu (), Bodman (). Suppose y follows the following process:

y_{t} = ρ y_{t - 1} + \in_{t}

…”

Section: National Employment Volatility: Analysis and Structural Breaksmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Some studies also address the issue in Europe. Ezcurra and Rios (2015) concentrate on relationship between volatility and regional growth in the period 1991-2011, while Fiaschi, Gianmoena, and Parenti (2017 study the determinants, especially macroeconomic and sectoral, of GDP fluctuations in Europe in the period 1992-2008.…”

Section: The Evolution Of Economic Volatilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Employment volatility in lagging and advanced regions: The Italian case

Duran

Fratesi

2019

Growth and Change

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The presence of cycles characterizes all economic systems, but economic cycles have differentiated spatial impacts. Some regions have broader cycles with respect to the country, while others tend to be less responsive to shocks and hence have narrower cycles. Being exposed to broader cycles, that is, greater volatility, may increase the strain on a regional economic system. This paper investigates the different responsiveness to cyclical forces and volatility of regions in the long run. It does so by using quarterly employment data for the Nuts2 Italian regions over almost 40 years before and during the period 1978–2016. Explored in particular are the cross‐regional variations in employment volatility and the reasons for the patterns observed, as well as whether they have changed the following different macroeconomic policy regimes. The paper identifies the break dates of different regimes, and these regime changes will be related to policy modifications, such as the implementation of the European Monetary Union. The determinants of this regional volatility appear to be quite stable, so that the changes in volatility are explained by how these determinants have changed overtime and how they are unevenly distributed in space. In particular, the lagging regions of the country suffer, in addition to lower production and income, from higher volatility due to a structure which is weaker and more unstable. Volatility can hence be an additional issue for lagging regions.

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Effects of growth volatility on economic performance – Empirical evidence from Turkey

Cited by 21 publications

References 39 publications

The effect of output growth volatility on output growth: empirical evidence from Turkey

The effect of output growth volatility on output growth: empirical evidence from Turkey

Services Export Diversification and Economic Growth

Employment volatility in lagging and advanced regions: The Italian case

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