Employment volatility in lagging and advanced regions: The Italian case

Duran, Hasan Engin; Fratesi, Ugo

doi:10.1111/grow.12351

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 73 publications

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“…The business cycles in Italy show similarly substantial structural differences in economic oscillations across regions. Some examples of these studies are Mastromarco and Woitek (2007), focusing on the period 1951-2004, and Duran and Fratesi (2020, focusing on the period 1978-2016.…”

Section: Asymmetries In Italian Regional Business Cyclesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic resilience and regionally differentiated cycles: Evidence from a turning point approach in Italy

Duran

Fratesi

2023

Papers in Regional Science

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The literature on regional resilience often neglects the timing of recessions and simply uses national cycles.Region-specific cycles and turning points might bias the results, however, and affect the choice of regions to target with policies. This paper investigates the geography and determinants of regional resilience with a regional turning point approach, using data for Italy, a country with a wellknown and sizeable regional divide. The results show that the timing of regional cycles varies substantially and that the detected resilience determinants are different across the two approaches, implying that the policy levers may be wrongly estimated with national turning points.

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Section: Asymmetries In Italian Regional Business Cyclesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic resilience and regionally differentiated cycles: Evidence from a turning point approach in Italy

Duran

Fratesi

2023

Papers in Regional Science

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“…Analyzing the sustainability of economic development implies identifying the factors determining it and testing the relevant hypotheses based on the construction of econometric relationships [20]. Spatial economy models based on panel samples of countries and regions prove the influence of intersectoral interactions and spatial effects on sustainability [14].…”

Section: Sustainability Measurement Approach Authorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic Analysis of the EU Countries Sustainability: Methods, Models, and Case Study

Lyaskovskaya,

Khalilova,

Grigorieva

2023

Mathematics

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The agenda for sustainable development actualizes sustainability analysis of countries’ social, ecological, and economic conditions, as well as the necessity of designing practical recommendations to realize the sustainable development goals (SDGs). Sustainability analysis is a part of decision making and policy development in a broad environmental, economic, and social context. That is why this analysis goes beyond simple technical assessment. In order to make sustainability a target variable in development strategies, it is necessary to use special methods combining mathematical tools and managerial content. The paper systematizes modern mathematical methods for assessing economic sustainability and proposes a methodology for the integrated assessment of the social, economic, and environmental sustainability of countries, which were tested on data from 24 EU countries over 12 periods. The case study results derived from spatial and temporal samples are consistent with the currently observed processes in the EU. The content basis is the UN concept of sustainable development, the instrumental basis is multivariate comparisons, the Mahalanobis distances method, the correlation and regression analysis, analysis of variance, time series analysis, and trends analysis. Composite indices of social, economic, and environmental sustainability of the EU countries, each of them including five indicators, were developed in this study; the levels of social, economic, and environmental sustainability of EU countries were determined, as well as individual instability indicators. Mahalanobis distances and relative and absolute sustainability indicators were calculated and determined. Cluster analysis of the EU countries by levels of social, economic, and environmental instability and Mahalanobis distances, the diagnosis of the current situation and dominant trends were carried out for testing the hypothesis that there are positive relations between the instability of development and Mahalanobis distances. Hypotheses about the relationship between instability and the level of country development, reflected in the values of socio-economic and environmental indicators, and whether countries with good values of social, environmental, and economic indicators are the most sustainable, were investigated.

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“…It is often claimed that regions which have industries more exposed to monetary policy decisions, such as manufacturing (interest rate hypothesis), those with small firms and banks (credit channel), and the ones which are more open to trade (i.e. exports) (exchange rate hypothesis), are possibly more vulnerable to policy shocks (Duran & Erdem, 2014;Duran & Fratesi, 2020;Carlino & DeFina, 1998;Taylor, 1995;Mishkin, 1996;Bernanke & Gertler, 1995;Gertler & Gilchirst, 1993;Carlino & DeFina, 1999;Oliner & Rudebusch, 1996;Kashyap & Stein, 2000).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

State-level Taylor rule and monetary policy stress

Duran

Gajewski

2023

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Research background: Taylor rule is a widely adopted approach to follow monetary policy and investigate various mechanisms related to or triggered by monetary policy. To date, no in-depth examination of scale, determinants and spillovers of state-level monetary policy stress, stemming from the Federal Reserve Board?s (Fed?s) policy has been performed. Purpose of the article: This paper aims to investigate the nature of monetary policy stress on US States delivered by the single monetary policy by using a quarterly dataset spanning the years between 1989 and 2017. Methods: We apply a wide array of time series and panel regressions, such as unit root tests, co-integration tests, co-integrating FMOLS and DOLS regressions, and Spatial Panel SAR and SEM models. Findings & value added: When average stress imposed on states is calculated, it is observed that the level of stress is moderate, but the distribution across states is asymmetric. The cross-state determinants behind the average stress show that states with a higher percentage of working-age and highly educated population, as well as those with higher population density and more export-oriented are negatively stressed (i.e. they experience excessively low interest rates), whereas higher unemployment rate contributes to a positive stress (too high interest rates). To the best of our knowledge, the contribution of this paper lies in estimating monetary policy stress at the state level and unveiling some of the determinants of this stress. Moreover, the paper makes the first attempt to empirically test spatial spillovers of the stress, which are indeed found significant and negative.

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Employment volatility in lagging and advanced regions: The Italian case

Cited by 5 publications

References 73 publications

Economic resilience and regionally differentiated cycles: Evidence from a turning point approach in Italy

Economic resilience and regionally differentiated cycles: Evidence from a turning point approach in Italy

Dynamic Analysis of the EU Countries Sustainability: Methods, Models, and Case Study

State-level Taylor rule and monetary policy stress

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