Effects of fiscal policy Shocks in CE3 countries (TVAR Approach)

Mirdala, Rajmund; Kameník, Martin

doi:10.15240/tul/001/2017-2-004

Cited by 5 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…sample was shortened to a sample covering the period since 2007, i.e., the period with serious macroeconomic turbulences (including a crisis period) in many countries; this division is similar to that in Mirdala and Kamenik (2017). The lag length test, based again on the SIC criterion, indicates the inclusion of 1 lag in the case of each country.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The latest analyses include many modifications of the VAR framework in order to capture the state-dependent effects. For example, Baum and Koester (2011), Batini, Callegari, and Melina (2012), and Mirdala and Kamenik (2017) use the threshold VAR approach to confirm the higher effects of spending shocks in recession than in expansion. The works by Auerbach and Gorodnichenko (2012) or Ben c ık (2014) employ the smooth transition VAR approach and reach the same conclusion: the effects of fiscal shocks are greater in 'bad times' than in 'good times'.…”

Section: A Brief Literature Review Of the Empirical Evidence Of The Ementioning

confidence: 99%

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Comparison of the stabilising effects of government spending shocks in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland

Szymańska

2019

Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja

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This study examines the effects of government spending shocks in three Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries: the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. The article uses structural vector autoregression (SVAR) models with an identification scheme based on that of Blanchard and Perotti (2002). The results of government spending shocks in these countries are consistent with the general view that the spending innovation increases output in the short term. The impulse response functions show that the maximum response of output to spending shocks is lagged. In order to measure the effects of fiscal shocks, the peak and cumulative multipliers are calculated. In the baseline specification, which is the same for each country, the calculated peak spending multiplier (adjusted to be interpreted in the national currency) ranges from 0.2 in the Czech Republic to more than 1 in Poland. The response of GDP to spending shock is larger than 1 cumulatively.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: A Brief Literature Review Of the Empirical Evidence Of The Ementioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of the stabilising effects of government spending shocks in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland

Szymańska

2019

Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja

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“…Herndon et al (2014) pedig arra hivatkoznak, hogy Reinhart és Rogoff adattisztítási és súlyozási módszertani hibákat vétettek, ami arra vezetett, hogy egészében sokkal szélesebb skálán mozoghat az érintett országok növekedése. Minsky (1992) hipotézise szerint a pénzügyi piacok hajlamosak az instabilitásra, a piacgazdaságok keretében gyakran képződhetnek buborékok. Ha valamilyen ok folytán felpezsdül a befektetési piac, akkor magas hozamokat várnak az adott befektetési fajtától, így folyamatosan újra és újra visszaforgatják befekteté-3.…”

Section: A Hiszterézis a Pénzügyi Válságok éS A Ciklusok Kapcsolataunclassified

Fejezetek a hiszterézisre vonatkozó közgazdasági elméletekből

Posgay¹,

Regős²,

Horváth³

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Analysis of the effects of fiscal policy shocks in the Baltic region

Szymańska

2022

Journal of International Studies

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The study aims to compare the effects of fiscal policy shocks in three Baltic countries – Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania - within SVAR framework, using the identification scheme proposed by Blanchard and Perotti (2002). The time sample covers quarterly data over the period of 2002q1-2019q4. The main idea of the study is to identify the effects of fiscal policy shocks in three euro area member states under a single monetary policy of the European Central Bank, but with country-specific fiscal policy shaped by the European fiscal framework. The results show that, generally, in the short term (up to four quarters), output reacts consistently with the Keynesian view, emphasizing the importance of using discretionary fiscal policy tools in stimulating economic activity in the Baltic region. However, in Estonia and Latvia, the calculated impact multipliers for net taxes are larger than spending multipliers. Although each country reacts differently to its country-specific fiscal shock, the response to the euro area money market interest rate innovation is quite similar with respect to the direction of the effect, which may indicate the robustness of the Baltic region in terms of the euro area shocks. Thus, the results emphasize the importance of conducting domestic fiscal policy adapted to the conditions of each of the analysed economies. Based on the assumptions and the methodology used in this study, the obtained findings show the limited effects of spending on Baltic economies in comparison with the effects caused by the shocks in net taxes. Moreover, due to the lack of large-scale analysis regarding the effectiveness of fiscal policy in Baltic states, the obtained results are a valuable contribution to the debate about the ‘appropriate’ size of the fiscal multipliers for the Baltic region.

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Effects of fiscal policy Shocks in CE3 countries (TVAR Approach)

Cited by 5 publications

References 15 publications

Comparison of the stabilising effects of government spending shocks in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland

Comparison of the stabilising effects of government spending shocks in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland

Fejezetek a hiszterézisre vonatkozó közgazdasági elméletekből

Analysis of the effects of fiscal policy shocks in the Baltic region

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