In this study, the fiber-shift method is presented to generate the three-dimensional geometric model of carbon fiber needled felt, and curved carbon fiber is regarded as beam under pure bending. The finite mixture model is applied to describe the fiber length distribution for the experiments and models. Closed model, open model and cut model are proposed, and cut model is thought to be more close to reality. A series of analytical methods are proposed to investigate the full-scale three-dimensional geometric model. The fiber-length distributions of cut models with different dimensions are obtained. The results show that, with the increasing of border length of cut model, the percentage of carbon fiber been cut is getting smaller, and the average fiber length is increased. In addition, the compression and needling process of pre-needling technique are simulated, and the needling hole obtained by simulation is similar to reality.